A bi-level programming approach for trip matrix estimation and traffic control problems with stochastic user equilibrium link flows

This paper deals with two mathematically similar problems in transport network analysis: trip matrix estimation and traffic signal optimisation on congested road networks. These two problems are formulated as bi-level programming problems with stochastic user equilibrium assignment as the second-level programming problem. We differentiate two types of solutions in the combined matrix estimation and stochastic user equilibrium assignment problem (or, the combined signal optimisation and stochastic user equilibrium assignment problem): one is the solution to the bi-level programming problem and the other the mutually consistent solution where the two sub-problems in the combined problem are solved simultaneously. In this paper, we shall concentrate on the bi-level programming approach although we shall also consider mutually consistent solutions so as to contrast the two types of solutions. The purpose of the paper is to present a solution algorithm for the two bi-level programming problems and to test the algorithm on several networks

Capacity constrained stochastic static traffic assignment with residual point queues incorporating a proper node model

Static traffic assignment models are still widely applied for strategic transport planning purposes in spite of the fact that such models produce implausible traffic flows that exceed link capacities and predict incorrect congestion locations. There have been numerous attempts in the literature to add capacity constraints to obtain more realistic traffic flows and bottleneck locations, but so far there has not been a satisfactory model formulation. After reviewing the literature, we come to the conclusion that an important piece of the puzzle has been missing so far, namely the inclusion of a proper node model. In this paper we propose a novel path-based static traffic assignment model for finding a stochastic user equilibrium in which we include a first order node model that yields realistic turn capacities, which are then used to determine consistent traffic flows and residual point queues. The route choice part of the model is specified as a variational inequality problem, while the network loading part is formulated as a fixed point problem. Both problems are solved using existing techniques. We illustrate the model using hypothetical examples, and also demonstrate feasibility on large-scale networks

A tutorial on recursive models for analyzing and predicting path choice behavior

The problem at the heart of this tutorial consists in modeling the path choice behavior of network users. This problem has been extensively studied in transportation science, where it is known as the route choice problem. In this literature, individuals' choice of paths are typically predicted using discrete choice models. This article is a tutorial on a specific category of discrete choice models called recursive, and it makes three main contributions: First, for the purpose of assisting future research on route choice, we provide a comprehensive background on the problem, linking it to different fields including inverse optimization and inverse reinforcement learning. Second, we formally introduce the problem and the recursive modeling idea along with an overview of existing models, their properties and applications. Third, we extensively analyze illustrative examples from different angles so that a novice reader can gain intuition on the problem and the advantages provided by recursive models in comparison to path-based ones

Route choice and traffic equilibrium modeling in multi-modal and activity-based networks

