Efficient Identification of Equivalences in Dynamic Graphs and Pedigree Structures

We propose a new framework for designing test and query functions for complex structures that vary across a given parameter such as genetic marker position. The operations we are interested in include equality testing, set operations, isolating unique states, duplication counting, or finding equivalence classes under identifiability constraints. A motivating application is locating equivalence classes in identity-by-descent (IBD) graphs, graph structures in pedigree analysis that change over genetic marker location. The nodes of these graphs are unlabeled and identified only by their connecting edges, a constraint easily handled by our approach. The general framework introduced is powerful enough to build a range of testing functions for IBD graphs, dynamic populations, and other structures using a minimal set of operations. The theoretical and algorithmic properties of our approach are analyzed and proved. Computational results on several simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.Comment: Code for paper available at http://www.stat.washington.edu/~hoytak/code/hashreduc

Efficient treatment and quantification of uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis

The main goals of this thesis are the development of a computationally efficient framework for stochastic treatment of various important uncertainties in probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment, its application to a newly created seismic risk model of Indonesia, and the analysis and quantification of the impact of these uncertainties on the distribution of estimated seismic losses for a large number of synthetic portfolios modeled after real-world counterparts. The treatment and quantification of uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis has already been identified as an area that could benefit from increased research attention. Furthermore, it has become evident that the lack of research considering the development and application of suitable sampling schemes to increase the computational efficiency of the stochastic simulation represents a bottleneck for applications where model runtime is an important factor. In this research study, the development and state of the art of probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis is first reviewed and opportunities for improved treatment of uncertainties are identified. A newly developed framework for the stochastic treatment of portfolio location uncertainty as well as ground motion and damage uncertainty is presented. The framework is then optimized with respect to computational efficiency. Amongst other techniques, a novel variance reduction scheme for portfolio location uncertainty is developed. Furthermore, in this thesis, some well-known variance reduction schemes such as Quasi Monte Carlo, Latin Hypercube Sampling and MISER (locally adaptive recursive stratified sampling) are applied for the first time to seismic hazard and risk assessment. The effectiveness and applicability of all used schemes is analyzed. Several chapters of this monograph describe the theory, implementation and some exemplary applications of the framework. To conduct these exemplary applications, a seismic hazard model for Indonesia was developed and used for the analysis and quantification of loss uncertainty for a large collection of synthetic portfolios. As part of this work, the new framework was integrated into a probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment software suite developed and used by Munich Reinsurance Group. Furthermore, those parts of the framework that deal with location and damage uncertainties are also used by the flood and storm natural catastrophe model development groups at Munich Reinsurance for their risk models

Efficient treatment and quantification of uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis

The main goals of this thesis are the development of a computationally efficient framework for stochastic treatment of various important uncertainties in probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment, its application to a newly created seismic risk model of Indonesia, and the analysis and quantification of the impact of these uncertainties on the distribution of estimated seismic losses for a large number of synthetic portfolios modeled after real-world counterparts. The treatment and quantification of uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis has already been identified as an area that could benefit from increased research attention. Furthermore, it has become evident that the lack of research considering the development and application of suitable sampling schemes to increase the computational efficiency of the stochastic simulation represents a bottleneck for applications where model runtime is an important factor. In this research study, the development and state of the art of probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis is first reviewed and opportunities for improved treatment of uncertainties are identified. A newly developed framework for the stochastic treatment of portfolio location uncertainty as well as ground motion and damage uncertainty is presented. The framework is then optimized with respect to computational efficiency. Amongst other techniques, a novel variance reduction scheme for portfolio location uncertainty is developed. Furthermore, in this thesis, some well-known variance reduction schemes such as Quasi Monte Carlo, Latin Hypercube Sampling and MISER (locally adaptive recursive stratified sampling) are applied for the first time to seismic hazard and risk assessment. The effectiveness and applicability of all used schemes is analyzed. Several chapters of this monograph describe the theory, implementation and some exemplary applications of the framework. To conduct these exemplary applications, a seismic hazard model for Indonesia was developed and used for the analysis and quantification of loss uncertainty for a large collection of synthetic portfolios. As part of this work, the new framework was integrated into a probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment software suite developed and used by Munich Reinsurance Group. Furthermore, those parts of the framework that deal with location and damage uncertainties are also used by the flood and storm natural catastrophe model development groups at Munich Reinsurance for their risk models

