Software tools for stochastic programming: A Stochastic Programming Integrated Environment (SPInE)

SP models combine the paradigm of dynamic linear programming with modelling of random parameters, providing optimal decisions which hedge against future uncertainties. Advances in hardware as well as software techniques and solution methods have made SP a viable optimisation tool. We identify a growing need for modelling systems which support the creation and investigation of SP problems. Our SPInE system integrates a number of components which include a flexible modelling tool (based on stochastic extensions of the algebraic modelling languages AMPL and MPL), stochastic solvers, as well as special purpose scenario generators and database tools. We introduce an asset/liability management model and illustrate how SPInE can be used to create and process this model as a multistage SP application

A CHANCE-CONSTRAINED APPROACH FOR OPTIMIZATION OF GAS PROCESSING PLANT OPERATION UNDER UNCERTAIN CONDITIONS

Natural gas plant operations contribute hugely to the economies of many developed nations that depend on hydrocarbon resources. The plant operation is usually subjected to continuous variations in upstream conditions, such as flow rate, composition, temperature and pressure, which propagate through the plant and affect its stable operations. As a result, decision making for optimal operating conditions of an in-operation plant is a complex problem and it is exacerbated with the changing product specifications and variations in energy supplies. This work presents a new solution method to the problem, which is based on chance constrained optimization method. A deterministic model is initially developed from process simulation using Aspen HYSYS and later converted to a chance constrained model. The probabilistic model is then relaxed to its equivalent deterministic form and solved for optimum solution using GAMS. The optimum solution is determined probabilistically using chance constraints that are held at a user-defined confidence level. Optimal solution is represented graphically as a trade-off between reliability of holding the process constraints and profitability of the plant. Three case studies are presented to demonstrate the new method. Optimization results show that uncertainty of plant parameters significantly affect the economic performance of the plant operation. The solution approach developed in this work is able to increase the reliability of maintaining the profit by more than 95% confidence level. As a result, the risk of constraints violation is reduced from more than 50% using the typical deterministic optimization to less than 5% with the chance constrained optimization approach. In addition, the results from this study indicate that the variation of material flow from the plant inlet has greater impact by more than 85.5% on profit compared to variation from the plant outlet, which is less than 2%. The variations of energy flow affect on profit is mainly changes with confidence level measurement higher than 95%, although material flow uncertainty is more sensitive to profit changes than uncertainty in energy flow. Final computational results also highlight the advantage of the developed chance constrained approach, which combines both the profit and the vi reliability of the process constraints, over “worst case” and two-stage programming approaches. Decisions from the “worst case” approach may reach to more than 99% confidence level which can drastically decrease the profit while the optimal decision from the two-stage programming does not clearly show to how much extent that the profit has been held. The developed solution approach in this work can aid as guidelines to flexible plant operation decision making for the in-operating plant by satisfying all the process constraints at certain confidence level

Enabling flexibility through strategic management of complex engineering systems

”Flexibility is a highly desired attribute of many systems operating in changing or uncertain conditions. It is a common theme in complex systems to identify where flexibility is generated within a system and how to model the processes needed to maintain and sustain flexibility. The key research question that is addressed is: how do we create a new definition of workforce flexibility within a human-technology-artificial intelligence environment? Workforce flexibility is the management of organizational labor capacities and capabilities in operational environments using a broad and diffuse set of tools and approaches to mitigate system imbalances caused by uncertainties or changes. We establish a baseline reference for managers to use in choosing flexibility methods for specific applications and we determine the scope and effectiveness of these traditional flexibility methods. The unique contributions of this research are: a) a new definition of workforce flexibility for a human-technology work environment versus traditional definitions; b) using a system of systems (SoS) approach to create and sustain that flexibility; and c) applying a coordinating strategy for optimal workforce flexibility within the human- technology framework. This dissertation research fills the gap of how we can model flexibility using SoS engineering to show where flexibility emerges and what strategies a manager can use to manage flexibility within this technology construct”--Abstract, page iii

Solution and quality robust project scheduling: a methodological framework.

