Rain and the democratic window of opportunity

According to the economic approach to political transitions, transitory negative economic shocks can open a window of opportunity for democratic improvement. Testing the theory requires a source of transitory shocks to the aggregate economy. We use rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries and find that negative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement in democratic institutions. Instrumental variables estimates indicate that following a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent, democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and the probability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentage points.Democratization, transitory economic shocks

Spatial aspects of the design and targeting of agricultural development strategies:

Two increasingly shared perspectives within the international development community are that (a) geography matters, and (b) many government interventions would be more successful if they were better targeted. This paper unites these two notions by exploring the opportunities for, and benefits of, bringing an explicitly spatial dimension to the tasks of formulating and evaluating agricultural development strategies. We first review the lingua franca of land fragility and find it lacking in its capacity to describe the dynamic interface between the biophysical and socioeconomic factors that help shape rural development options. Subsequently, we propose a two-phased approach. First, development strategy options are characterized to identify the desirable ranges of conditions that would most favor successful strategy implementation. Second, those conditions exhibiting important spatial dependency – such as agricultural potential, population density, and access to infrastructure and markets – are matched against a similarly characterized, spatially-referenced (GIS) database. This process generates both spatial (map) and tabular representations of strategy-specific development domains. An important benefit of a spatial (GIS) framework is that it provides a powerful means of organizing and integrating a very diverse range of disciplinary and data inputs. At a more conceptual level we propose that it is the characterization of location, not the narrowly-focused characterization of land, that is more properly the focus of attention from a development perspective. The paper includes appropriate examples of spatial analysis using data from East Africa and Burkina Faso, and concludes with an appendix describing and interpreting regional climate and soil data for Sub-Saharan Africa that was directly relevant to our original goal.Spatial analysis (Statistics), Agricultural development., Burkina Faso., Africa, Sub-Saharan.,

Road network upgrading and overland trade expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa

Recent research suggests that isolation from regional and international markets has contributed significantly to poverty in many Sub-Saharan African countries. Numerous empirical studies identify poor transport infrastructure and border restrictions as significant deterrents to trade expansion. In response, the African Development Bank has proposed an integrated network of functional roads for the subcontinent. Drawing on new econometric results, the authors quantify the trade-expansion potential and costs of such a network. They use spatial network analysis techniques to identify a network of primary roads connecting allSub-Saharan capitals and other cities with populations over 500,000. The authors estimate current overland trade flows in the network using econometrically-estimated gravity model parameters, road transport quality indicators, actual road distances, and estimates of economic scale for cities in the network. Then they simulate the effect of feasible continental upgrading by setting network transport quality at a level that is functional, but less highly developed than existing roads in countries like South Africa and Botswana. The authors assess the costs of upgrading with econometric evidence from a large World Bank database of road project costs in Africa. Using a standard approach to forecast error estimation, they derive a range of potential benefits and costs. Their baseline results indicate that continental network upgrading would expand overland trade by about $250 billion over 15 years, with major direct and indirect benefits for the rural poor. Financing the program would require about$20 billion for initial upgrading and $1 billion annually for maintenance. The authors conclude with a discussion of supporting institutional arrangements and the potential cost of implementing them.Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Common Carriers Industry,Rural Roads&Transport,Transport and Trade Logistics,Economic Theory&Research

Price Distortions and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

To what extent has Sub-Saharan Africa's slow economic growth over the past five decades been due to price and trade policies that have discouraged production of agricultural relative to non-agricultural tradables? This paper uses a new set of estimates of policy distortions to relative prices to address this question econometrically. We first test if these policy distortions respond to economic growth, using rainfall and international commodity price shocks as instrumental variables. We find that on impact there is no significant response of relative price distortions to changes in real GDP per capita. We then test the reverse proposition and find a statistically significant and sizable negative effect of relative price distortions on the growth rate of Sub-Saharan African countries. Our fixed effects estimates suggest that, during 1960-2005, a one standard deviation increase in distortions to relative prices reduced the region's real GDP per capita growth rate by about half a percentage point per annum.Economic growth, Trade restrictions, Agricultural incentives

Rainfall, Financial Development, and Remittances: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

