Tracking Uncertainty Propagation from Model to Formalization: Illustration on Trust Assessment

International audienceThis paper investigates the use of the URREF ontology to characterize and track uncertainties arising within the modeling and formalization phases. Estimation of trust in reported information, a real-world problem of interest to practitioners in the field of security, was adopted for illustration purposes. A functional model of trust was developed to describe the analysis of reported information, and it was implemented with belief functions. When assessing trust in reported information, the uncertainty arises not only from the quality of sources or information content, but also due to the inability of models to capture the complex chain of interactions leading to the final outcome and to constraints imposed by the representation formalism. A primary goal of this work is to separate known approximations, imperfections and inaccuracies from potential errors, while explicitly tracking the uncertainty from the modeling to the formalization phases. A secondary goal is to illustrate how criteria of the URREF ontology can offer a basis for analyzing performances of fusion systems at early stages, ahead of implementation. Ideally, since uncertainty analysis runs dynamically, it can use the existence or absence of observed states and processes inducing uncertainty to adjust the tradeoff between precision and performance of systems on-the-fly

Security and Privacy Dimensions in Next Generation DDDAS/Infosymbiotic Systems: A Position Paper

AbstractThe omnipresent pervasiveness of personal devices will expand the applicability of the Dynamic Data Driven Application Systems (DDDAS) paradigm in innumerable ways. While every single smartphone or wearable device is potentially a sensor with powerful computing and data capabilities, privacy and security in the context of human participants must be addressed to leverage the infinite possibilities of dynamic data driven application systems. We propose a security and privacy preserving framework for next generation systems that harness the full power of the DDDAS paradigm while (1) ensuring provable privacy guarantees for sensitive data; (2) enabling field-level, intermediate, and central hierarchical feedback-driven analysis for both data volume mitigation and security; and (3) intrinsically addressing uncertainty caused either by measurement error or security-driven data perturbation. These thrusts will form the foundation for secure and private deployments of large scale hybrid participant-sensor DDDAS systems of the future

Advances and Applications of Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT) for Information Fusion (Collected Works), Vol. 4

The fourth volume on Advances and Applications of Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT) for information fusion collects theoretical and applied contributions of researchers working in different fields of applications and in mathematics. The contributions (see List of Articles published in this book, at the end of the volume) have been published or presented after disseminating the third volume (2009, http://fs.unm.edu/DSmT-book3.pdf) in international conferences, seminars, workshops and journals. First Part of this book presents the theoretical advancement of DSmT, dealing with Belief functions, conditioning and deconditioning, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Decision Making, Multi-Criteria, evidence theory, combination rule, evidence distance, conflicting belief, sources of evidences with different importance and reliabilities, importance of sources, pignistic probability transformation, Qualitative reasoning under uncertainty, Imprecise belief structures, 2-Tuple linguistic label, Electre Tri Method, hierarchical proportional redistribution, basic belief assignment, subjective probability measure, Smarandache codification, neutrosophic logic, Evidence theory, outranking methods, Dempster-Shafer Theory, Bayes fusion rule, frequentist probability, mean square error, controlling factor, optimal assignment solution, data association, Transferable Belief Model, and others. More applications of DSmT have emerged in the past years since the apparition of the third book of DSmT 2009. Subsequently, the second part of this volume is about applications of DSmT in correlation with Electronic Support Measures, belief function, sensor networks, Ground Moving Target and Multiple target tracking, Vehicle-Born Improvised Explosive Device, Belief Interacting Multiple Model filter, seismic and acoustic sensor, Support Vector Machines, Alarm classification, ability of human visual system, Uncertainty Representation and Reasoning Evaluation Framework, Threat Assessment, Handwritten Signature Verification, Automatic Aircraft Recognition, Dynamic Data-Driven Application System, adjustment of secure communication trust analysis, and so on. Finally, the third part presents a List of References related with DSmT published or presented along the years since its inception in 2004, chronologically ordered

