Bayesian Poisson process partition calculus with an application to Bayesian L\'evy moving averages

This article develops, and describes how to use, results concerning disintegrations of Poisson random measures. These results are fashioned as simple tools that can be tailor-made to address inferential questions arising in a wide range of Bayesian nonparametric and spatial statistical models. The Poisson disintegration method is based on the formal statement of two results concerning a Laplace functional change of measure and a Poisson Palm/Fubini calculus in terms of random partitions of the integers {1,...,n}. The techniques are analogous to, but much more general than, techniques for the Dirichlet process and weighted gamma process developed in [Ann. Statist. 12 (1984) 351-357] and [Ann. Inst. Statist. Math. 41 (1989) 227-245]. In order to illustrate the flexibility of the approach, large classes of random probability measures and random hazards or intensities which can be expressed as functionals of Poisson random measures are described. We describe a unified posterior analysis of classes of discrete random probability which identifies and exploits features common to all these models. The analysis circumvents many of the difficult issues involved in Bayesian nonparametric calculus, including a combinatorial component. This allows one to focus on the unique features of each process which are characterized via real valued functions h. The applicability of the technique is further illustrated by obtaining explicit posterior expressions for L\'evy-Cox moving average processes within the general setting of multiplicative intensity models.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053605000000336 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Developing individualized education programs with culturally and linguistically diverse families from low-income homes : a heuristic inquiry of special education teachers

Research shows evidence of overrepresentation of culturally and linguistically diverse children enrolled in special education services, a positive correlation between parent involvement and academic success, and a plethora of barriers impeding active 6 parent participation in IEP development. Barriers include language, culture, low income, . and school climate and team dynamics. The aim of this study was to explore: (a) In what ways do special education teachers engage with culturally and linguistically diverse families from low-income homes in the IEP development process? (b) In what ways do special education teachers address culturally and linguistically diverse children\u27s educational needs while also addressing both legal and workplace expectations? (c) In what ways do special education teachers develop IEPs with culturally and linguistically diverse families from low-income homes addressing both legal and workplace expectations? These questions were addressed qualitatively utilizing Moustakas\u27s heuristic inquiry. Deductively exploring themes using Lipsky\u27s street-level bureaucracy framework exposed challenges special education teachers in this study had addressing both legal and workplace expectations, such as meeting IDEA 2004 mandates. With a systems theory approach, themes and subthemes were identified as being interconnected. Power imbalances between stakeholders and socioeconomic differences across families appeared to be the most prolific barriers impeding parent participation. Inductive analysis explored emergent and uncovered themes elucidating what it meant to be a special education teacher

Minimal Frames and Transparent Frames for Risk, Time, and Uncertainty

It has been argued that behavior differs between transparent and nontransparent representations of a decision. However, the notion of a ‘transparent representation’ has not been precisely defined. We address this gap by providing formal definitions of ‘transparent frames’ for risk and time, establishing their uniqueness, presenting an approach to construct such frames, and comparing these framesto the ‘standard’ presentation format. Our typology of frames provides a logic for predicting systematic shifts in risk and time preferences as well as changes in the violation rates of rational choice theory. We conduct an experiment for choice under risk to investigate the framing effect between transparent and ‘standard’ frames and find such framing to be an important source of non-random variation in observed risk preferences. We also extend our approach to choice under uncertainty and derive the novel prediction that ambiguity aversion is frame dependent, a result supported by recent experimental evidence

On the Foundations of the Brussels Operational-Realistic Approach to Cognition

The scientific community is becoming more and more interested in the research that applies the mathematical formalism of quantum theory to model human decision-making. In this paper, we provide the theoretical foundations of the quantum approach to cognition that we developed in Brussels. These foundations rest on the results of two decade studies on the axiomatic and operational-realistic approaches to the foundations of quantum physics. The deep analogies between the foundations of physics and cognition lead us to investigate the validity of quantum theory as a general and unitary framework for cognitive processes, and the empirical success of the Hilbert space models derived by such investigation provides a strong theoretical confirmation of this validity. However, two situations in the cognitive realm, 'question order effects' and 'response replicability', indicate that even the Hilbert space framework could be insufficient to reproduce the collected data. This does not mean that the mentioned operational-realistic approach would be incorrect, but simply that a larger class of measurements would be in force in human cognition, so that an extended quantum formalism may be needed to deal with all of them. As we will explain, the recently derived 'extended Bloch representation' of quantum theory (and the associated 'general tension-reduction' model) precisely provides such extended formalism, while remaining within the same unitary interpretative framework.Comment: 21 page

The Limited Viability of Dual Exchange-Rate Regimes

This paper examines the viability of dual exchange-rate regimes. Typically, under such a regime the exchange rates applicable to current-account(commercial) transactions and to capital-account (financial) transactions differ from each other. This difference may be determined in the free market if the authorities peg the commercial exchange rate and set a binding quota on external borrowing, or it may result from direct pegging of both exchange rates. The analysis starts with a specification of the characteristics of the distortion introduced by the exchange-rate premium (that is, the percentage discrepancy between the financial and the commercial exchange rates), and then provides explicit formula for the equilibrium premium, for its evolution over time and for the welfare cost induced by the distortion. The paper outlines the set of policy options consistent with sustaining a permanently viable dual exchange-rate system and highlights the severe constraints that intertemporal solvency requirements of the private sector and of the government impose on the long-run viability of the regime. The paper concludes with an analysis of the monetary changes associated with dual exchange-rate policies and draws the implications of such a regime for the intertemporal distribution of taxes and for the intergenerational distribution of welfare.

Whalesong

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