A methodology for airplane parameter estimation and confidence interval determination in nonlinear estimation problems

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. With the fitted surface, sensitivity information can be updated at each iteration with less computational effort than that required by either a finite-difference method or integration of the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, and thus provides flexibility to use model equations in any convenient format. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. The degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels and to predict the degree of agreement between CR bounds and search estimates

Sensor Path Planning for Emitter Localization

The localization of a radio frequency (RF) emitter is relevant in many military and civilian applications. The recent decade has seen a rapid progress in the development of small and mobile unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), which offer a way to perform emitter localization autonomously. The path a UAV travels influences the localization significantly, making path planning an important part of a mobile emitter localization system. The topic of this thesis is path planning for a UAV that uses bearing measurements to localize a stationary emitter. Using a directional antenna, the direction towards the target can be determined by the UAV rotating around its own vertical axis. During this rotation the UAV is required to remain at the same position, which induces a trade-off between movement and measurement that influences the optimal trajectories. This thesis derives a novel path planning algorithm for localizing an emitter with a UAV. It improves the current state of the art by providing a localization with defined accuracy in a shorter amount of time compared to other algorithms in simulations. The algorithm uses the policy rollout principle to perform a nonmyopic planning and to incorporate the uncertainty of the estimation process into its decision. The concept of an action selection algorithm for policy rollout is introduced, which allows the use of existing optimization algorithms to effectively search the action space. Multiple action selection algorithms are compared to optimize the speed of the path planning algorithm. Similarly, to reduce computational demand, an adaptive grid-based localizer has been developed. To evaluate the algorithm an experimental system has been built and the algorithm was tested on this system. Based on initial experiments, the path planning algorithm has been modified, including a minimal distance to the emitter and an outlier detection step. The resulting algorithm shows promising results in experimental flights