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The Network Dynamics Of Social Influence In The Wisdom Of Crowds
Research on the wisdom of crowds is motivated by the observation that the average belief in a large group can be accurate even when group members are individually inaccurate. A common theoretical assumption in previous research is that accurate group beliefs can emerge only when group members are statistically independent. However, network models of belief formation suggest that the effect of social influence depends on the structure of social networks. We present a theoretical overview and two experimental studies showing that, under the right conditions, social influence can improve the accuracy of both individual group members and the group as a whole. The results support the argument that interacting groups can produce collective intelligence that surpasses the collected intelligence of independent individuals
Finite-time influence systems and the Wisdom of Crowd effect
Recent contributions have studied how an influence system may affect the
wisdom of crowd phenomenon. In the so-called naive learning setting, a crowd of
individuals holds opinions that are statistically independent estimates of an
unknown parameter; the crowd is wise when the average opinion converges to the
true parameter in the limit of infinitely many individuals. Unfortunately, even
starting from wise initial opinions, a crowd subject to certain influence
systems may lose its wisdom. It is of great interest to characterize when an
influence system preserves the crowd wisdom effect. In this paper we introduce
and characterize numerous wisdom preservation properties of the basic
French-DeGroot influence system model. Instead of requiring complete
convergence to consensus as in the previous naive learning model by Golub and
Jackson, we study finite-time executions of the French-DeGroot influence
process and establish in this novel context the notion of prominent families
(as a group of individuals with outsize influence). Surprisingly, finite-time
wisdom preservation of the influence system is strictly distinct from its
infinite-time version. We provide a comprehensive treatment of various
finite-time wisdom preservation notions, counterexamples to meaningful
conjectures, and a complete characterization of equal-neighbor influence
systems
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