261,379 research outputs found
Either, Or. Exploration of an Emerging Decision Theory.
A novel decision theory is emerging out of sparse findings in economics, mathematics and, most importantly, psychology and computational cognitive science. It rejects a fundamental assumption of the theory of rational decision-making, namely, that uncertain belief rests on independent assessment of utility and probability, and includes envisioning possibilities within its scope. Several researchers working with these premises, independently of one another, arrived at the conclusion that decision is made by highlighting the positive features of the alternative that will be chosen while opposing it to a loosing alternative, whose unpleasant aspects have been stressed. This article frames together contributions from different disciplines, often unknown to one another, with the hope of improving the coordination of research efforts. Furthermore, it discusses the status of the novel theory with respect to our current idea of rationality.Rationality; Shackle; Shafer; Search for Dominant Structure; Differentiation -- Consolidation; Constraint Satisfaction Networks; Construction of Narratives
How Can Social Networks Ever Become Complex? Modelling the Emergence of Complex Networks from Local Social Exchanges
Small-world and power-law network structures have been prominently proposed as models of large networks. However, the assumptions of these models usually lack sociological grounding. We present a computational model grounded in social exchange theory. Agents search attractive exchange partners in a diverse population. Agent use simple decision heuristics, based on imperfect, local information. Computer simulations show that the topological structure of the emergent social network depends heavily upon two sets of conditions, harshness of the exchange game and learning capacities of the agents. Further analysis show that a combination of these conditions affects whether star-like, small-world or power-law structures emerge.Complex Networks, Power-Law, Scale-Free, Small-World, Agent-Based Modeling, Social Exchange Theory, Structural Emergence
Distributed Computing with Adaptive Heuristics
We use ideas from distributed computing to study dynamic environments in
which computational nodes, or decision makers, follow adaptive heuristics (Hart
2005), i.e., simple and unsophisticated rules of behavior, e.g., repeatedly
"best replying" to others' actions, and minimizing "regret", that have been
extensively studied in game theory and economics. We explore when convergence
of such simple dynamics to an equilibrium is guaranteed in asynchronous
computational environments, where nodes can act at any time. Our research
agenda, distributed computing with adaptive heuristics, lies on the borderline
of computer science (including distributed computing and learning) and game
theory (including game dynamics and adaptive heuristics). We exhibit a general
non-termination result for a broad class of heuristics with bounded
recall---that is, simple rules of behavior that depend only on recent history
of interaction between nodes. We consider implications of our result across a
wide variety of interesting and timely applications: game theory, circuit
design, social networks, routing and congestion control. We also study the
computational and communication complexity of asynchronous dynamics and present
some basic observations regarding the effects of asynchrony on no-regret
dynamics. We believe that our work opens a new avenue for research in both
distributed computing and game theory.Comment: 36 pages, four figures. Expands both technical results and discussion
of v1. Revised version will appear in the proceedings of Innovations in
Computer Science 201
Collective stability of networks of winner-take-all circuits
The neocortex has a remarkably uniform neuronal organization, suggesting that
common principles of processing are employed throughout its extent. In
particular, the patterns of connectivity observed in the superficial layers of
the visual cortex are consistent with the recurrent excitation and inhibitory
feedback required for cooperative-competitive circuits such as the soft
winner-take-all (WTA). WTA circuits offer interesting computational properties
such as selective amplification, signal restoration, and decision making. But,
these properties depend on the signal gain derived from positive feedback, and
so there is a critical trade-off between providing feedback strong enough to
support the sophisticated computations, while maintaining overall circuit
stability. We consider the question of how to reason about stability in very
large distributed networks of such circuits. We approach this problem by
approximating the regular cortical architecture as many interconnected
cooperative-competitive modules. We demonstrate that by properly understanding
the behavior of this small computational module, one can reason over the
stability and convergence of very large networks composed of these modules. We
obtain parameter ranges in which the WTA circuit operates in a high-gain
regime, is stable, and can be aggregated arbitrarily to form large stable
networks. We use nonlinear Contraction Theory to establish conditions for
stability in the fully nonlinear case, and verify these solutions using
numerical simulations. The derived bounds allow modes of operation in which the
WTA network is multi-stable and exhibits state-dependent persistent activities.