Semantic Decision Support for Information Fusion Applications

La thèse s'inscrit dans le domaine de la représentation des connaissances et la modélisation de l'incertitude dans un contexte de fusion d'informations. L'idée majeure est d'utiliser les outils sémantiques que sont les ontologies, non seulement pour représenter les connaissances générales du domaine et les observations, mais aussi pour représenter les incertitudes que les sources introduisent dans leurs observations. Nous proposons de représenter ces incertitudes au travers d'une méta-ontologie (DS-ontology) fondée sur la théorie des fonctions de croyance. La contribution de ce travail porte sur la définition d'opérateurs d'inclusion et d'intersection sémantique et sur lesquels s'appuie la mise en œuvre de la théorie des fonctions de croyance, et sur le développement d'un outil appelé FusionLab permettant la fusion d'informations sémantiques à partir du développement théorique précédent. Une application de ces travaux a été réalisée dans le cadre d'un projet de surveillance maritime.This thesis is part of the knowledge representation domain and modeling of uncertainty in a context of information fusion. The main idea is to use semantic tools and more specifically ontologies, not only to represent the general domain knowledge and observations, but also to represent the uncertainty that sources may introduce in their own observations. We propose to represent these uncertainties and semantic imprecision trough a metaontology (called DS-Ontology) based on the theory of belief functions. The contribution of this work focuses first on the definition of semantic inclusion and intersection operators for ontologies and on which relies the implementation of the theory of belief functions, and secondly on the development of a tool called FusionLab for merging semantic information within ontologies from the previous theorical development. These works have been applied within a European maritime surveillance project.ROUEN-INSA Madrillet (765752301) / SudocSudocFranceF

Fusion of Information and Analytics: A Discussion on Potential Methods to Cope with Uncertainty in Complex Environments (Big Data and IoT)

International audienceInformation overload and complexity are core problems to most organizations of today. The advances in networking capabilities have created the conditions of complexity by enabling richer, real-time interactions between and among individuals, objects, systems and organizations. Fusion of Information and Analytics Technologies (FIAT) are key enablers for the design of current and future decision support systems to support prognosis, diagnosis, and prescriptive tasks in such complex environments. Hundreds of methods and technologies exist, and several books have been dedicated to either analytics or information fusion so far. However, very few have discussed the methodological aspects and the need of integrating frameworks for these techniques coming from multiple disciplines. This paper presents a discussion of potential integrating frameworks as well as the development of a computational model to evolve FIAT-based systems capable of meeting the challenges of complex environments such as in Big Data and Internet of Things (IoT)

Quality of Information in Mobile Crowdsensing: Survey and Research Challenges

Smartphones have become the most pervasive devices in people's lives, and are clearly transforming the way we live and perceive technology. Today's smartphones benefit from almost ubiquitous Internet connectivity and come equipped with a plethora of inexpensive yet powerful embedded sensors, such as accelerometer, gyroscope, microphone, and camera. This unique combination has enabled revolutionary applications based on the mobile crowdsensing paradigm, such as real-time road traffic monitoring, air and noise pollution, crime control, and wildlife monitoring, just to name a few. Differently from prior sensing paradigms, humans are now the primary actors of the sensing process, since they become fundamental in retrieving reliable and up-to-date information about the event being monitored. As humans may behave unreliably or maliciously, assessing and guaranteeing Quality of Information (QoI) becomes more important than ever. In this paper, we provide a new framework for defining and enforcing the QoI in mobile crowdsensing, and analyze in depth the current state-of-the-art on the topic. We also outline novel research challenges, along with possible directions of future work.Comment: To appear in ACM Transactions on Sensor Networks (TOSN

A Systematic Review of Smart City Infrastructure Threat Modelling Methodologies: A Bayesian Focused Review

Smart city infrastructure and the related theme of critical national infrastructure have attracted growing interest in recent years in academic literature, notably how cyber-security can be effectively applied within the environment, which involves using cyber-physical systems. These operate cross-domain and have massively improved functionality and complexity, especially in threat modelling cyber-security analysis—the disparity between current cyber-security proficiency and the requirements for an effective cyber-security systems implementation. Analysing risk across the entire analysed system can be associated with many different cyber security methods for overall cyber risk analysis or identifying vulnerability for individually modelled objects. One method for performing risk analysis proposed in the literature is by applying Bayesian-based threat modelling methodologies. This paper performs a systematic literature review of Bayesian networks and unique alternative methodologies for smart city infrastructure analysis and related critical national infrastructures. A comparative analysis of the different methodological approaches, considering the many intricacies, metrics, and methods behind them, with suggestions made for future research in the field of cyber-physical threat modelling for smart city infrastructure

