Optimal treatment allocations in space and time for on-line control of an emerging infectious disease

A key component in controlling the spread of an epidemic is deciding where, whenand to whom to apply an intervention.We develop a framework for using data to informthese decisionsin realtime.We formalize a treatment allocation strategy as a sequence of functions, oneper treatment period, that map up-to-date information on the spread of an infectious diseaseto a subset of locations where treatment should be allocated. An optimal allocation strategyoptimizes some cumulative outcome, e.g. the number of uninfected locations, the geographicfootprint of the disease or the cost of the epidemic. Estimation of an optimal allocation strategyfor an emerging infectious disease is challenging because spatial proximity induces interferencebetween locations, the number of possible allocations is exponential in the number oflocations, and because disease dynamics and intervention effectiveness are unknown at outbreak.We derive a Bayesian on-line estimator of the optimal allocation strategy that combinessimulation–optimization with Thompson sampling.The estimator proposed performs favourablyin simulation experiments. This work is motivated by and illustrated using data on the spread ofwhite nose syndrome, which is a highly fatal infectious disease devastating bat populations inNorth America

Faster quantum mixing for slowly evolving sequences of Markov chains

Markov chain methods are remarkably successful in computational physics, machine learning, and combinatorial optimization. The cost of such methods often reduces to the mixing time, i.e., the time required to reach the steady state of the Markov chain, which scales as $\delta^{-1}$, the inverse of the spectral gap. It has long been conjectured that quantum computers offer nearly generic quadratic improvements for mixing problems. However, except in special cases, quantum algorithms achieve a run-time of $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{\delta^{-1}} \sqrt{N})$, which introduces a costly dependence on the Markov chain size $N,$ not present in the classical case. Here, we re-address the problem of mixing of Markov chains when these form a slowly evolving sequence. This setting is akin to the simulated annealing setting and is commonly encountered in physics, material sciences and machine learning. We provide a quantum memory-efficient algorithm with a run-time of $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{\delta^{-1}} \sqrt[4]{N})$, neglecting logarithmic terms, which is an important improvement for large state spaces. Moreover, our algorithms output quantum encodings of distributions, which has advantages over classical outputs. Finally, we discuss the run-time bounds of mixing algorithms and show that, under certain assumptions, our algorithms are optimal.Comment: 20 pages, 2 figure

Automated Design of Metaheuristic Algorithms: A Survey

Metaheuristics have gained great success in academia and practice because their search logic can be applied to any problem with available solution representation, solution quality evaluation, and certain notions of locality. Manually designing metaheuristic algorithms for solving a target problem is criticized for being laborious, error-prone, and requiring intensive specialized knowledge. This gives rise to increasing interest in automated design of metaheuristic algorithms. With computing power to fully explore potential design choices, the automated design could reach and even surpass human-level design and could make high-performance algorithms accessible to a much wider range of researchers and practitioners. This paper presents a broad picture of automated design of metaheuristic algorithms, by conducting a survey on the common grounds and representative techniques in terms of design space, design strategies, performance evaluation strategies, and target problems in this field

Pseudorehearsal in actor-critic agents with neural network function approximation

Catastrophic forgetting has a significant negative impact in reinforcement learning. The purpose of this study is to investigate how pseudorehearsal can change performance of an actor-critic agent with neural-network function approximation. We tested agent in a pole balancing task and compared different pseudorehearsal approaches. We have found that pseudorehearsal can assist learning and decrease forgetting

Pseudorehearsal in actor-critic agents with neural network function approximation

Catastrophic forgetting has a significant negative impact in reinforcement learning. The purpose of this study is to investigate how pseudorehearsal can change performance of an actor-critic agent with neural-network function approximation. We tested agent in a pole balancing task and compared different pseudorehearsal approaches. We have found that pseudorehearsal can assist learning and decrease forgetting