Que ce soit pour aller au travail, faire du magasinage ou participer à des activités sociales, la mobilité fait partie intégrante de la vie quotidienne. Nous bénéficions à cet égard d'un nombre grandissant de moyens de transports, ce qui contribue tant à notre qualité de vie qu'au développement économique. Néanmoins, la demande croissante de mobilité, à laquelle s'ajoutent l'expansion urbaine et l'accroissement du parc automobile, a également des répercussions négatives locales et globales, telles que le trafic, les nuisances sonores, et la dégradation de l'environnement. Afin d'atténuer ces effets néfastes, les autorités cherchent à mettre en oeuvre des politiques de gestion de la demande avec le meilleur résultat possible pour la société. Pour ce faire, ces dernières ont besoin d'évaluer l'impact de différentes mesures. Cette perspective est ce qui motive le problème de l'analyse et la prédiction du comportement des usagers du système de transport, et plus précisément quand, comment et par quel itinéraire les individus décident de se déplacer. Cette thèse a pour but de développer et d'appliquer des modèles permettant de prédire les flux de personnes et/ou de véhicules dans des réseaux urbains comportant plusieurs modes de transport. Il importe que de tels modèles soient supportés par des données, génèrent des prédictions exactes, et soient applicables à des réseaux réels. Dans la pratique, le problème de prédiction de flux se résout en deux étapes. La première, l'analyse de choix d'itinéraire, a pour but d'identifier le chemin que prendrait un voyageur dans un réseau pour effectuer un trajet entre un point A et un point B. Pour ce faire, on estime à partir de données les paramètres d'une fonction de coût multi-attribut représentant le comportement des usagers du réseau. La seconde étape est celle de l'affectation de trafic, qui distribue la demande totale dans le réseau de façon à obtenir un équilibre, c.-à-d. un état dans lequel aucun utilisateur ne souhaite changer d'itinéraire. La difficulté de cette étape consiste à modéliser la congestion du réseau, qui dépend du choix de route de tous les voyageurs et affecte simultanément la fonction de coût de chacun. Cette thèse se compose de quatre articles soumis à des journaux internationaux et d'un chapitre additionnel. Dans tous les articles, nous modélisons le choix d'itinéraire d'un individu comme une séquence de choix d'arcs dans le réseau, selon une approche appelée modèle de choix d'itinéraire récursif. Cette méthodologie possède d'avantageuses propriétés, comme un estimateur non biaisé et des procédures d'affectation rapides, en évitant de générer des ensembles de chemins. Néanmoins, l'estimation de tels modèles pose une difficulté additionnelle puisqu'elle nécessite de résoudre un problème de programmation dynamique imbriqué, ce qui explique que cette approche ne soit pas encore largement utilisée dans le domaine de la recherche en transport. Or, l'objectif principal de cette thèse est de répondre des défis liés à l'application de cette méthodologie à des réseaux multi-modaux. La force de cette thèse consiste en des applications à échelle réelle qui soulèvent des défis computationnels, ainsi que des contributions méthodologiques. Le premier article est un tutoriel sur l'analyse de choix d'itinéraire à travers les modèles récursifs susmentionnés. Les contributions principales sont de familiariser les chercheur.e.s avec cette méthodologie, de donner une certaine intuition sur les propriétés du modèle, d'illustrer ses avantages sur de petits réseaux, et finalement de placer ce problème dans un contexte plus large en tissant des liens avec des travaux dans les domaines de l'optimisation inverse et de l'apprentissage automatique. Deux articles et un chapitre additionnel appartiennent à la catégorie de travaux appliquant la méthodologie précédemment décrite sur des réseaux réels, de grande taille et multi-modaux. Ces applications vont au-delà des précédentes études dans ce contexte, qui ont été menées sur des réseaux routiers simples. Premièrement, nous estimons des modèles de choix d'itinéraire récursifs pour les trajets de cyclistes, et nous soulignons certains avantages de cette méthodologie dans le cadre de la prédiction. Nous étendons ensuite ce premier travail afin de traiter le cas d'un réseau de transport public comportant plusieurs modes. Enfin, nous considérons un problème de prédiction de demande plus large, où l'on cherche à prédire simultanément l'enchaînement des trajets quotidiens des voyageurs et leur participation aux activités qui motivent ces déplacements. Finalement, l'article concluant cette thèse concerne la modélisation d'affectation de trafic. Plus précisément, nous nous intéressons au calcul d'un équilibre dans un réseau où chaque arc peut posséder une capacité finie, ce qui est typiquement le cas des réseaux de transport public. Cet article apporte d'importantes contributions méthodologiques. Nous proposons un modèle markovien d'équilibre de trafic dit stratégique, qui permet d'affecter la demande sur les arcs du réseau sans en excéder la capacité, tout en modélisant comment la probabilité qu'un arc atteigne sa capacité modifie le choix de route des usagers.Traveling is an essential part of daily life, whether to attend work, perform social activities, or go shopping among others. We benefit from an increasing range of available transportation services to choose from, which supports economic growth and contributes to our quality of life. Yet the growing demand for travel, combined with urban sprawl and increasing vehicle ownership rates, is also responsible for major local and global externalities, such as degradation of the environment, congestion and noise. In order to mitigate the negative impacts of traveling while weighting benefits to users, transportation planners seek to design policies and improve infrastructure with the best possible outcome for society as a whole. Taking effective actions requires to evaluate the impact of various measures, which necessitates first to understand and predict travel behavior, i.e., how, when and by which route individuals decide to travel. With this background in mind, this thesis has the objective of developing and applying models to predict flows of persons and/or vehicles in multi-modal transportation networks. It is desirable that such models be data-driven, produce accurate predictions, and be applicable to real networks. In practice, the problem of flow prediction is addressed in two separate steps, and this thesis is concerned with both. The first, route choice analysis, is the problem of identifying the path a traveler would take in a network. This is achieved by estimating from data a parametrized cost function representing travelers' behavior. The second step, namely traffic assignment, aims at distributing all travelers on the network's paths in order to find an equilibrium state, such that no traveler has an interest in changing itinerary. The challenge lies in taking into account the effect of generated congestion, which depends on travelers' route choices while simultaneously impacting their cost of traveling. This thesis is composed of four articles submitted to international journals and an additional chapter. In all the articles of the thesis, we model an individual's choice of path as a sequence of link choices, using so-called recursive route choice models. This methodology is a state-of-the-art framework which is known to possess the advantage of unbiased parameter estimates and fast assignment procedures, by avoiding to generate choice sets of paths. However, it poses the additional challenge of requiring one to solve embedded dynamic programming problems, and is hence not widely used in the transportation community. This thesis addresses practical and theoretical challenges related to applying this methodological framework to real multi-modal networks. The strength of this thesis consists in large-scale applications which bear computational challenges, as well as some methodological contributions to this modeling framework. The first article in this thesis is a tutorial on predicting and analyzing path choice behavior using recursive route choice models. The contribution of this article is to familiarize researchers with this methodology, to give intuition on the model properties, to illustrate its advantages through examples, and finally to position this modeling framework within a broader context, by establishing links with recently published work in the inverse optimization and machine learning fields. Two articles and an additional chapter can be categorized as applications of the methodology to estimate parameters of travel demand models in several large, real, and/or multi-dimensional networks. These applications go beyond previous studies on small physical road networks. First, we estimate recursive models for the route choice of cyclists and we demonstrate some advantages of the recursive models in the context of prediction. We also provide an application to a time-expanded public transportation networks with several modes. Then, we consider a broader travel demand problem, in which decisions regarding daily trips and participation in activities are made jointly. The latter is also modeled with recursive route choice models by considering sequences of activity, destination and mode choices as paths in a so-called supernetwork. Finally, the subject of the last article in this thesis is traffic assignment. More precisely, we address the problem of computing a traffic equilibrium in networks with strictly limited link capacities, such as public transport networks. This article provides important methodological contributions. We propose a strategic Markovian traffic equilibrium model which assigns flows to networks without exceeding link capacities while realistically modeling how the risk of not being able to access an arc affects route choice behavior

