Forecasting high waters at Venice Lagoon using chaotic time series analisys and nonlinear neural netwoks

Time series analysis using nonlinear dynamics systems theory and multilayer neural networks models have been applied to the time sequence of water level data recorded every hour at 'Punta della Salute' from Venice Lagoon during the years 1980-1994. The first method is based on the reconstruction of the state space attractor using time delay embedding vectors and on the characterisation of invariant properties which define its dynamics. The results suggest the existence of a low dimensional chaotic attractor with a Lyapunov dimension, DL, of around 6.6 and a predictability between 8 and 13 hours ahead. Furthermore, once the attractor has been reconstructed it is possible to make predictions by mapping local-neighbourhood to local-neighbourhood in the reconstructed phase space. To compare the prediction results with another nonlinear method, two nonlinear autoregressive models (NAR) based on multilayer feedforward neural networks have been developed. From the study, it can be observed that nonlinear forecasting produces adequate results for the 'normal' dynamic behaviour of the water level of Venice Lagoon, outperforming linear algorithms, however, both methods fail to forecast the 'high water' phenomenon more than 2-3 hours ahead.Publicad

An efficient nonlinear cardinal B-spline model for high tide forecasts at the Venice Lagoon

An efficient class of nonlinear models, constructed using cardinal B-spline (CBS) basis functions, are proposed for high tide forecasts at the Venice lagoon. Accurate short term predictions of high tides in the lagoon can easily be calculated using the proposed CBS models

Statistical characterization of spatio-temporal sediment dynamics in the Venice lagoon

Characterizing the dynamics of suspended sediment is crucial when investigating the long-term evolution of tidal landscapes. Here we apply a widely tested mathematical model which describes the dynamics of cohesive and noncohesive sediments, driven by the combined effect of tidal currents and wind waves, using 1 year long time series of observed water levels and wind data from the Venice lagoon. The spatiotemporal evolution of the computed suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is analyzed on the basis of the \u201cpeak over threshold\u201d theory. Our analysis suggests that events characterized by high SSC can be modeled as a marked Poisson process over most of the lagoon. The interarrival time between two consecutive over threshold events, the intensity of peak excesses, and the duration are found to be exponentially distributed random variables over most of tidal flats. Our study suggests that intensity and duration of over threshold events are temporally correlated, while almost no correlation exists between interarrival times and both durations and intensities. The benthic vegetation colonizing the central southern part of the Venice lagoon is found to exert a crucial role on sediment dynamics: vegetation locally decreases the frequency of significant resuspension events by affecting patiotemporal patterns of SSCs also in adjacent areas. Spatial patterns of the mean interarrival of over threshold SSC events are found to be less heterogeneous than the corresponding patterns of mean interarrivals of over threshold bottom shear stress events because of the role of advection/dispersion processes in mixing suspended sediments within the lagoon. Implications for long-term morphodynamic modeling of tidal environments are discussed

How the selection of training patterns can improve the generalization capability in Radial Basis Neural Networks

It has been shown that the selection of the most similar training patterns to generalize a new sample can improve the generalization capability of Radial Basis Neural Networks. In previous works, authors have proposed a learning method that automatically selects the most appropriate training patterns for the new sample to be predicted. However, the amount of selected patterns or the neighborhood choice around the new sample might influence in the generalization accuracy. In addition, that neighborhood must be established according to the dimensionality of the input patterns. This work handles these aspects and presents an extension of a previous work of the authors in order to take those subjects into account. A real time-series prediction problem has been chosen in order to validate the selective learning method for a n-dimensional problem.Publicad

Lazy learning in radial basis neural networks: A way of achieving more accurate models

Radial Basis Neural Networks have been successfully used in a large number of applications having in its rapid convergence time one of its most important advantages. However, the level of generalization is usually poor and very dependent on the quality of the training data because some of the training patterns can be redundant or irrelevant. In this paper, we present a learning method that automatically selects the training patterns more appropriate to the new sample to be approximated. This training method follows a lazy learning strategy, in the sense that it builds approximations centered around the novel sample. The proposed method has been applied to three different domains an artificial regression problem and two time series prediction problems. Results have been compared to standard training method using the complete training data set and the new method shows better generalization abilities.Publicad

A selective learning method to improve the generalization of multilayer feedforward neural networks.