Information Fusion Methodology for Enhancing Situation Awareness in Connected Cars Environment

This dissertation introduces novel approaches to develop a comprehensive model to address situation awareness in the Internet of Cars, called Attention Assist Framework (AAF). The proposed framework utilizes both Low-Level Data Fusion (LLDF), and High-Level Information Fusion (HLIF) to implement traffic entity, situation, and impact assessment, as well as decision making. The Internet of Cars is the convergence of the Internet of Things and Vehicular Ad-hoc Networks (VANETs). In fact, VANETs are the communication platforms that make possible the implementation of the Internet of Cars, and has become an integral part of this research field due to its major role to improve vehicle and road safety, traffic efficiency, and convenience as well as comfort to both drivers and passengers. Significant amount of VANETs research work has been focused on specific areas such as safety, routing, broadcasting, Quality of Service (QoS), and security. Among them, road safety issues are deemed one of the most challenging problems of VANETs. Specifically, lack of proper situational awareness of drivers has been shown to be the main cause of road accidents which makes it a major factor in road safety. The traffic entity assessment relies on a LLDF framework that is able to incorporate various multi-sensor data fusion approaches with means of communication links in VANETs. This is used to implement a cooperative localization approach through fusing common data fusion methods, such as Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and Unscented Transform (UT), and vehicle-to-vehicle communication in VANETs. Furthermore, traffic situation assessment is based on a fuzzy extension to the Multi-Entity Bayesian Networks (MEBNs), which exploit the expressiveness of first-order logic for semantic relations, and the strength of the Fuzzy Bayesian Networks in handling uncertainty, while tackling the inherent vagueness in the soft data created by human entities. Finally, the impact assessment and decision making is realized through incorporating notions of game theory into Fuzzy-MEBNs, and introducing Active Fuzzy-MEBN (ATFY-MEBN), which is capable in hypothesizing future situations by assessing the impact of the current situation upon taking the actions indicated by an optimal strategy. In fact, such strategies are achieved through solving the games that are generated through a novel situation-specific normal form games generation algorithm that aims to create games based on the given context. In general, ATFY-MEBN presents the concepts of players and actions, and includes new game components, along with a 2-tier architecture, to efficiently model impact assessment and decision making. To demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed framework, a collision warning system simulator is developed, which evaluates the likelihood of a vehicle being in a near-collision situation using a wide variety of both local and global information sources available in the VANETs environment, and suggests an optimal action by assessing the impact of the current situation through generating and solving situation-specific games. Accordingly, first, the entities that highly influence the safety aspect, as well as both their casual and semantic relationships are identified. Next, an ATFY-MEBN-based model is presented, which allows for modeling these entities along with their relationships in specific contexts, assessing the current states of the situations of interest, predicting their future states, and finally suggesting optimal decision. Therefore, if the likelihood of being in a near-collision situation is determined to be high, and if the relevant situation-specific game is generated, then the impact of deciding on different combinations of actions that the game players take are calculated through a pre-fixed payoff function. Finally, the completed game is solved by finding its dominant strategy, that subsequently, results in proposing the optimal action to the driver. Our experimental results are divided into three main sections, through which we evaluate the capabilities of the traffic entity, situation, and impact assessment methods. Accordingly, the performance of the proposed cooperative localization approach is assessed by comparing its results with the ground truth solution and that of the other localization methods in various driving test cases. Moreover, two distinct single-vehicle and multi-vehicles categories of driving scenarios, as well as a novel hybrid MEBN inference, demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed traffic assessment model to efficiently achieve situation and threat assessment on the road. Finally, the impact assessment and decision making models are evaluated through two different scenarios of driving in highway and intersection that are formed with various number of player vehicles, and their actions