Our approach is sufficiently general to reason systematically about the
stability of any network, biological or technological, composed of networks of
small modules that express competition through shared inhibition.Comment: 7 Figure
Open-Source software in OR education
24th European Conference on Operational Research (EURO XXIV). Lisboa, 11 a 14 de Julho de 2010 (Comunicação).This contribution will focus on Computational Tools of Open-Source Software in OR Education. Some educational experiences in the area of Forecasting; Simulation; Graphs and Networks; Decision Theory and Linear Programming based on: R 2.10.0, Scilab 5.1.1 and an Open Source Spreadsheet will be illustrated, with a brief reference to the acceptance of pupils and colleagues
AI in marketing, consumer research and psychology: A systematic literature review and research agenda
This study is the first to provide an integrated view on the body of knowledge of artificial intelligence (AI) published in the marketing, consumer research, and psychology literature. By leveraging a systematic literature review using a data-driven approach and quantitative methodology (including bibliographic coupling), this study provides an overview of the emerging intellectual structure of AI research in the three bodies of literature examined. We identified eight topical clusters: (1) memory and computational logic; (2) decision making and cognitive processes; (3) neural networks; (4) machine learning and linguistic analysis; (5) social media and text mining; (6) social media content analytics; (7) technology acceptance and adoption; and (8) big data and robots. Furthermore, we identified a total of 412 theoretical lenses used in these studies with the most frequently used being: (1) the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology; (2) game theory; (3) theory of mind; (4) theory of planned behavior; (5) computational theories; (6) behavioral reasoning theory; (7) decision theories; and (8) evolutionary theory. Finally, we propose a research agenda to advance the scholarly debate on AI in the three literatures studied with an emphasis on cross-fertilization of theories used across fields, and neglected research topics
Computational Optimizations for Machine Learning
The present book contains the 10 articles finally accepted for publication in the Special Issue “Computational Optimizations for Machine Learning” of the MDPI journal Mathematics, which cover a wide range of topics connected to the theory and applications of machine learning, neural networks and artificial intelligence. These topics include, among others, various types of machine learning classes, such as supervised, unsupervised and reinforcement learning, deep neural networks, convolutional neural networks, GANs, decision trees, linear regression, SVM, K-means clustering, Q-learning, temporal difference, deep adversarial networks and more. It is hoped that the book will be interesting and useful to those developing mathematical algorithms and applications in the domain of artificial intelligence and machine learning as well as for those having the appropriate mathematical background and willing to become familiar with recent advances of machine learning computational optimization mathematics, which has nowadays permeated into almost all sectors of human life and activity
Hybrid Algorithm based on Genetic Algorithm and Tabu Search for Reconfiguration Problem in Smart Grid Networks Using "R"
Reconfiguration of distribution networks aims to support the decision support, planning and/or real-time control of the operation of the electricity network. It is accomplished modifying the network structure of distribution feeders by changing the sectionalizing switches. Ensure higher levels of continuity and reliability to the electricity supply service are some of the requirements of consumers and electric power providers in the Smart Grid (SG) context. The goal of this paper is to propose a hybrid algorithm (Genetic and Tabu) for the reconfiguration problem based on " R " in order to better support the decision making process. Beyond that, " R " modeling of electricity networks improves the response time when handling issues of network reconfiguration using graph theory. The status of switches is decided according to graph theory subject to the radiality constraint of the distribution networks. The algorithm is presented and simulation results of IEEE 16-bus system, showing good results and computational efficiency
Optimisation of temporal networks under uncertainty
A wide variety of decision problems in operations research are defined on temporal networks,
that is, workflows of time-consuming tasks whose processing order is constrained by precedence
relations. For example, temporal networks are used to formalise the management of projects,
the execution of computer applications, the design of digital circuits and the scheduling of
production processes. Optimisation problems arise in temporal networks when a decision maker
wishes to determine a temporal arrangement of the tasks and/or a resource assignment that
optimises some network characteristic such as the network’s makespan (i.e., the time required
to complete all tasks) or its net present value.
Optimisation problems in temporal networks have been investigated intensively for more than
fifty years. To date, the majority of contributions focus on deterministic formulations where all
problem parameters are known. This is surprising since parameters such as the task durations,
the network structure, the availability of resources and the cash flows are typically unknown
at the time the decision problem arises. The tacit understanding in the literature is that the
decision maker replaces these uncertain parameters with their most likely or expected values
to obtain a deterministic optimisation problem. It is well-documented in theory and practise
that this approach can lead to severely suboptimal decisions.
The objective of this thesis is to investigate solution techniques for optimisation problems in
temporal networks that explicitly account for parameter uncertainty. Apart from theoretical
and computational challenges, a key difficulty is that the decision maker may not be aware
of the precise nature of the uncertainty. We therefore study several formulations, each of
which requires different information about the probability distribution of the uncertain problem
parameters. We discuss models that maximise the network’s net present value and problems
that minimise the network’s makespan. Throughout the thesis, emphasis is placed on tractable
techniques that scale to industrial-size problems
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