Finding the optimal combination of power plants alternatives: a multi response Taguchi-neural network using TOPSIS and fuzzy best-worst method

With increasing growth of electricity consumption in developed and developing countries, the necessity of constructing and developing of power plants is inevitable. There are two main resources for electricity generation includes fossil and renewable energies which have some different characteristics such as manufacturing technology, environmental issues, accessibility and etc. In developing plans, it is important to consider and address the policy makers’ indicators such as environmental, social, economic and technical criteria. In this paper, an integrated multi response Taguchi-neural network-fuzzy best-worst method (FBWM) -TOPSIS approach is applied to find an optimal level of five different power plants including: gas, steam, combined cycle, wind and hydroelectric. Taguchi method is used to design combinations and calculate some of the signal to noise (S/N) ratios. Then, neural network is applied to estimate the rest of S/N ratios. Finally, FBWM and TOPSIS methods are used for weighing sub-indicators and selecting the best combination, respectively. To illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach, a case study on the development of power plants in Iran is considered and the results are discussed. According to the results, in general, small size power plants for fossil resources are preferable. In contrast, medium and larger size power plants for renewable resources are preferable

Comparative analysis on decision making in the case of nuclear power plant development in the Republic of Kazakhstan

학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 공과대학 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공, 2019. 2. Heo, Eunnyeong.카자흐스탄은 우라늄 최대생산국이자 수출국이면서 동시에 구 소련연방국가이기에 원자력산업의 개발에 대한 관심이 크다. 풍부한 우라늄 매장량은 특히 카자흐스탄 정부가 원자력발전에 대한 정책을 지속적으로 논의하여온 대표적인 이유이다. 그러나 원자력발전이 실제로 카자흐스탄에서 개시되기 위해는 많은 제약과 한계를 넘어야 한다. 본 논문은 이러한 배경을 바탕으로 하여, 카자흐스탄에서 원자력 발전을 시작하기 위한 전제조건들이 무엇인지 찾고 또한 찾은 조건들의 중요도를 비교 분석하였다. 분석방법론으로는 복잡한 의사결정구조를 평가하는 분석에 활발히 사용되고 있는 Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)를 사용하였다. 본 연구에서는 먼저 관련 문헌을 분석하여 전제조건들을 나열하고, 이들을 전문가설문을 통하여 4개의 중분류 조건과 12개의 세부조건으로 정리하였다. 다음으로, 카자흐스탄 정부 중 실무를 담당하는 에너지부와 재정을 담당하는 투자개발부 소속 공무원들을 대상으로 하여 4개 중분류 조건 및 12개 세부조건들을 대상으로 AHP 분석을 실시하여 이들간의 중요도를 비교 분석하였다. 분석결과, 투자개발부 공무원들은 4개 중분류 중 경제성이 가증 중요도가 높다고 판단한 반면, 에너지부 공무원들은 환경성이 가장 중요하다고 판단하고 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 두 부처 공무원들 모두 사회정치적 조건들은 중요하지 않다고 판단하였다. 세부 기준 중에는 건설비용과 회수기간 등이 투자개발부 공무원들이 가장 중요하게 생각한 조건인 반면 에너지부 공무원들은 소음과 주민수용성을 들었다. 한편 연구개발이나 효율성 등은 중요도가 낮게 나와 카자흐스탄 정부의 원자력에 대한 태도를 확인할 수 있었다. 주요어 : Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), 카자흐스탄, 원자력발전, 정부정책. 학 번 : 2017-29469Despite that almost all former USSR republics refused Soviet nuclear weapons, only Kazakhstan could reap the maximum of reputational benefits from this and make the nuclear-free status a part of its international reputation. Being among largest producers and exporters of uranium in the world, Kazakhstan is directly interested in the development of the nuclear industry. The abundance of uranium resources and the provision of continuous supplies of low-enriched uranium provides an additional incentive for the development of domestic nuclear programs. As a result, the issue of necessity of a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan is occasionally discussed in the government. In this regard, there are many questions that have to be answered before the construction of the nuclear power plant could begin. This research tries to investigate and rank the assessment criteria and factors that should be taken into account for the construction of a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan. The methodology of this study consists of two steps: First, a detailed literature review is conducted in order to identify the assessment criteria and sub-criteria for government officials in decision making. The second step covers obtaining opinions from the experts in energy-related area. The collected information is analyzed using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). With the help of the AHP, the weight of each criterion and sub-criterion is