An empirical study on the various stock market prediction methods

Investment in the stock market is one of the much-admired investment actions. However, prediction of the stock market has remained a hard task because of the non-linearity exhibited. The non-linearity is due to multiple affecting factors such as global economy, political situations, sector performance, economic numbers, foreign institution investment, domestic institution investment, and so on. A proper set of such representative factors must be analyzed to make an efficient prediction model. Marginal improvement of prediction accuracy can be gainful for investors. This review provides a detailed analysis of research papers presenting stock market prediction techniques. These techniques are assessed in the time series analysis and sentiment analysis section. A detailed discussion on research gaps and issues is presented. The reviewed articles are analyzed based on the use of prediction techniques, optimization algorithms, feature selection methods, datasets, toolset, evaluation matrices, and input parameters. The techniques are further investigated to analyze relations of prediction methods with feature selection algorithm, datasets, feature selection methods, and input parameters. In addition, major problems raised in the present techniques are also discussed. This survey will provide researchers with deeper insight into various aspects of current stock market prediction methods

Machine Learning Predicts Drug Metabolism and Bioaccumulation by Intestinal Microbiota

Over 150 drugs are currently recognised as being susceptible to metabolism or bioaccumulation (together described as depletion) by gastrointestinal microorganisms; however, the true number is likely higher. Microbial drug depletion is often variable between and within individuals, depending on their unique composition of gut microbiota. Such variability can lead to significant differences in pharmacokinetics, which may be associated with dosing difficulties and lack of medication response. In this study, literature mining and unsupervised learning were used to curate a dataset of 455 drug–microbiota interactions. From this, 11 supervised learning models were developed that could predict drugs’ susceptibility to depletion by gut microbiota. The best model, a tuned extremely randomised trees classifier, achieved performance metrics of AUROC: 75.1% ± 6.8; weighted recall: 79.2% ± 3.9; balanced accuracy: 69.0% ± 4.6; and weighted precision: 80.2% ± 3.7 when validated on 91 drugs. This machine learning model is the first of its kind and provides a rapid, reliable, and resource-friendly tool for researchers and industry professionals to screen drugs for susceptibility to depletion by gut microbiota. The recognition of drug–microbiome interactions can support successful drug development and promote better formulations and dosage regimens for patients

Convolution on neural networks for high-frequency trend prediction of cryptocurrency exchange rates using technical indicators

This study explores the suitability of neural networks with a convolutional component as an alternative to traditional multilayer perceptrons in the domain of trend classification of cryptocurrency exchange rates using technical analysis in high frequencies. The experimental work compares the performance of four different network architectures -convolutional neural network, hybrid CNN-LSTM network, multilayer perceptron and radial basis function neural network- to predict whether six popular cryptocurrencies -Bitcoin, Dash, Ether, Litecoin, Monero and Ripple- will increase their value vs. USD in the next minute. The results, based on 18 technical indicators derived from the exchange rates at a one-minute resolution over one year, suggest that all series were predictable to a certain extent using the technical indicators. Convolutional LSTM neural networks outperformed all the rest significantly, while CNN neural networks were also able to provide good results specially in the Bitcoin, Ether and Litecoin cryptocurrencies.We would also like to acknowledge the financial support of the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities under grant PGC2018-096849-B-I00 (MCFin

Representation learning in finance

Finance studies often employ heterogeneous datasets from different sources with different structures and frequencies. Some data are noisy, sparse, and unbalanced with missing values; some are unstructured, containing text or networks. Traditional techniques often struggle to combine and effectively extract information from these datasets. This work explores representation learning as a proven machine learning technique in learning informative embedding from complex, noisy, and dynamic financial data. This dissertation proposes novel factorization algorithms and network modeling techniques to learn the local and global representation of data in two specific financial applications: analysts’ earnings forecasts and asset pricing. Financial analysts’ earnings forecast is one of the most critical inputs for security valuation and investment decisions. However, it is challenging to fully utilize this type of data due to the missing values. This work proposes one matrix-based algorithm, “Coupled Matrix Factorization,” and one tensor-based algorithm, “Nonlinear Tensor Coupling and Completion Framework,” to impute missing values in analysts’ earnings forecasts and then use the imputed data to predict firms’ future earnings. Experimental analysis shows that missing value imputation and representation learning by coupled matrix/tensor factorization from the observed entries improve the accuracy of firm earnings prediction. The results confirm that representing financial time-series in their natural third-order tensor form improves the latent representation of the data. It learns high-quality embedding by overcoming information loss of flattening data in spatial or temporal dimensions. Traditional asset pricing models focus on linear relationships among asset pricing factors and often ignore nonlinear interaction among firms and factors. This dissertation formulates novel methods to identify nonlinear asset pricing factors and develops asset pricing models that capture global and local properties of data. First, this work proposes an artificial neural network “auto enco der” based model to capture the latent asset pricing factors from the global representation of an equity index. It also shows that autoencoder effectively identifies communal and non-communal assets in an index to facilitate portfolio optimization. Second, the global representation is augmented by propagating information from local communities, where the network determines the strength of this information propagation. Based on the Laplacian spectrum of the equity market network, a network factor “Z-score” is proposed to facilitate pertinent information propagation and capture dynamic changes in network structures. Finally, a “Dynamic Graph Learning Framework for Asset Pricing” is proposed to combine both global and local representations of data into one end-to-end asset pricing model. Using graph attention mechanism and information diffusion function, the proposed model learns new connections for implicit networks and refines connections of explicit networks. Experimental analysis shows that the proposed model incorporates information from negative and positive connections, captures the network evolution of the equity market over time, and outperforms other state-of-the-art asset pricing and predictive machine learning models in stock return prediction. In a broader context, this is a pioneering work in FinTech, particularly in understanding complex financial market structures and developing explainable artificial intelligence models for finance applications. This work effectively demonstrates the application of machine learning to model financial networks, capture nonlinear interactions on data, and provide investors with powerful data-driven techniques for informed decision-making