What lies behind the data? How sampling assumptions shape and are shaped by inductive inference

The problems of everyday cognition, from perception to social interaction and higher level reasoning, require us to predict future events and outcomes on the basis of past experience. But often (if not always) solutions to the problems we face are under-determined by our experience. So we reason inductively, drawing uncertain conclusions from incomplete information. Yet, despite our lack of first hand data, our reasoning is efficient and effective nonetheless. So how do we close the gap between the paucity of experience and the effectiveness of reason? One way that we do this is by exploiting statistical regularities that we have observed in the world, assuming (contra philosophers’ counsel) that these regularities will continue to hold. In so doing, we leverage the evidentiary value of the data that we do have. This thesis examines our assumptions about what lies beneath the data and how we leverage them to reason beyond it. In particular, it focuses on our mental models of the world – generative models that connect observations to hypotheses through their consequences. I consider the assumptions we make in solving three separate reasoning problems of increasing complexity. Firstly, in a series of related experiments I explore the effect of sampling assumptions in a categorisation task based on low-dimensional perceptual stimuli. Together, these experiments examine how reasoners weigh the value of extra data when deciding how far to generalise, and the extent to which the computations involved are influenced by their representational and sampling assumptions. In addition, I use the same experimental framework to investigate a related question: if people’s sampling assumptions do alter the weighing of evidence, at what stage do these effects manifest – during learning, or only at the point of generalisation? Secondly, I examine the role of sampling assumptions in the shift from percept to concept. A key challenge for the reasoner when reasoning from high-dimensional categorical stimuli is in deciding which of the many dimensions or features represent the appropriate basis for induction. I investigate how the perceived relevance of particular features in the data is affected by people’s assumptions about the representativeness of the sampling process. In almost every sphere of human activity, we reason from data generated by others and we generate data from which others will reason. Equipped with a theory of mind, both senders and receivers of data may exploit recursive “I think, you think, I think...” reasoning to increase the evidentiary weight of data, and improve the utility of communication as a result. But when data is highly leveraged in this way, there is a downside risk. If reciprocal assumptions are not well calibrated, the reasoner may leap to the wrong conclusion. In the final study, I investigate the phenomena of recursive meta-inference in a setting where deception is warranted but lying is not an option – a setting which offers particular advantages. Firstly, when perpetrating or avoiding a deception, some degree of meta-inferential assumption becomes a vital pre-requisite. Secondly, placing the goals of communicating parties at odds offers the potential to more easily distinguish whether people engage in genuine reflection about the assumptions of another or merely respond to constraints implicit in the sampling process. The studies described in this thesis deal with progressively more complex challenges that we face as reasoners: how far should we generalise when the basis of induction is clear, how do we determine the relevant basis for induction in the first place, and how do we calibrate our own inductive inference with that of another. Through a combination of computational modelling and human behavioural experiments I demonstrate how our sampling assumptions influence the way we meet these challenges, and how our solution to each challenge may be inter-related.Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Psychology, 201

Toward Arctic transitions and sustainability: modeling risks and resilience across scales of governance

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2017The Arctic region has been the subject of international attention in recent years. The magnitude of impacts from global climate change, land-use change, and speculations about economic development and accessible polar shipping lanes have intensified this focus. As a result, the potential to manage complex ecological, social and political relationships in the context of changes, risks and opportunities is the focus of a large and growing body of research. This dissertation contributes to the expanding scholarship on managing Arctic social-ecological systems for resilience by answering the question: What conditions improve cross-scale learning and resilience in nested social-ecological systems experiencing rapid changes? Using the framework of social-ecological systems and the drivers of change that can transform fundamental relationships within, three studies profile the spatial and temporal dimensions of learning and risk perceptions that impact nested social systems. The first study presents a spatial and temporal analysis of scale- and level-specific processes that impact learning from risks. It draws on four cases to underscore the need for a plurality of risk assumptions in learning for resilience, and sums up essential resources needed to support key decision points for increasing resilience. Two additional studies present research conducted with northern Alaska communities and resource managers. In these studies, I analyzed the extent to which perceptions of risks scale horizontally (between same-level jurisdictions), and vertically (between levels in a dominant jurisdictional structure). These examples illustrate the need for innovative institutions to enhance cross-scale learning, and to balance global drivers of change with local socioeconomic, cultural, and ecological interests. Based on findings of the dissertation research I propose recommendations to optimize the tools and processes of complex decision making under uncertainty

Network governance and public policy: language planning and language policy in Australia and Greece within a globalising context (1970-2005)

This thesis is a study of language planning and language policy in Australia and Greece between 1970 and 2005, in the light of network governability and public policy within a globalised context. How different countries and their governments respond to language education challenges and how they initiate and sustain language planning and policy changes are essential for the population of the country. It is an ongoing challenge. The critical issue that this study examines is how countries, in particular Australia and Greece, organise their public policy arrangements in comparison to one another to give effect to economic and social rationales within a competitive global environment. Accordingly, this study orients its direction towards the recent past and the contemporary period focusing on language education within national, regional and global socio-political and economic contexts, thus encouraging an examination of the influences on decision-making. The key to addressing this critical issue depends on how well Australia and Greece have, each in their specific context, designed planning for language education and implemented and evaluated programs based on the aims and objectives of planning and policy. Furthermore the performance of the respective countries depends on what they can learn from the other’s performance in the area of language planning and policy implementation to maintain a global competitive advantage

