Evolving game theory based decision making systems for NETA power market modelling, analysis and trading strategy development

In this thesis, current work carried out on analyzing the strategic behaviours in electricity trading is first reviewed. An intelligent decision-making and support technique, game theory, is often used in the market practice. Game theory is a discipline concerned with how individuals make decisions when they are partly aware of how their action might affect each other and when each individual might take this into account. Deficiencies and limitations of traditional game theory based methods developed for decision-making in electricity trading are also investigated. This research then explores to discover the impact of intelligent systems based trading strategies in the UK power markets. To model these behaviours and the New Electricity Trading Arrangements (NETA) system of the UK, traditional competitive and cooperative game theory strategies are taken into account in the work reported in this thesis. An improved methodology, “trigger price strategy”, is introduced to simulate power generation companies’ enhanced gaming strategies. Such modelling problem is, however, intractable and hence an extra-numerical search technique, Evolutionary Computation, is employed to solve the game theory based system modelling problem. An encoded Genetic Algorithm based technique is developed to search for an effective model for the complex decision-making process and to help decision-makers evaluate their strategies and bidding parameters. A novel and effective electricity trading simulation model is thus developed, where its design features are close to the NETA. The model scale is as close as possible to NETA. A complex and more realistic two-sided transaction mechanism with demand fully incorporated is incorporated in this model. These are a world first in this research area

Building and investigating generators' bidding strategies in an electricity market

In a deregulated electricity market environment, Generation Companies (GENCOs) compete with each other in the market through spot energy trading, bilateral contracts and other financial instruments. For a GENCO, risk management is among the most important tasks. At the same time, how to maximise its profit in the electricity market is the primary objective of its operations and strategic planning. Therefore, to achieve the best risk-return trade-off, a GENCO needs to determine how to allocate its assets. This problem is also called portfolio optimization. This dissertation presents advanced techniques for generator strategic bidding, portfolio optimization, risk assessment, and a framework for system adequacy optimisation and control in an electricity market environment. Most of the generator bidding related problems can be regarded as complex optimisation problems. In this dissertation, detailed discussions of optimisation methods are given and a number of approaches are proposed based on heuristic global optimisation algorithms for optimisation purposes. The increased level of uncertainty in an electricity market can result in higher risk for market participants, especially GENCOs, and contribute significantly to the drivers for appropriate bidding and risk management tasks for GENCOs in the market. Accordingly, how to build an optimal bidding strategy considering market uncertainty is a fundamental task for GENCOs. A framework of optimal bidding strategy is developed out of this research. To further enhance the effectiveness of the optimal bidding framework; a Support Vector Machine (SVM) based method is developed to handle the incomplete information of other generators in the market, and therefore form a reliable basis for a particular GENCO to build an optimal bidding strategy. A portfolio optimisation model is proposed to maximise the return and minimise the risk of a GENCO by optimally allocating the GENCO's assets among different markets, namely spot market and financial market. A new market pnce forecasting framework is given In this dissertation as an indispensable part of the overall research topic. It further enhances the bidding and portfolio selection methods by providing more reliable market price information and therefore concludes a rather comprehensive package for GENCO risk management in a market environment. A detailed risk assessment method is presented to further the price modelling work and cover the associated risk management practices in an electricity market. In addition to the issues stemmed from the individual GENCO, issues from an electricity market should also be considered in order to draw a whole picture of a GENCO's risk management. In summary, the contributions of this thesis include: 1) a framework of GENCO strategic bidding considering market uncertainty and incomplete information from rivals; 2) a portfolio optimisation model achieving best risk-return trade-off; 3) a FIA based MCP forecasting method; and 4) a risk assessment method and portfolio evaluation framework quantifying market risk exposure; through out the research, real market data and structure from the Australian NEM are used to validate the methods. This research has led to a number of publications in book chapters, journals and refereed conference proceedings

Equilibrium in Scoring Auctions

This paper studies multi-attribute auctions in which a buyer seeks to procure a complex good and evaluate offers using a quasi-linear scoring rule. Suppliers have private information about their costs, which is summarized by a multi-dimensional type. The scoring rule reduces the multidimensional bids submitted by each supplier to a single dimension, the score, which is used for deciding on the allocation and the resulting contractual obligation. We exploit this idea and obtain two kinds of results. First, we characterize the set of equilibria in quasi-linear scoring auctions with multi-dimensional types. In particular, we show that there exists a mapping between the class of equilibria in these scoring auctions and those in standard single object IPV auctions. Second, we prove a new expected utility equivalence theorem for quasi-linear scoring auctions.Auctions, Procurement

