Dispersion Models for Extremes

We propose extreme value analogues of natural exponential families and exponential dispersion models, and introduce the slope function as an analogue of the variance function. The set of quadratic and power slope functions characterize well-known families such as the Rayleigh, Gumbel, power, Pareto, logistic, negative exponential, Weibull and Fr\'echet. We show a convergence theorem for slope functions, by which we may express the classical extreme value convergence results in terms of asymptotics for extreme dispersion models. The main idea is to explore the parallels between location families and natural exponential families, and between the convolution and minimum operations.Comment: 23 pages. Abstract submitted to the 56th Session of the ISI, Lisboa, 200

Distributional Properties of means of Random Probability Measures

The present paper provides a review of the results concerning distributional properties of means of random probability measures. Our interest in this topic has originated from inferential problems in Bayesian Nonparametrics. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that these random quantities play an important role in seemingly unrelated areas of research. In fact, there is a wealth of contributions both in the statistics and in the probability literature that we try to summarize in a unified framework. Particular attention is devoted to means of the Dirichlet process given the relevance of the Dirichlet process in Bayesian Nonparametrics. We then present a number of recent contributions concerning means of more general random probability measures and highlight connections with the moment problem, combinatorics, special functions, excursions of stochastic processes and statistical physics.Bayesian Nonparametrics; Completely random measures; Cifarelli–Regazzini identity; Dirichlet process; Functionals of random probability measures; Generalized Stieltjes transform; Neutral to the right processes; Normalized random measures; Posterior distribution; Random means; Random probability measure; Two–parameter Poisson–Dirichlet process.

Distributional properties of means of random probability measures

The present paper provides a review of the results concerning distributional properties of means of random probability measures. Our interest in this topic has originated from inferential problems in Bayesian Nonparametrics. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that these random quantities play an important role in seemingly unrelated areas of research. In fact, there is a wealth of contributions both in the statistics and in the probability literature that we try to summarize in a unified framework. Particular attention is devoted to means of the Dirichlet process given the relevance of the Dirichlet process in Bayesian Nonparametrics. We then present a number of recent contributions concerning means of more general random probability measures and highlight connections with the moment problem, combinatorics, special functions, excursions of stochastic processes and statistical physics.Bayesian Nonparametrics; Completely random measures; Cifarelli-Regazzini identity; Dirichlet process; Functionals of random probability measures; Generalized Stieltjes transform; Neutral to the right processes; Normalized random measures; Posterior distribution; Random means; Random probability measure; Two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet process

Unit Root Tests in Three-Regime SETAR Models

This paper proposes a simple direct testing procedure to distinguish a linear unit root process from a globally stationary three-regime self-exciting threshold autoregressive process. We derive the asymptotic null distribution of the Wald statistic, and show that it does not depend on unknown fixed threshold values. Monte Carlo evidence clearly indicates that the exponential average of the Wald statistic is more powerful than the Dickey-Fuller test that ignores the threshold nature under the alternative.Self-exciting threshold autoregressive models, Unit roots, Globally stationary processes, Threshold cointegration, Wald tests, Monte Carlo simulations, Real exchange rates

Estimating Quantile Families of Loss Distributions for Non-Life Insurance Modelling via L-moments

This paper discusses different classes of loss models in non-life insurance settings. It then overviews the class Tukey transform loss models that have not yet been widely considered in non-life insurance modelling, but offer opportunities to produce flexible skewness and kurtosis features often required in loss modelling. In addition, these loss models admit explicit quantile specifications which make them directly relevant for quantile based risk measure calculations. We detail various parameterizations and sub-families of the Tukey transform based models, such as the g-and-h, g-and-k and g-and-j models, including their properties of relevance to loss modelling. One of the challenges with such models is to perform robust estimation for the loss model parameters that will be amenable to practitioners when fitting such models. In this paper we develop a novel, efficient and robust estimation procedure for estimation of model parameters in this family Tukey transform models, based on L-moments. It is shown to be more robust and efficient than current state of the art methods of estimation for such families of loss models and is simple to implement for practical purposes.Comment: 42 page

Closed-form approximations of moments and densities of continuous-time Markov models

This paper develops power series expansions of a general class of moment functions, including transition densities and option prices, of continuous-time Markov processes, including jump--diffusions. The proposed expansions extend the ones in Kristensen and Mele (2011) to cover general Markov processes. We demonstrate that the class of expansions nests the transition density and option price expansions developed in Yang, Chen, and Wan (2019) and Wan and Yang (2021) as special cases, thereby connecting seemingly different ideas in a unified framework. We show how the general expansion can be implemented for fully general jump--diffusion models. We provide a new theory for the validity of the expansions which shows that series expansions are not guaranteed to converge as more terms are added in general. Thus, these methods should be used with caution. At the same time, the numerical studies in this paper demonstrate good performance of the proposed implementation in practice when a small number of terms are included