A Multi-mode, Multi-class Dynamic Network Model With Queues For Advanced Transportation Information Systems

In this paper we propose a composite Variational Inequality formulation for modeling multimode, multi-class stochastic dynamic user equilibrium problem in recurrent congestion networks with queues. The modes typically refer to different vehicle types such as passenger cars, trucks, and buses sharing the same road space. Each vehicle type has its own characteristics, such as free flow speed, vehicle size. We extend single mode deterministic point model to multimode deterministic point model for modeling the asymmetric interactions among various modes. Meanwhile, each mode of travelers is classified into two classes. Class 1 is equipped travelers following stochastic dynamic user-equilibrium with less uncertainty of travel cost, class 2 is unequipped travelers following stochastic dynamic user-equilibrium with more uncertainty of travel cost. A solution algorithm based on stochastic dynamic network loading for logit-based simultaneous route and departure time choices is adopted. Finally a numerical example is presented in a simple network

A unified framework for traffic assignment: deriving static and quasi‐dynamic models consistent with general first order dynamic traffic assignment models

This paper presents a theoretical framework to derive static, quasi-dynamic, and semi-dynamic traffic assignment models from a general first order dynamic traffic assignment model. By explicit derivation from a dynamic model, the resulting models maintain maximum consistency with dynamic models. Further, the derivations can be done with any fundamental diagram, any turn flow restrictions, and deterministic or stochastic route choice. We demonstrate the framework by deriving static (quasidynamic) models that explicitly take queuing and spillback into account. These models are generalisations of models previously proposed in the literature. We further discuss all assumptions usually implicitly made in the traditional static traffic assignment model

An intersection-movement-based stochastic dynamic user optimal route choice model for assessing network performance