We use annual variations in rainfall to examine the effects that exogenous, transitory income shocks have on remittances in a panel of 41 Sub-Saharan African countries during the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that on average rainfall shocks have an insignificant contemporaneous effect on remittances. However, the marginal effect is significantly decreasing in the share of domestic credit to GDP. So much so, that at high levels of credit to GDP rainfall shocks have a significant negative effect on remittances, while at low levels of credit to GDP the effect of rainfall on remittances is significantly positive.Transitory Income Shocks, Remittances, Financial Development

The Impact of Weather Anomalies on Migration in sub-Saharan Africa

This paper analyzes the effects of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa. Theoretically, we show how weather anomalies induce rural-urban migration that subsequently triggers international migration. We distinguish two transmission channels, an amenity and an economic geography channel. Empirically, based on annual, cross-country panel data for sub-Saharan Africa, our results suggest that weather anomalies increased internal and international migration through both channels. We estimate that temperature and rainfall anomalies caused a total displacement of 5 million people in net terms during the period 1960-2000, i.e. a minimum of 130’000 people every year. Further weather anomalies, based on IPCC projections on climate change, could lead to an additional annual displacement of 11 million people by the end of the 21st century.International migration, urbanization, rural-urban migration, weather anomalies, sub-Saharan Africa.

The Economics of Desertification, Land Degradation, and Drought; Toward an Integrated Global Assessment

Land degradation has not been comprehensively addressed at the global level or in developing countries. A suitable economic framework that could guide investments and institutional action is lacking. This study aims to overcome this deficiency and to provide a framework for a global assessment based on a consideration of the costs of action versus inaction regarding desertification, land degradation, and drought (DLDD). Most of the studies on the costs of land degradation (mainly limited to soil erosion) give cost estimates of less than 1 percent up to about 10 percent of the agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) for various countries worldwide. But the indirect costs of DLDD on the economy (national income), as well as their socioeconomic consequences (particularly poverty impacts), must be accounted for, too. Despite the numerous challenges, a global assessment of the costs of action and inaction against DLDD is possible, urgent, and necessary. This study provides a framework for such a global assessment and provides insights from some related country studies.Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Income, health, and well-being in rural Malawi

This paper attempts to isolate the causal link of income on health status and subjective well-being for the rural population in Malawi using three waves of household panel data spanning the period 2004-2008 from the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project (MDICP) and the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH). Malawi is a low-income country with high background morbidity and mortality, as well as an AIDS epidemic, high fertility, and poor reproductive health. Instrumental variables and fixed effects strategies are used to try to address endogeneity of the income to health relationship. The analyses show that a 10% increase in income improves mean general health status of rural Malawians by 1.0% and mean subjective well-being by 1.2%.AIDS/HIV, income, Malawi, self-reported health, subjective well-being

Impact of soil conservation on crop production in the Northern Ethiopian Highlands:

"Land degradation, in the form of soil erosion and nutrient depletion, threatens food security and the sustainability of agricultural production in many developing countries. Governments and development agencies have invested substantial resources in promoting soil conservation practices, in an effort to improve environmental conditions and reduce poverty. However, very limited rigorous empirical work has examined the economics of adopting soil conservation technology. This paper investigates the impact of stone bunds on crop production value per hectare in low and high rainfall areas of the Ethiopian highlands using cross-sectional data from more than 900 households having multiple plots per household. We use modified random effects models, stochastic dominance analysis (SDA) and matching methods to ensure robustness. The parametric regression and SDA estimates are based on matched observations obtained from nearest neighbor matching using propensity score estimates. This is important because conventional regression and SDA estimates are obtained without ensuring the existence of comparable conserved and non-conserved plots within the distribution of covariates. Here, we use matching methods, random effects and Mundlak's approach to control for selection and endogeneity biases that may arise due to correlation of unobserved heterogeneity and observed explanatory variables. The three methods used herein consistently show that plots with stone bunds are more productive than those without such technologies in semi-arid areas but not in higher rainfall areas, apparently because the moisture-conserving benefits of this technology are more beneficial in drier areas. This implies that the performance of stone bunds varies by agro-ecological type, suggesting a need for the design and implementation of appropriate site-specific technologies." from Authors' AbstractSoil conservation, Crop production, Agro-ecology, Matching method, Stochastic dominance, Modified random effects model, Land management,