Cracking the Network Code: Four Principles for Grantmakers

As grantmakers and nonprofits are looking for ways to collaborate more effectively, many are experimenting working with and through networks to achieve greater impact. Because networks are by definition loosely controlled and emergent, understanding how to effectively support them feels like a mystery to many grantmakers.GEO's newest publication sets out to crack the code behind the network mystique. In fact, there is a method to working more efficiently and effectively through networks, and a critical first step for grantmakers is adopting a network mindset, which may require dramatic shifts in attitude and behavior for some. "Cracking the Network Code" outlines four principles that comprise the network mindset, illustrates the principles with a range of examples of networks that have achieved real results, and offers practical questions and recommendations to help grantmakers achieve the benefits and avoid common pitfalls of working through networks

Deliberated Intuition for Groups : An Explanatory Model for Crowd Predictions in the Domain of Stock-Price Forecasting

Crowd predictions in the domain of stock-price forecasting is a fascinating concept. Several special-interest online communities were founded following this idea. However, there is a limited body of literature about the domain of stock-price predictions based on such a crowdsourced approach. This paper presents an empirical study in the form of a two-phase, sequential mixed-methods experiment. Data from purposefully designed groups, consisting of lay people and professional financial analysts, were examined to inform the understanding of the prediction process. The findings led to an explanatory model, which we introduce as -˜deliberated intuition for groups’. The model of deliberated intuition for groups, which is proposed here, views prediction as a process of practice which will be different for each individual and group. The model proposes that a predictor will decide, consciously or semi-consciously, either to rely on gut-feeling or to undertake more analysis

Expert Stock Picker: The Wisdom of (Experts in) Crowds

The phrase the wisdom of crowds suggests that good verdicts can be achieved by averaging the opinions and insights of large, diverse groups of people who possess varied types of information. Online user-generated content enables researchers to view the opinions of large numbers of users publicly. These opinions, in the form of reviews and votes, can be used to automatically generate remarkably accurate verdicts-collective estimations of future performance-about companies, products, and people on the Web to resolve very tough problems. The wealth and richness of user-generated content may enable firms and individuals to aggregate consumer-think for better business understanding. Our main contribution, here applied to user-generated stock pick votes from a widely used online financial newsletter, is a genetic algorithm approach that can be used to identify the appropriate vote weights for users based on their prior individual voting success. Our method allows us to identify and rank experts within the crowd, enabling better stock pick decisions than the S&P 500. We show that the online crowd performs better, on average, than the S&P 500 for two test time periods, 2008 and 2009, in terms of both overall returns and risk-adjusted returns, as measured by the Sharpe ratio. Furthermore, we show that giving more weight to the votes of the experts in the crowds increases the accuracy of the verdicts, yielding an even greater return in the same time periods. We test our approach by utilizing more than three years of publicly available stock pick data. We compare our method to approaches derived from both the computer science and finance literature. We believe that our approach can be generalized to other domains where user opinions are publicly available early and where those opinions can be evaluated. For example, YouTube video ratings may be used to predict downloads, or online reviewer ratings on Digg may be used to predict the success or popularity of a story

Development of a Decision Support System for Collective Stock Market Intelligence

Internet discussion sites have become an enduring feature of modern asset markets. While prior research demonstrated a strong link between communicative practices and market behaviour, more work is required to fully understand the processes that support knowledge co-creation in these environments. To address this gap, we propose a research project to (1) Identify the factors that drive communication and influence knowledge co-creation, (2) examine how systematic variations in these factors influence investment and trading decisions, and (3) develop a decision support tool that combines communication analysis and what-if scenario modelling to forecast impacts on capital markets. The practical goals for this project are to help improve investor decision-making and assist regulators through better detection of market manipulation

Count the Limbs: Designing Robust Aggregation Clauses in Sovereign Bonds

On August 29, 2014, the International Capital Market Association (ICMA) published new recommended terms for sovereign bond contracts governed by English law. One of the new terms would allow a super majority of creditors to approve a debtor’s restructuring proposal in one vote across multiple bond series. The vote could bind all bond holders, even if a series voted unanimously against restructuring, so long as enough holders in the other series voted for it. An apparently technical change, awkwardly named “single-limb aggregated collective action clauses (CACs)” promised to eliminate free-riders for the first time in the history of sovereign bond restructuring. It could also open up new possibilities for abuse. The markets might have rebelled. Instead, they yawned … and proceeded to adopt the new terms. We consider why such consequential contract change met with less resistance than its relatively modest predecessors, series-by-series and two-limb aggregated CACs. We focus on contract design, and the process by which it came about. Most of the essay is devoted to analyzing the key features of single-limb aggregated CACs and the considerations that shaped decisions about these features. We conclude with observations on contract reform in sovereign debt restructuring and the challenges ahead

Scientific Advice to Public Policy-Making

A feature of policy-making today is its dependence on scientific advice to deliver public policies that are robust, credible, and effective. This paper discusses how policy-making profits from scientific advice in areas where science and technology are significant. Particular attention is given to issues holding a high level of uncertainty, either because of inherent variability, because science is incomplete or controversial, or because data are inadequate to support a definitive answer. First, we analyse the social context that characterises the relationship between science and policy-making, with a focus on the decrease of public confidence in politicians and scientists. Second, we compare three different sets of guidelines on the collection and use of expertise in policy-making (issued by the UK, Canada and the European Commission, respectively) and identify two different approaches to scientific advice in policy-making. Third, based on a set of cross-national and multi-disciplinary case studies, we look at how the relationship between science and policy-making works in practice and propose a set of recommendations towards the establishment of a more robust and effective policy-making process.Scientific advice, Policy-making, Expertise

Corporate governance in Central and Eastern Europe : lessons from advanced market economies

Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring,Private Participation in Infrastructure,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Small Scale Enterprise,Economic Theory&Research

Stability and Growth Pact: Stability without growth?.

No abstract is available for this item.