CenTime: Event-conditional modelling of censoring in survival analysis

Survival analysis is a valuable tool for estimating the time until specific events, such as death or cancer recurrence, based on baseline observations. This is particularly useful in healthcare to prognostically predict clinically important events based on patient data. However, existing approaches often have limitations; some focus only on ranking patients by survivability, neglecting to estimate the actual event time, while others treat the problem as a classification task, ignoring the inherent time-ordered structure of the events. Additionally, the effective utilisation of censored samples−data points where the event time is unknown− is essential for enhancing the model's predictive accuracy. In this paper, we introduce CenTime, a novel approach to survival analysis that directly estimates the time to event. Our method features an innovative event-conditional censoring mechanism that performs robustly even when uncensored data is scarce. We demonstrate that our approach forms a consistent estimator for the event model parameters, even in the absence of uncensored data. Furthermore, CenTime is easily integrated with deep learning models with no restrictions on batch size or the number of uncensored samples. We compare our approach to standard survival analysis methods, including the Cox proportional-hazard model and DeepHit. Our results indicate that CenTime offers state-of-the-art performance in predicting time-to-death while maintaining comparable ranking performance. Our implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/ahmedhshahin/CenTime

Deep Learning versus Classical Regression for Brain Tumor Patient Survival Prediction

Deep learning for regression tasks on medical imaging data has shown promising results. However, compared to other approaches, their power is strongly linked to the dataset size. In this study, we evaluate 3D-convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and classical regression methods with hand-crafted features for survival time regression of patients with high grade brain tumors. The tested CNNs for regression showed promising but unstable results. The best performing deep learning approach reached an accuracy of 51.5% on held-out samples of the training set. All tested deep learning experiments were outperformed by a Support Vector Classifier (SVC) using 30 radiomic features. The investigated features included intensity, shape, location and deep features. The submitted method to the BraTS 2018 survival prediction challenge is an ensemble of SVCs, which reached a cross-validated accuracy of 72.2% on the BraTS 2018 training set, 57.1% on the validation set, and 42.9% on the testing set. The results suggest that more training data is necessary for a stable performance of a CNN model for direct regression from magnetic resonance images, and that non-imaging clinical patient information is crucial along with imaging information.Comment: Contribution to The International Multimodal Brain Tumor Segmentation (BraTS) Challenge 2018, survival prediction tas