Searching for continuous gravitational wave sources in binary systems

We consider the problem of searching for continuous gravitational wave sources orbiting a companion object. This issue is of particular interest because the LMXB's, and among them Sco X-1, might be marginally detectable with 2 years coherent observation time by the Earth-based laser interferometers expected to come on line by 2002, and clearly observable by the second generation of detectors. Moreover, several radio pulsars, which could be deemed to be CW sources, are found to orbit a companion star or planet, and the LIGO/VIRGO/GEO network plans to continuously monitor such systems. We estimate the computational costs for a search launched over the additional five parameters describing generic elliptical orbits using match filtering techniques. These techniques provide the optimal signal-to-noise ratio and also a very clear and transparent theoretical framework. We provide ready-to-use analytical expressions for the number of templates required to carry out the searches in the astrophysically relevant regions of the parameter space, and how the computational cost scales with the ranges of the parameters. We also determine the critical accuracy to which a particular parameter must be known, so that no search is needed for it. In order to disentangle the computational burden involved in the orbital motion of the CW source, from the other source parameters (position in the sky and spin-down), and reduce the complexity of the analysis, we assume that the source is monochromatic and its location in the sky is exactly known. The orbital elements, on the other hand, are either assumed to be completely unknown or only partly known. We apply our theoretical analysis to Sco X-1 and the neutron stars with binary companions which are listed in the radio pulsar catalogue.Comment: 31 pages, LaTeX, 6 eps figures, submitted to PR

Computational fluid dynamics challenges for hybrid air vehicle applications

This paper begins by comparing turbulence models for the prediction of hybrid air vehicle (HAV) flows. A 6 : 1 prolate spheroid is employed for validation of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method. An analysis of turbulent quantities is presented and the Shear Stress Transport (SST) k-ω model is compared against a k-ω Explicit Algebraic Stress model (EASM) within the unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) framework. Further comparisons involve Scale Adaptative Simulation models and a local transition transport model. The results show that the flow around the vehicle at low pitch angles is sensitive to transition effects. At high pitch angles, the vortices generated on the suction side provide substantial lift augmentation and are better resolved by EASMs. The validated CFD method is employed for the flow around a shape similar to the Airlander aircraft of Hybrid Air Vehicles Ltd. The sensitivity of the transition location to the Reynolds number is demonstrated and the role of each vehicle£s component is analyzed. It was found that the ¦ns contributed the most to increase the lift and drag

Sensor-Based Safety Performance Assessment of Individual Construction Workers

Over the last decade, researchers have explored various technologies and methodologies to enhance worker safety at construction sites. The use of advanced sensing technologies mainly has focused on detecting and warning about safety issues by directly relying on the detection capabilities of these technologies. Until now, very little research has explored methods to quantitatively assess individual workers’ safety performance. For this, this study uses a tracking system to collect and use individuals’ location data in the proposed safety framework. A computational and analytical procedure/model was developed to quantify the safety performance of individual workers beyond detection and warning. The framework defines parameters for zone-based safety risks and establishes a zone-based safety risk model to quantify potential risks to workers. To demonstrate the model of safety analysis, the study conducted field tests at different construction sites, using various interaction scenarios. Probabilistic evaluation showed a slight underestimation and overestimation in certain cases; however, the model represented the overall safety performance of a subject quite well. Test results showed clear evidence of the model’s ability to capture safety conditions of workers in pre-identified hazard zones. The developed approach presents a way to provide visualized and quantified information as a form of safety index, which has not been available in the industry. In addition, such an automated method may present a suitable safety monitoring method that can eliminate human deployment that is expensive, error-prone, and time-consuming

A computational efficient modelling of laminar separation bubbles

In predicting the aerodynamic characteristics of airfoils operating at low Reynolds numbers, it is often important to account for the effects of laminar (transitional) separation bubbles. Previous approaches to the modelling of this viscous phenomenon range from fast but sometimes unreliable empirical correlations for the length of the bubble and the associated increase in momentum thickness, to more accurate but significantly slower displacement-thickness iteration methods employing inverse boundary-layer formulations in the separated regions. Since the penalty in computational time associated with the more general methods is unacceptable for airfoil design applications, use of an accurate yet computationally efficient model is highly desirable. To this end, a semi-empirical bubble model was developed and incorporated into the Eppler and Somers airfoil design and analysis program. The generality and the efficiency was achieved by successfully approximating the local viscous/inviscid interaction, the transition location, and the turbulent reattachment process within the framework of an integral boundary-layer method. Comparisons of the predicted aerodynamic characteristics with experimental measurements for several airfoils show excellent and consistent agreement for Reynolds numbers from 2,000,000 down to 100,000