Multilayer feedforward neural networks with backpropagation algorithm have been used successfully in many applications. However, the level of generalization is heavily dependent on the quality of the training data. That is, some of the training patterns can be redundant or irrelevant. It has been shown that with careful dynamic selection of training patterns, better generalization performance may be obtained. Nevertheless, generalization is carried out independently of the novel patterns to be approximated. In this paper, we present a learning method that automatically selects the training patterns more appropriate to the new sample to be predicted. This training method follows a lazy learning strategy, in the sense that it builds approximations centered around the novel sample. The proposed method has been applied to three different domains: two artificial approximation problems and a real time series prediction problem. Results have been compared to standard backpropagation using the complete training data set and the new method shows better generalization abilities.Publicad

Lazy training of radial basis neural networks

Proceeding of: 16th International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks, ICANN 2006. Athens, Greece, September 10-14, 2006Usually, training data are not evenly distributed in the input space. This makes non-local methods, like Neural Networks, not very accurate in those cases. On the other hand, local methods have the problem of how to know which are the best examples for each test pattern. In this work, we present a way of performing a trade off between local and non-local methods. On one hand a Radial Basis Neural Network is used like learning algorithm, on the other hand a selection of the training patterns is used for each query. Moreover, the RBNN initialization algorithm has been modified in a deterministic way to eliminate any initial condition influence. Finally, the new method has been validated in two time series domains, an artificial and a real world one.This article has been financed by the Spanish founded research MEC project OPLINK::UC3M, Ref: TIN2005-08818-C04-0

Forecasting time series by means of evolutionary algorithms

Proceeding of: 8th International Conference in Parallel Problem Solving from Nature - PPSN VIII , Birmingham, UK, September 18-22, 2004.The time series forecast is a very complex problem, consisting in predicting the behaviour of a data series with only the information of the previous sequence. There is many physical and artificial phenomenon that can be described by time series. The prediction of such phenomenon could be very complex. For instance, in the case of tide forecast, unusually high tides, or sea surges, result from a combination of chaotic climatic elements in conjunction with the more normal, periodic, tidal systems associated with a particular area. Too much variables influence the behaviour of the water level. Our problem is not only to find prediction rules, we also need to discard the noise and select the representative data. Our objective is to generate a set of prediction rules. There are many methods tying to achieve good predictions. In most of the cases this methods look for general rules that are able to predict the whole series. The problem is that usually the time series has local behaviours that dont allow a good level of prediction when using general rules. In this work we present a method for finding local rules able to predict only some zones of the series but achieving better level prediction. This method is based on the evolution of set of rules genetically codified, and following the Michigan approach. For evaluating the proposal, two different domains have been used: an artificial domain widely use in the bibliography (Mackey-Glass series) and a time series corresponding to a natural phenomenon, the water level in Venice Lagoon.Investigation supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology through the TRACER project under contract TIC2002-04498-C05-

Time series forecasting by means of evolutionary algorithms

IEEE International Parallel and Distributed Processing Symposium. Long Beach, CA, 26-30 March 2007Many physical and artificial phenomena can be described by time series. The prediction of such phenomenon could be as complex as interesting. There are many time series forecasting methods, but most of them only look for general rules to predict the whole series. The main problem is that time series usually have local behaviours that don't allow forecasting the time series by general rules. In this paper, a new method for finding local prediction rules is presented. Those local prediction rules can attain a better general prediction accuracy. The method presented in this paper is based on the evolution of a rule system encoded following a Michigan approach. For testing this method, several time series domains have been used: a widely known artificial one, the Mackey-Glass time series, and two real world ones, the Venice Lagon and the sunspot time series