A variational approach to path estimation and parameter inference of hidden diffusion processes

We consider a hidden Markov model, where the signal process, given by a diffusion, is only indirectly observed through some noisy measurements. The article develops a variational method for approximating the hidden states of the signal process given the full set of observations. This, in particular, leads to systematic approximations of the smoothing densities of the signal process. The paper then demonstrates how an efficient inference scheme, based on this variational approach to the approximation of the hidden states, can be designed to estimate the unknown parameters of stochastic differential equations. Two examples at the end illustrate the efficacy and the accuracy of the presented method.Comment: 37 pages, 2 figures, revise

An Optimal Control Derivation of Nonlinear Smoothing Equations

The purpose of this paper is to review and highlight some connections between the problem of nonlinear smoothing and optimal control of the Liouville equation. The latter has been an active area of recent research interest owing to work in mean-field games and optimal transportation theory. The nonlinear smoothing problem is considered here for continuous-time Markov processes. The observation process is modeled as a nonlinear function of a hidden state with an additive Gaussian measurement noise. A variational formulation is described based upon the relative entropy formula introduced by Newton and Mitter. The resulting optimal control problem is formulated on the space of probability distributions. The Hamilton's equation of the optimal control are related to the Zakai equation of nonlinear smoothing via the log transformation. The overall procedure is shown to generalize the classical Mortensen's minimum energy estimator for the linear Gaussian problem.Comment: 7 pages, 0 figures, under peer reviewin

Non-parametric Estimation of Stochastic Differential Equations with Sparse Gaussian Processes

The application of Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) to the analysis of temporal data has attracted increasing attention, due to their ability to describe complex dynamics with physically interpretable equations. In this paper, we introduce a non-parametric method for estimating the drift and diffusion terms of SDEs from a densely observed discrete time series. The use of Gaussian processes as priors permits working directly in a function-space view and thus the inference takes place directly in this space. To cope with the computational complexity that requires the use of Gaussian processes, a sparse Gaussian process approximation is provided. This approximation permits the efficient computation of predictions for the drift and diffusion terms by using a distribution over a small subset of pseudo-samples. The proposed method has been validated using both simulated data and real data from economy and paleoclimatology. The application of the method to real data demonstrates its ability to capture the behaviour of complex systems

Moment-Based Variational Inference for Markov Jump Processes

We propose moment-based variational inference as a flexible framework for approximate smoothing of latent Markov jump processes. The main ingredient of our approach is to partition the set of all transitions of the latent process into classes. This allows to express the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the approximate and the exact posterior process in terms of a set of moment functions that arise naturally from the chosen partition. To illustrate possible choices of the partition, we consider special classes of jump processes that frequently occur in applications. We then extend the results to parameter inference and demonstrate the method on several examples.Comment: Accepted by the 36th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2019