Vagueness in mathematics talk

The Cockcroft Report claimed that "mathematics provides a means of communication which is powerful, concise and unambiguous". Such precision in language may be a conventional aim of mathematics, particularly when communicated in writing. Nonetheless, as this thesis demonstrates, vagueness is commonplace when people talk about mathematics. In this thesis, I examine the circumstances in which vagueness arises in mathematics talk, and consider the practical purposes which speakers achieve by means of vague utterances in this context. The empirical database, which is considered in Chapters 4 to 7, consists almost entirely of transcripts of mathematical conversations between adult interviewers (including myself) and one or two children. The data were collected from clinical interviews focused on a small number of tasks, and from fragments of teaching. For the most part, the pupils involved in the study were aged between 9 and 12, although the age-range in Chapter 7 extends from 4 to 25. I draw on a number of approaches to discourse associated with 'pragmatics' -a field of linguistics - to analyse the motives and communicative effectiveness of speakers who deploy vagueness in mathematics talk. I claim that, for these speakers, vagueness fulfills a number of purposes, especially 'shielding', i. e. self-protection against accusation of being wrong. Another purpose is to give approximate information; sometimes to achieve shielding, but also to provide the level of detail that is deemed to be appropriate in a given situation. A different purpose, associated with a particular form of vagueness (of reference), is to compensate for lexical gaps in pursuit of effective communication of concepts and ideas. I show, in particular, how speakers use the pronouns 'it' and 'you' in mathematics talk to communicate concepts and generalisations. Some consideration is given to the intentions of 'expert speakers of mathematics when they deploy vague language. Their purposes include some of those identified for novices. Teachers also use vagueness as a means of indirectness in addressing pupils; this strategy is associated with the redress of 'face threatening acts'. My thesis is that vagueness can be viewed and presented, not as a disabling feature of language, but as a subtle and versatile device which speakers can and do deploy to make mathematical assertions with as much precision, accuracy or as much confidence as they judge is warranted by both the content and the circumstances of their utterances. I report on the validation and generalisation of my findings by an Informal Research Group of school teachers, who transcribed and analysed their own classroom interactions using the methods I had developed

An empirical study of marketing environment strategy and performance in the property market

By adapting industrial organisation, resource based theories and PIMS database research, the study proposes the organisation-environment-strategy-performance (OESP) framework and a model of property marketing in the Taiwan property market. The thesis proposed and tested an integrative model of business performance incorporating the major determinants of business performance, internal and external environment, and competitive marketing strategy. The thesis proposed and tested hypothesised relationships among four external marketing environment dimensions, four internal marketing environment dimensions, seven marketing strategies dimensions and four performance variables. By focusing on both construct and tests of hypothesised relationships, the study aims to strengthen the empirical foundation of marketing strategy research. The research findings reported are based on a mail survey of 102 property marketing business managers. Separated and integrated models were developed, and the relationships presented in the research questions were tested using two-year panel survey and retrospective longitudinal study (year 2000-2001) of 102 firms in the Taiwan property industry. Pooled cross-sectional time series regression and multiple regress methods were employed to test the research hypotheses and exploratory propositions. In the separated model, internal environment variables (market orientation, product advantage and resource commitment) were not found to be statistically explanations of variance in business performance. Of the external environment variables, demand potential and technological change were found to be key explanatory factors of variance in business unit performance. Marketing strategy variables such as product positioning and sales force expenditures were found to be statistically significant explanatory factors of variance in business performance. Product-market scope strategy is affected by the product advantage and resource commitment while promotion element decision is affected by technical change and resource commitment. Distribution decision is determined by competitive intensity, customer orientation and prior performance. Product positioning is affected by the product advantage while strategic alliance is determined by market attractiveness and technical change pressure. No marketing environment and prior performance factors were found to affect sales force expenditures and pricing decisions. The substitute of competitors factor is found to be statistically significant explanatory power of variance in market orientation and resource commitment

Exploring emergence in corporate sustainability

As the impacts of climate change intensify, businesses are increasingly committing to ambitious sustainable development goals, yet an enduring disconnect remains between corporate sustainability activities and declining global environment and society. This study adopts a complexity view that reductionism associated with Newtonian thinking has played a key role in creating many of the sustainability issues now faced by humanity. This dissertation departs from the premise that sustainability needs to be integrated into an organisation and uses a complexity view to argue that corporate sustainability is a co-evolutionary process of emergence. Whilst many studies have examined how sustainability can be integrated into a business, less is known about corporate sustainability as an emergent process. To address the knowledge gap, this research answered three questions: (1) How does sustainability emerge in financial institutions? (2) What is the role of coherence in the emergence of sustainability? and (3) What conditions enable the emergence of sustainability? A mixed method sequential design was used. In the initial quantitative strand of the research, a holistic business assessment survey based on integral theory was implemented in two financial services organisations in Southern Africa. The results were analysed using self-organising maps and explored in narrative interviews in the subsequent qualitative strand of the research. The study makes three contributions to our understanding of emergence in corporate sustainability. First, by proposing four modes by which corporate sustainability is enacted; these elucidate how integral domains are enacted in corporate sustainability. Second, by clarifying the process of emergence by articulating how zones of coherence emerge between embodied and embedded dimensions. Third, by explaining how the shift to corporate sustainability occurs by means of four conditions. These contributions serve to advance our understanding of corporate sustainability as a fundamental shift in the functioning of an organisation towards coevolutionary self-organisation. It is recommended that corporate sustainability is holistically cultivated to support emergence and self-organisation, rather than being integrated through a linear process of change