calculated. The results show that among all four criteria, the Economic criterion is the most crucial for decision makers from the Ministry for Investments and Development. On the other hand, the Environmental criterion is the most important among decision makers from the Ministry of Energy. The Environmental criterion was assessed by the Ministry for Investments and Development as the least important factor in the construction of a nuclear power plant. Interestingly, both decision making groups did not assess the Socio-Political criterion as an important barrier. Moreover, government officials from the Ministry for Investment and Development believe that Construction cost and Payback period are the most important barriers in the development of a nuclear power plant, however, Social Acceptance and Noise play only an insignificant role in the decision making. In the case of the Ministry of Energy, criteria such as Impact on environment and Land use are the most significant, while Efficiency and R&D were assessed with a low importance. Key words: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Republic of Kazakhstan, Criteria, Decision making, Nuclear energy, Nuclear power plant. Student number: 2017-29469Abstract iii Contents v List of Tables vii List of Figures viii Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Overall introduction 1 1.2 Development of energy sector in Kazakhstan 3 1.3 Energy sector in the Republic of Kazakhstan 9 1.4 Purpose of study 16 1.5 Research motivation 21 1.6 Research questions and thesis structure 23 Chapter 2. Literature review and methodology for comparative analysis 25 2.1 Literature review 25 2.2 The Analytic Hierarchy Process 31 2.3 Why the Analytic Hierarchy Process? 34 2.4 Main steps of the AHP 37 2.4.1 Representing the initial problem in the form of a hierarchical structure 37 2.4.2 Pairwise comparison of individual hierarchy component 38 2.4.3 Obtaining normalized matrix 40 2.4.4 Consistency index and consistency ratio 41 Chapter 3. Model and Data 43 3.1 Previous studies 43 3.2 Basic concept of barriers related to the construction of nuclear power plants 50 3.3 Description of criteria 52 3.3.1 Socio-Political criterion 52 3.3.2 Technical criterion 53 3.3.3 Economic criterion 54 3.3.4 Environmental criterion 55 3.4 Consistency test 58 Chapter 4. Results of AHP 65 4.1 Weights of main criteria 65 4.2 Weights of sub criteria within Socio-Political criterion 68 4.3 Weights of sub criteria within Technical criterion 71 4.4 Weights of sub criteria within Economic criterion 73 4.5 Weights of sub criteria within Environmental criterion 75 4.6 Results of Global Priorities 77 4.7 Comparative analysis 81 4.7.1 Ministry for Investments and Development 81 4.7.2 Ministry of Energy 83 4.7.3 Weight of each barrier and analysis of differences between two decision making groups ………..85 Chapter 5. Conclusion 87 5.1 Overall conclusion 88 5.2 Limitations of Study 90 Bibliography 91 Appendix 1: Questionaire 103 Abstract (Korean) 113 Aknowledgement 115Maste

Location Selection of Logistics Center: A Case Study of Greater Mekong Subregion Economic Corridors in Northeastern Thailand

The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) Economic Corridors have recently become an essential key component of trade in Southeast Asia. As one of the member countries in regional cooperation, Thailand can use these corridors as a tool to boost the nation’s economy with respect to cross-border trade. As a large volume of freight is regularly transported and stored, logistics centers are heavily involved in these activities. In this study, an integrated methodology using both AHP and TOPSIS was proposed and utilized for the selection of a suitable location. The Northeastern zone of Thailand was chosen as a case study for the site of a logistics center as two major corridors of the GMS pass through this area. Initially, there were eight alternative Northeastern provinces considered with regard to ten determining criteria. Subsequently, AHP was employed to construct weightings for each of the criteria, and TOPSIS was utilized to rank the provinces from the most to least appropriate alternatives for the location of the logistics center. The outcomes show that Nakhon Ratchasima is the best location within Northeastern Thailand

