131,680 research outputs found

    Modelling project feasibility robustness by use of scenarios

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    Key words: Evaluation, Scenario, Uncertainty, Multi-Modal Abstract: This paper presents the application of a new scenario based analysis technique which has been developed for transport infrastructure planning. The approach aims at dealing with uncertainty in the planning environment in a more systematic way than is usually the case when applying scenario analysis. Specifically, the developed scenario approach secures a consistent inclusion of actual scenario elements in the quantitative impact modelling and facilitates a transparent project feasibility robustness analysis. The approach has been implemented in a SCENARIO MANAGER as part of an infrastructure planning decision support system which comprises GIS-related impact models embedded in a tool-box applicable to multi-modal transport investment analysis. Following a brief introduction, the next section of the paper outlines a conceptual scenario model which categorises project uncertainties into three main groups: Objective, adaptive and subjective uncertainty. This model illustrates the correlation between the scenario definition and the uncertainty in the planning environment. This scenario approach distinguishes itself from usual single dominant issue scenarios or prognoses as it is based on thematic scenario writing. In the case presented, four scenarios are introduced which have been developed in a recent Danish scenario study: (I) the market-oriented society, (II) the locally-oriented society, (III) the supra-national society and (IV) the technological society. Each scenario is then analysed as concerns its impact on a set of relevant project evaluation criteria. The criteria used stem from the on-going EUNET project funded by the European Commission DGVII, within the Strategic Transport part of the Fourth Framework Programme. Section three of the paper demonstrates the application of the systematic scenario analysis technique by means of a case study. The case concerns multi-modal evaluation of the Harbour Tunnel under the Copenhagen harbour. One-third of central Copenhagen is divided from the rest by the harbour. Presently, the harbour has four road bridge crossings and one rail bridge crossing. The investment in question concerns a fifth road tunnel at the entrance of the harbour, which aims at forming a complete high standard road systems around Copenhagen while at the same time reducing the environmental impacts to the medieval town centre. Four different solutions to the inclusion of the new Harbour Tunnel in the road network are examined. The concept of scenario profiling is introduced, which in an operational manner examines the project robustness related to each of the four project alternatives. The scenario profile gives a comprehensive description of the scenario implications for the socio-economic feasibility of each project alternative. Through a systematic, scenario based set of weights, the overall project robustness is determined. The final section five presents conclusions and recommendations. It is stated that the scenario approach presented is a valuable aid in assisting decision making on transport investment planning. The area for future research into the further integration of model uncertainty with scenario based robustness evaluations, is outlined.

    Evaluation of management strategies for the operation of high-speed railways in China

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    High-Speed Train (HST) operations have recently been introduced in rail passenger transportation markets worldwide. Although the technologies for such operations have levelled at speeds of around 300 km/h, the operating parameters to be adopted in each application will differ from country to country. The operating environment will be one of the crucial success factors for the implementation of HST operations in China. This paper compares three different management/ownership models which might be used in China. The paper analyzes the characteristics of each model and proposes an optimal plan of an operational system to develop HST operations in China by using a hierarchy goals achievement matrix approach

    WHY FUZZY ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS APPROACH FOR TRANSPORT PROBLEMS?

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    The evaluation of transport projects has become increasingly complex. Different aspects have to be taken into account and the consequences of the problems are usually far reaching and the different policy alternatives are numerous and difficult to predict. Several pressure or action groups have also emerged causing an even more complex decision making process. The use of multi criteria analysis for the evaluation of transport projects has increased due to this increasing complexity of the problem situation. At the same time, the importance of stakeholders within this evaluation process should have been recognized. Researches on transport projects are generally carried out to provide information to policymakers that have to operate within restrictive parameters (political, economical, social, etc…). Researchers should therefore take greater account of the different priorities of stakeholders such as policymakers, private enterprises and households. These stakeholders should be incorporated explicitly in the evaluation process. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is one of the Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision Making methods. It can be applied in a very broad range of applications of decision problems. Logistics, urban planning, public politics, marketing, finance, education, economics are a part of this wide application area. In transport subjects it can be used for the evaluation of transport policy measures or decision making problems. Due to its wide range application area, it has been an exciting research subject for many different field researchers. The aim of this paper is to introduce AHP method and to offer how to benefit it for the preference of urban planners in transport problems. This paper is composed of two main parts. First part consists of the literature survey regarding with the AHP and its application areas. The advantage of methods had been mentioned. Second part focuses on a sample application of AHP technique. The study uses AHP technique to determine the selection criteria in the transhipment port selection decision-making process. Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, Multi criteria analysis, Transshipment port selection.

    Online korean skincare decision support system

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    Despite the explosive growth of electronic commerce and the rapidly increasing number of consumers who use interactive media for pre-purchase information search and online shopping, very little is known about how consumers make purchase decisions in such settings. One desirable form of interactivity from a consumer perspective is the implementation of sophisticated tools to assist shoppers in their purchase decisions by customizing the electronic shopping environment to their individual preferences

    A hybrid Delphi-SWOT paradigm for oil and gas pipeline strategic planning in Caspian Sea basin

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    The Caspian Sea basin holds large quantities of both oil and natural gas that could help meet the increasing global demand for energy resources. Consequently, the oil and gas potential of the region has attracted the attention of the international oil and gas industry. The key to realizing the energy producing potential of the region is the development of transnational export routes to take oil and gas from the landlocked Caspian Sea basin to world markets. The evaluation and selection of alternative transnational export routes is a complex multi-criteria problem with conflicting objectives. The decision makers (DMs) are required to consider a vast amount of information concerning internal strengths and weaknesses of the alternative routes as well as external opportunities and threats to them. This paper presents a hybrid model that combines strength, weakness, opportunity and threat (SWOT) analysis with the Delphi metho

    The evaluation of E-business related technologies in the Railway Industry

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    For the purposes of this paper, e-business is defined as: "the performance, automisation and organisation of transactions, or chains of them, and the gathering and publishing of data, electronically over a communication protocol" Little research has been conducted either into how e-business technology can be successfully evaluated, or into the associated costs and benefits specifically related to the transportation and railway industries. Based upon a review of the current literature and a series of interviews held with railway operators, track managers and transportation customers from the Australian Fortune 100, the paper puts forward a framework for the evaluation of e-business investments within the railway industry. The research reported here is aimed at developing a flexible interface that enables the decision maker to assess and evaluate a wide variety of complex interacting variables. The proposed approach uses a variety of evaluation methods, as opposed to searching for a single "best" approach. Additionally, an attempt is being made to include the complex interaction between the implementation of the new technology and the changing organisational setting. A model is proposed using fuzzy logic to handle incomplete and uncertain knowledge; as well as to combine criteria within a conceptual model from which "real-worth" evaluations can be performed. This model provides a systematic approach to guide the decision maker in the deployment of e-business and emerging technologies in the industry. After discussing the main findings from a literature review on the use of evaluation frameworks in IT related projects, the paper deals with the proposed framework in detail. The use of empirical data, which was obtained transportation customers to help define the main framework factors, is also discussed. Finally, the paper summarises the main implications for rail freight of customers’s perceptions and stated needs in the e-business domain

    The design of aircraft using the decision support problem technique

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    The Decision Support Problem Technique for unified design, manufacturing and maintenance is being developed at the Systems Design Laboratory at the University of Houston. This involves the development of a domain-independent method (and the associated software) that can be used to process domain-dependent information and thereby provide support for human judgment. In a computer assisted environment, this support is provided in the form of optimal solutions to Decision Support Problems
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