6,395 research outputs found
Optimal Uncertainty Quantification
We propose a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which
the UQ objectives and the assumptions/information set are brought to the
forefront. This framework, which we call \emph{Optimal Uncertainty
Quantification} (OUQ), is based on the observation that, given a set of
assumptions and information about the problem, there exist optimal bounds on
uncertainties: these are obtained as values of well-defined optimization
problems corresponding to extremizing probabilities of failure, or of
deviations, subject to the constraints imposed by the scenarios compatible with
the assumptions and information. In particular, this framework does not
implicitly impose inappropriate assumptions, nor does it repudiate relevant
information. Although OUQ optimization problems are extremely large, we show
that under general conditions they have finite-dimensional reductions. As an
application, we develop \emph{Optimal Concentration Inequalities} (OCI) of
Hoeffding and McDiarmid type. Surprisingly, these results show that
uncertainties in input parameters, which propagate to output uncertainties in
the classical sensitivity analysis paradigm, may fail to do so if the transfer
functions (or probability distributions) are imperfectly known. We show how,
for hierarchical structures, this phenomenon may lead to the non-propagation of
uncertainties or information across scales. In addition, a general algorithmic
framework is developed for OUQ and is tested on the Caltech surrogate model for
hypervelocity impact and on the seismic safety assessment of truss structures,
suggesting the feasibility of the framework for important complex systems. The
introduction of this paper provides both an overview of the paper and a
self-contained mini-tutorial about basic concepts and issues of UQ.Comment: 90 pages. Accepted for publication in SIAM Review (Expository
Research Papers). See SIAM Review for higher quality figure
Graphical Models for Optimal Power Flow
Optimal power flow (OPF) is the central optimization problem in electric
power grids. Although solved routinely in the course of power grid operations,
it is known to be strongly NP-hard in general, and weakly NP-hard over tree
networks. In this paper, we formulate the optimal power flow problem over tree
networks as an inference problem over a tree-structured graphical model where
the nodal variables are low-dimensional vectors. We adapt the standard dynamic
programming algorithm for inference over a tree-structured graphical model to
the OPF problem. Combining this with an interval discretization of the nodal
variables, we develop an approximation algorithm for the OPF problem. Further,
we use techniques from constraint programming (CP) to perform interval
computations and adaptive bound propagation to obtain practically efficient
algorithms. Compared to previous algorithms that solve OPF with optimality
guarantees using convex relaxations, our approach is able to work for arbitrary
distribution networks and handle mixed-integer optimization problems. Further,
it can be implemented in a distributed message-passing fashion that is scalable
and is suitable for "smart grid" applications like control of distributed
energy resources. We evaluate our technique numerically on several benchmark
networks and show that practical OPF problems can be solved effectively using
this approach.Comment: To appear in Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on
Principles and Practice of Constraint Programming (CP 2016
Applications of sensitivity analysis for probit stochastic network equilibrium
Network equilibrium models are widely used by traffic practitioners to aid them in making decisions concerning the operation and management of traffic networks. The common practice is to test a prescribed range of hypothetical changes or policy measures through adjustments to the input data, namely the trip demands, the arc performance (travel time) functions, and policy variables such as tolls or signal timings. Relatively little use is, however, made of the full implicit relationship between model inputs and outputs inherent in these models. By exploiting the representation of such models as an equivalent optimisation problem, classical results on the sensitivity analysis of non-linear programs may be applied, to produce linear relationships between input data perturbations and model outputs. We specifically focus on recent results relating to the probit Stochastic User Equilibrium (PSUE) model, which has the advantage of greater behavioural realism and flexibility relative to the conventional Wardrop user equilibrium and logit SUE models. The paper goes on to explore four applications of these sensitivity expressions in gaining insight into the operation of road traffic networks. These applications are namely: identification of sensitive, ‘critical’ parameters; computation of approximate, re-equilibrated solutions following a change (post-optimisation); robustness analysis of model forecasts to input data errors, in the form of confidence interval estimation; and the solution of problems of the bi-level, optimal network design variety. Finally, numerical experiments applying these methods are reported
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