The 6D Bias and the Equity Premium Puzzle

If decision costs lead agents to update consumption every D periods, then econometricians will find an anomalously low correlation between equity returns and consumption growth (Lynch 1996). We analytically characterize the dynamic properties of an economy composed of consumers who have such delayed updating. In our setting, an econometrician using an Euler equation procedure would infer a coefficient of relative risk aversion biased up by a factor of 6D. Hence with quarterly data, if agents adjust their consumption every D = 4 quarters, the imputed coefficient of relative risk aversion will be 24 times greater than the true value. High levels of risk aversion implied by the equity premium and violations of the Hansen-Jagannathan bounds cease to be puzzles. The neoclassical model with delayed adjustment explains the consumption behavior of shareholders. Once limited participation is taken into account, the model matches most properties of aggregate consumption and equity returns, including new evidence that the covariance between ln(Ct+h/Ct) and Rt+1 slowly rises with h.

An analysis of the dynamics of efficiency of mutual funds

This paper studies the efficiency of a sample of mutual funds that invest in the United States. Estimating a production function using Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis, we find evidence that the underlying technology presents economies of scale both at the fund and firm level. We also find evidence that informational asymmetries affect efficiency. Funds that invest domestically are likely to be more efficient than foreign funds investing in the US. Moreover, an inspection at the distribution process shows that funds sold directly to investors rather than by financial intermediaries are more efficient. The level of inefficiency persistence is overall high.Persistency of inefficiency is particularly higher for ethical funds, funds oriented to large firm sand lower in funds oriented to growth firms. The analysis done in two separate periods also shows that the efficiency of the funds changes. In particular, funds oriented to non-ethical, small and growth firms become more efficient over the period. Finally, funds' efficiency decreases during global financial crisis, but at the end of the sample period some funds recover and their efficiency levels are higher than those registered before the financial crisis. Our results have implications for investors' decisions in mutual funds.The authors acknowledge financial support from Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia PEst-OE/EGE/UI0315/2011 and from the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science, research project ECO2012-3240

Estimating the intensity of choice in a dynamic mutual fund allocation decision

The paper analyzes the intensity of choice in an agent based financial optimization problem. Mean-variance optimizing agents choose among mutual funds of similar styles but varying performance. We specify a model for the allocation of new funds, switching between funds, and withdrawals and obtain statistically significant estimates of the intensity of choice parameter. This estimate is also given economic interpretation through the underperformance of funds that use an active style. We find that agents with relative risk aversion of 2 will move 1% of their funds from active to passive for an extra 34 basis points of return. © 2008

Tell-tale tails: A data driven approach to estimate unique market information shares

The trading of securities on multiple markets raises the question of each market's share in the discovery of the informationally efficient price. We exploit salient distributional features of multivariate financial price processes to uniquely determine these contributions. Thereby we resolve the main drawback of the widely used Hasbrouck (1995) methodology which merely delivers upper and lower bounds of a market's information share. When these bounds diverge, as is the case in many applications, informational leadership becomes blurred. We show how fat tails and tail dependence of price changes, which emerge as a result of differences in market design and liquidity, can be exploited to estimate unique information shares. The empirical application of the new methodology emphasizes the leading role of the credit derivatives market compared to the corporate bond market in pricing credit risk during the pre-crisis period. --price discovery,information share,fat tails,tail dependence,liquidity,credit risk

Analyzing Firm Performance in the Insurance Industry Using Frontier Efficiency Methods

In this introductory chapter to an upcoming book, the authors discuss the two principal types of efficiency frontier methodologies - the econometric (parametric) approach and the mathematical programming (non-parametric) approach. Frontier efficiency methodologies are discussed as useful in a variety of contexts: they can be used for testing economic hypotheses; providing guidance to regulators and policymakers; comparimg economic performance across countries; and informing management of the effects of procedures and strategies adapted by the firm. The econometric approach requires the specification of a production, cost, revenue, or profit function as well as assumptions about error terms. But this methodology is vulnerable to errors in the specification of the functional form or error term. The mathematical programming or linear programming approach avoids this type of error and measures any departure from the frontier as a relative inefficiency. Because each of these methods has advantages and disadvantages, it is recommended to estimate efficiency using more than one method. An important step in efficiency analysis is the definition of inputs and outputs and their prices. Insurer inputs can be classified into three principal groups: labor, business services and materials, and capital. Three principal approaches have been used to measure outputs in the financial services sector: the asset or intermediation approach, the user-cost approach, and the value-added approach. The asset approach treats firms as pure financial intermediaries and would be inappropriate for insurers because they provide other services. The user-cost method determines whether a financial product is an input or output based on its net contribution to the revenues of the firm. This method requires precise data on products, revenues and opportunity costs which are difficult to estimate in insurance. The value-added approach is judged the most appropriate method for studying insurance efficiency. it considers all asset and liability categories to have some output characteristics rather than distinguishing inputs from outputs. In order to measure efficiency in the insurance industry in which outputs are mostly intangible, measurable services must be defined. The three principal services provided by insurance companies are risk pooling and risk-bearing, "real" financial services relating to insured losses, and intermediation. The authors discuss how these services can be measured as outputs in value-added analysis. They then summarize existing efficiency literature.

Investor Behavior and Fund Performance under a Privatized Retirement Accounts System: Evidence from Chile

In the U.S. and in Chile, there have been heated debates about the relative merits of a decentralized privatized pension system relative to a more traditional social security system. On the firm side, there are concerns that pension funds engage in anticompetitive behavior and take advantage of consumers’ by charging high fees and account maintenance changes. On the consumer side, there are concerns that consumers do not select wisely among funds and take on too much risk. Any pension system with insurance features to protect against low levels of pension accumulations is potentially subject to moral hazard problems, in the form of consumers’ taking on too much risk. In the case of Chile, the government provides a minimum pension benefit to those with low pension accumulations, which can make some consumers more willing to take risks. For these reasons, the Chilean government introduced regulations on pension fund firms’ investments designed to limit risk. This paper analyzes the determinants of consumers’ choices of pension fund and of pension fund characteristics (performance and fees), taking into account governmental regulations. In particular, it estimates a demand and supply model of the pension fund investment market using a longitudinal household dataset gathered in 2002 and 2004 in Chile, administrative data on fund choices, and longitudinal data on cost determinants of pension funds. We find that the existing regulation actually increases the level of risk in the market, reduces heterogeneity across firms, and reduces incentives for consumers to participate in the pension fund program. We suggest alternative more effective forms of regulation.

The Cross-Section of Investing Skill

Building on insights from the economics of superstars, I develop an efficient method for estimating the skill of mutual fund managers. Outliers are especially helpful for disentangling skill from luck when I explicitly model the cross-sectional distribution of managerial skill using a flexible and realistic function. Forecasted performance is dramatically improved relative to standard regression estimates: an investor selecting (avoiding) the best (worst) decile of funds would improve risk-adjusted performance by 2% (3%) annually. The distribution of skill is found to be fat-tailed and positively skewed, providing a theoretical explanation for the convexity of fund flows