The vast majority of the research efforts in project scheduling over the past several years has concentrated on the development of exact and suboptimal procedures for the generation of a baseline schedule assuming complete information and a deterministic environment. During execution, however, projects may be the subject of considerable uncertainty, which may lead to numerous schedule disruptions. Predictive-reactive scheduling refers to the process where a baseline schedule is developed prior to the start of the project and updated if necessary during project execution. It is the objective of this paper to review possible procedures for the generation of proactive (robust) schedules, which are as well as possible protected against schedule disruptions, and for the deployment of reactive scheduling procedures that may be used to revise or re-optimize the baseline schedule when unexpected events occur. We also offer a methodological framework that should allow project management to identify the proper scheduling methodology for different project scheduling environments. Finally, we survey the basics of Critical Chain scheduling and indicate in which environments it is useful.Framework; Information; Management; Processes; Project management; Project scheduling; Project scheduling under uncertainty; Stability; Robust scheduling; Quality; Scheduling; Stability; Uncertainty;

Integrated optimisation for production capacity, raw material ordering and production planning under time and quantity uncertainties based on two case studies

Abstract This paper develops a supply chain (SC) model by integrating raw material ordering and production planning, and production capacity decisions based upon two case studies in manufacturing firms. Multiple types of uncertainties are considered; including: time-related uncertainty (that exists in lead-time and delay) and quantity-related uncertainty (that exists in information and material flows). The SC model consists of several sub-models, which are first formulated mathematically. Simulation (simulation-based stochastic approximation) and genetic algorithm tools are then developed to evaluate several non-parameterised strategies and optimise two parameterised strategies. Experiments are conducted to contrast these strategies, quantify their relative performance, and illustrate the value of information and the impact of uncertainties. These case studies provide useful insights into understanding to what degree the integrated planning model including production capacity decisions could benefit economically in different scenarios, which types of data should be shared, and how these data could be utilised to achieve a better SC system. This study provides insights for small and middle-sized firm management to make better decisions regarding production capacity issues with respect to external uncertainty and/or disruptions; e.g. trade wars and pandemics.</jats:p

Stochastic-optimization of equipment productivity in multi-seam formations

Short and long range planning and execution for multi-seam coal formations (MSFs) are challenging with complex extraction mechanisms. Stripping equipment selection and scheduling are functions of the physical dynamics of the mine and the operational mechanisms of its components, thus its productivity is dependent on these parameters. Previous research studies did not incorporate quantitative relationships between equipment productivities and extraction dynamics in MSFs. The intrinsic variability of excavation and spoiling dynamics must also form part of existing models. This research formulates quantitative relationships of equipment productivities using Branch-and-Bound algorithms and Lagrange Parameterization approaches. The stochastic processes are resolved via Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube simulation techniques within @RISK framework. The model was presented with a bituminous coal mining case in the Appalachian field. The simulated results showed a 3.51% improvement in mining cost and 0.19% increment in net present value. A 76.95yd³ drop in productivity per unit change in cycle time was recorded for sub-optimal equipment schedules. The geologic variability and equipment operational parameters restricted any possible change in the cost function. A 50.3% chance of the mining cost increasing above its current value was driven by the volume of material re-handled with 0.52 regression coefficient. The study advances the optimization process in mine planning and scheduling algorithms, to efficiently capture future uncertainties surrounding multivariate random functions. The main novelty includes the application of stochastic-optimization procedures to improve equipment productivity in MSFs --Abstract, page iii

Production planning of biopharmaceutical manufacture.

Multiproduct manufacturing facilities running on a campaign basis are increasingly becoming the norm for biopharmaceuticals, owing to high risks of clinical failure, regulatory pressures and the increasing number of therapeutics in clinical evaluation. The need for such flexible plants and cost-effective manufacture pose significant challenges for planning and scheduling, which are compounded by long production lead times, intermediate product stability issues and the high cost - low volume nature of biopharmaceutical manufacture. Scheduling and planning decisions are often made in the presence of variable product titres, campaign durations, contamination rates and product demands. Hence this thesis applies mathematical programming techniques to the planning of biopharmaceutical manufacture in order to identify more optimal production plans under different manufacturing scenarios. A deterministic mixed integer linear programming (MILP) medium term planning model which explicitly accounts for upstream and downstream processing is presented. A multiscenario MILP model for the medium term planning of biopharmaceutical manufacture under uncertainty is presented and solved using an iterative solution procedure. An alternative stochastic formulation for the medium term planning of biomanufacture under uncertainty based on the principles of chance constrained programming is also presented. To help manage the risks of long term capacity planning in the biopharmaceutical industry, a goal programming extension is presented which accounts for multiple objectives including cost, risk and customer service level satisfaction. The model is applied to long term capacity analysis of a mix of contractors and owned biopharmaceutical manufacturing facilities. In the final sections of this thesis an example of a commercial application of this work is presented, followed by a discussion on related validation issues in the biopharmaceutical industry. The work in this thesis highlighted the benefits of applying mathematical programming techniques for production planning of biopharmaceutical manufacturing facilities, so as to enhance the biopharmaceutical industry's strategic and operational decision-making towards achieving more cost-effective manufacture