Optimal GENCO bidding strategy

Electricity industries worldwide are undergoing a period of profound upheaval. The conventional vertically integrated mechanism is being replaced by a competitive market environment. Generation companies have incentives to apply novel technologies to lower production costs, for example: Combined Cycle units. Economic dispatch with Combined Cycle units becomes a non-convex optimization problem, which is difficult if not impossible to solve by conventional methods. Several techniques are proposed here: Mixed Integer Linear Programming, a hybrid method, as well as Evolutionary Algorithms. Evolutionary Algorithms share a common mechanism, stochastic searching per generation. The stochastic property makes evolutionary algorithms robust and adaptive enough to solve a non-convex optimization problem. This research implements GA, EP, and PS algorithms for economic dispatch with Combined Cycle units, and makes a comparison with classical Mixed Integer Linear Programming.;The electricity market equilibrium model not only helps Independent System Operator/Regulator analyze market performance and market power, but also provides Market Participants the ability to build optimal bidding strategies based on Microeconomics analysis. Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is attractive compared to traditional models. This research identifies a proper SFE model, which can be applied to a multiple period situation. The equilibrium condition using discrete time optimal control is then developed for fuel resource constraints. Finally, the research discusses the issues of multiple equilibria and mixed strategies, which are caused by the transmission network. Additionally, an advantage of the proposed model for merchant transmission planning is discussed.;A market simulator is a valuable training and evaluation tool to assist sellers, buyers, and regulators to understand market performance and make better decisions. A traditional optimization model may not be enough to consider the distributed, large-scale, and complex energy market. This research compares the performance and searching paths of different artificial life techniques such as Genetic Algorithm (GA), Evolutionary Programming (EP), and Particle Swarm (PS), and look for a proper method to emulate Generation Companies\u27 (GENCOs) bidding strategies.;After deregulation, GENCOs face risk and uncertainty associated with the fast-changing market environment. A profit-based bidding decision support system is critical for GENCOs to keep a competitive position in the new environment. Most past research do not pay special attention to the piecewise staircase characteristic of generator offer curves. This research proposes an optimal bidding strategy based on Parametric Linear Programming. The proposed algorithm is able to handle actual piecewise staircase energy offer curves. The proposed method is then extended to incorporate incomplete information based on Decision Analysis. Finally, the author develops an optimal bidding tool (GenBidding) and applies it to the RTS96 test system

New actor types in electricity market simulation models: Deliverable D4.4

Project TradeRES - New Markets Design & Models for 100% Renewable Power Systems: https://traderes.eu/about/ABSTRACT: The modelling of agents in the simulation models and tools is of primary importance if the quality and the validity of the simulation outcomes are at stake. This is the first version of the report that deals with the representation of electricity market actors’ in the agent based models (ABMs) used in TradeRES project. With the AMIRIS, the EMLab-Generation (EMLab), the MASCEM and the RESTrade models being in the centre of the analysis, the subject matter of this report has been the identification of the actors’ characteristics that are already covered by the initial (with respect to the project) version of the models and the presentation of the foreseen modelling enhancements. For serving these goals, agent attributes and representation methods, as found in the literature of agent-driven models, are considered initially. The detailed review of such aspects offers the necessary background and supports the formation of a context that facilitates the mapping of actors’ characteristics to agent modelling approaches. Emphasis is given in several approaches and technics found in the literature for the development of a broader environment, on which part of the later analysis is deployed. Although the ABMs that are used in the project constitute an important part of the literature, they have not been included in the review since they are the subject of another section.N/

Agent-Based Computational Economics

Agent-based computational economics (ACE) is the computational study of economies modeled as evolving systems of autonomous interacting agents. Starting from initial conditions, specified by the modeler, the computational economy evolves over time as its constituent agents repeatedly interact with each other and learn from these interactions. ACE is therefore a bottom-up culture-dish approach to the study of economic systems. This study discusses the key characteristics and goals of the ACE methodology. Eight currently active research areas are highlighted for concrete illustration. Potential advantages and disadvantages of the ACE methodology are considered, along with open questions and possible directions for future research.Agent-based computational economics; Autonomous agents; Interaction networks; Learning; Evolution; Mechanism design; Computational economics; Object-oriented programming.

A theoretical and computational basis for CATNETS

The main content of this report is the identification and definition of market mechanisms for Application Layer Networks (ALNs). On basis of the structured Market Engineering process, the work comprises the identification of requirements which adequate market mechanisms for ALNs have to fulfill. Subsequently, two mechanisms for each, the centralized and the decentralized case are described in this document. These build the theoretical foundation for the work within the following two years of the CATNETS project. --Grid Computing

Are agent-based simulations robust? The wholesale electricity trading case

Agent-based computational economics is becoming widely used in practice. This paper explores the consistency of some of its standard techniques. We focus in particular on prevailing wholesale electricity trading simulation methods. We include different supply and demand representations and propose the Experience-Weighted Attractions method to include several behavioural algorithms. We compare the results across assumptions and to economic theory predictions. The match is good under best-response and reinforcement learning but not under fictitious play. The simulations perform well under flat and upward-slopping supply bidding, and also for plausible demand elasticity assumptions. Learning is influenced by the number of bids per plant and the initial conditions. The overall conclusion is that agent-based simulation assumptions are far from innocuous. We link their performance to underlying features, and identify those that are better suited to model wholesale electricity markets.Agent-based computational economics, electricity, market design, experience-weighted attraction (EWA), learning, supply functions, demand aggregation, initial beliefs.

Multi-energy retail market simulation with autonomous intelligent agents

Tese de doutoramento. Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores. 2005. Faculdade de Engenharia. Universidade do Port