Mapping concentrated solar power site suitability in Algeria

The investment in solar thermal power technologies has become increasingly attractive, despite their still perceived high costs. Algeria presented an ambitious plan for increasing the participation of renewable energy sources (RES) in the power system, with significant investments foreseen for solar power technologies. To achieve this objective, it is necessary to identify optimal sites for the implementation of these plants, as well as others where implementation is highly inadvisable from the economic, social, or environmental points of view. The main goal of this study is to present and apply a methodology to identify adequate locations for the installation of solar power plants in Algeria. The study addressed the particular case of concentrated solar power (CSP) and proposed a hybrid approach combining multi criteria decision making and Geographic Information System. The approach allowed mapping and visualizing unfeasible areas and ranking the feasible sites. The results showed that more than 51% of the territory of the country is unfeasible for the implementation of CSP, mainly due to criteria related to topographic aspects, water availability, and distance to the grid. The results demonstrated that relying only on Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) values may result in a reductionist vision for energy planning and thus other criteria can play a fundamental role in the decision process. The model allowed also to identify the best regions for CSP investment and opens routes for more detailed studies for the exact site selection.The authors would like to thank all open source data providers and ESRI Maps for provide the background maps. Also authors thank J. R. Oakleaf et al. for make available spatial data linked to global potential for renewable energy. The authors are also thankful to experts of the research center CDER and the engineering experts who participated in the AHP for their assistance

Designing a Solar Photovoltaic System for Generating Renewable Energy of a Hospital: Performance Analysis and Adjustment Based on RSM and ANFIS Approaches

One of the most favorable renewable energy sources, solar photovoltaic (PV) can meet the electricity demand considerably. Sunlight is converted into electricity by the solar PV systems using cells containing semiconductor materials. A PV system is designed to meet the energy needs of King Abdulaziz University Hospital. A new method has been introduced to find optimal working capacity, and determine the self‐consumption and sufficiency rates of the PV system. Response surface methodology (RSM) is used for determining the optimal working conditions of PV panels. Similarly, an adaptive neural network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was employed to analyze the performance of solar PV panels. The outcomes of methods were compared to the actual outcomes available for testing the performance of models. Hence, for a 40 MW target PV system capacity, the RSM determined that approximately 33.96 MW electricity can be produced, when the radiation rate is 896.3 W/m2, the module surface temperature is 41.4 °C, the outdoor temperature is 36.2 °C, the wind direction and speed are 305.6 and 6.7 m/s, respectively. The ANFIS model (with nine rules) gave the highest performance with lowest residual for the same design parameters. Hence, it was determined that the hourly electrical energy requirement of the hospital can be met by the PV system during the year.Deanship of Scientific Research (DSR), King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, under grant No. (D1441‐135‐626

GIS-Based Site Suitability Analysis for Wind and Solar Photovoltaics Energy Plants in Central North Region, Namibia

Increasing urbanisation and population growth are making it difficult for governments to achieve sustainable development. Provision of clean energy is among the seventeen sustainable development goals, as it reduces reliance on fossil fuels. In recent years, Namibia has rapidly increased her reliance on sustainable energy. The renewable energy sources (RESs), including wind and solar energy, can be described as clean sources which have lesser negative environmental impact compared to conventional energy sources. Amongst the pressing challenges today is finding solutions on efficient solar and wind energy production. It is imperative to work out the optimum location of RESs before installing them. This can significantly improve performance and establishes the foundation for studying both solar and wind power in a site selection problem. This study aims to determine potential locations for wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) energy plants installation using one of the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and a geographic information system (GIS) within the Central North Regional Electricity Distributor (CENORED) supply area. Combining GIS with MCDM results in a powerful technique for selecting potential sites, since GIS provides effective analysis, manipulation, and visualization of geospatial data, whereas MCDM provides consistent weighing of criteria. In the evaluations of the location: topographical, environmental, climatic and regulations constraints were considered as factors that may facilitate or hinder the deployment of solarwind energy power plants. For solar PV energy plant, the highest potential areas are in the north-west, south-west and study area's southern regions, whereas for the wind power plant, only the northwest part is a highly suitable location for wind energy plants installation. These findings can be used to determine most favourable location of interest for solar PV and wind power plant development or to support the integration of electrical grid expansion and off-grid electrification strategies