Integrating Random Shocks Into Multi-State Physics Models of Degradation Processes for Component Reliability Assessment

International audienceWe extend a multi-state physics model (MSPM) framework for component reliability assessment by including semi-Markov and random shock processes. Two mutually ex-clusive types of random shocks are considered: extreme, and cumulative. Extreme shocks lead the component to immediate failure, whereas cumulative shocks simply affect the component degradation rates. General dependences between the degradation and the two types of random shocks are considered. A Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is implemented to compute component state probabilities. An illustrative example is presented, and a sensitivity analysis is conducted on the model parameters. The results show that our extended model is able to characterize the influences of different types of random shocks onto the component state probabilities and the reliability estimates

A discrete MMAP for analysing the behaviour of a multi-state complex dynamic system subject to multiple events.

A complex multi-state system subject to different types of failures, repairable and/or nonrepairable, external shocks and preventive maintenance is modelled by considering a discrete Markovian arrival process with marked arrivals (D-MMAP). The internal performance of the system is composed of several degradation states partitioned into minor and major damage states according to the risk of failure. Random external events can produce failures throughout the system. If an external shock occurs, there may be an aggravation of the internal degradation, cumulative external damage or extreme external failure. The internal performance and the cumulative external damage are observed by random inspection. If major degradation is observed, the unit goes to the repair facility for preventive maintenance. If a repairable failure occurs then the system goes to corrective repair with different time distributions depending on the failure state. Time distributions for corrective repair and preventive maintenance depend on the failure state. Rewards and costs depending on the state at which the device failed or was inspected are introduced. The system is modelled and several measures of interest are built into transient and stationary regimes. A preventive maintenance policy is shown to determine the effectiveness of preventive maintenance and the optimum state of internal and cumulative external damage at which preventive maintenance should be taken into account. A numerical example is presented, revealing the efficacy of the model. Correlations between the numbers of different events over time and in non-overlapping intervals are calculated. The results are expressed in algorithmic-matrix form and are implemented computationally with Matlab.Junta de Andalucía, Spain, under the grant FQM307Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, España, MTM2017-88708-PEuropean Regional Development Fund (ERDF

Dynamic Reliability Models for Multiple Dependent Competing Degradation Processes

International audienceThis paper presents a holistic treatment to multiple dependent competing degradation processes, by employing the piecewise-deterministic Markov process (PDMP) modeling framework. The proposed method can handle the dependencies between physics-based models, between multi-state models and between these two types of models. A Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is developed to compute the components/systems reliability. A case study on one subsystem of the residual heat removal system (RHRS) of a nuclear power plant is illustrated

Maintenance Optimization and Inspection Planning of Wind Energy Assets: Models, Methods and Strategies

Designing cost-effective inspection and maintenance programmes for wind energy farms is a complex task involving a high degree of uncertainty due to diversity of assets and their corresponding damage mechanisms and failure modes, weather-dependent transport conditions, unpredictable spare parts demand, insufficient space or poor accessibility for maintenance and repair, limited availability of resources in terms of equipment and skilled manpower, etc. In recent years, maintenance optimization has attracted the attention of many researchers and practitioners from various sectors of the wind energy industry, including manufacturers, component suppliers, maintenance contractors and others. In this paper, we propose a conceptual classification framework for the available literature on maintenance policy optimization and inspection planning of wind energy systems and structures (turbines, foundations, power cables and electrical substations). The developed framework addresses a wide range of theoretical and practical issues, including the models, methods, and the strategies employed to optimise maintenance decisions and inspection procedures in wind farms. The literature published to date on the subject of this article is critically reviewed and several research gaps are identified. Moreover, the available studies are systematically classified using different criteria and some research directions of potential interest to operational researchers are highlighted