Different from traditional methods, this paper formulates the logit-based stochastic dynamic user optimal (SDUO) route choice problem as a fixed point (FP) problem in terms of intersection movement choice probabilities, which contain travelers’ route information so that the realistic effects of physical queues can be captured in the formulation when a physical-queue traffic flow model is adopted, and that route enumeration and column generation heuristics can be avoided in the solution procedure when efficient path sets are used. The choice probability can be either destination specific or origin–destination specific, resulting into two formulations. To capture the effect of physical queues in these FP formulations, the link transmission model is modified for the network loading and travel time determination. The self-regulated averaging method (SRAM) was adopted to solve the FP formulations. Numerical examples were developed to illustrate the properties of the problem and the effectiveness of the solution method. The proposed models were further used to evaluate the effect of information quality and road network improvement on the network performance in terms of total system travel time (TSTT) and the cost of total vehicle emissions (CTVE). Numerical results show that providing better information quality, enhancing link outflow capacity, or constructing a new road can lead to poor network performance.postprin

Road network maintenance and repair considering day-to-day traffic dynamics and transient congestion

Road maintenance and repair (M&R) are essential for keeping the performance of traffic infrastructure at a satisfactory level, and extending their lifetime to the fullest extent possible. For road networks, effective M&R plans should not be constructed in a myopic or ad-hoc fashion regardless of the subsequent benefits and costs associated with those projects considered. A hallmark of road M&R studies is the use of user equilibrium (UE) models to predict network traffic for a given set of road conditions with or without M&R. However, UE approaches ignore the traffic disequilibrium states and transient congestion as a result of M&R derived disruptions to network traffic on a day-to-day (DTD) time scale, which could produce additional substantial travel costs. As shown in the numerical studies on a M&R plan of the Sioux Falls network, the additional maintenance derived travel cost is about 4 billion, which is far exceed the actual M&R construction cost of 0.2 billion. Therefore, it is necessary to recognise the substantial social costs induced by maintenance-derived disruptions in the form of transient congestion when planning M&R. This realistic and pressing issue is not properly addressed by the road M&R planning problems with traffic equilibrium constraints. This thesis proposes a dual-time-scale road network M&R model aiming to simultaneously capture the long-term effects of M&R activities under traffic equilibria, and the maintenance-derived transient congestion using day-to-day (DTD) traffic evolutionary dynamics. The notion of ‘day’ is arbitrarily defined (e.g. weeks or months). The proposed M&R model consists of three sub-models: (1) a within-day dynamic network loading (DNL) model; (2) a day-to-day dynamic traffic assignment (DTD DTA) model; and (3) a day-to-day road quality model. The within-day traffic dynamics is captured by the Lighthill-Whitham-Richards (LWR) fluid dynamic network loading model. The day-to-day phase of the traffic dynamics specify travellers’ route and departure time choices in a stochastic manner based on a sequential mixed multinomial or nested Logit model. Travel information sharing behaviour is further integrated into this macroscopic doubly dynamic (both within-day and day-to-day dynamic) traffic assignment (DDTA) model to account for the impact of incomplete information on travel experiences. A deterministic day-to-day road quality model based on an exponential form of traffic flow is employed to govern the road deterioration process, where a quarter-car index (QI) is applied. All these dynamics are incorporated in a holistic dual-time-scale M&R model, which captures realistic phenomena associated with short-term and long-term effects of M&R, including physical queuing and spillback, road capacity reduction, temporal-spatial shift of congestion due to on-going M&R activities, and the tendency to converge to an equilibrium after M&R actions. Following the dual-time-scale road network M&R model, a bi-level road M&R optimisation model is proposed, where the aforementioned three sub-models are incorporated into the lower-level problem, while the upper-level is to minimise M&R expenditure and network travel costs while maintaining a satisfactory level of road quality. The M&R planning horizon is long yet finite (e.g. years or decades). A ‘quality-usage’ feedback mechanism is investigated in the proposed bi-level M&R model, namely, (1) the DTD road quality evolution as a result of DTD traffic loads and the M&R effectiveness; and (2) the evolution of DTD traffic in response to both DTD road deterioration and the improved road quality after M&R activities. The effectiveness of developed M&R optimisation model is demonstrated through case studies on the Sioux Falls network. A metaheuristic Genetic Algorithm (GA) approach is employed to solve the M&R problems given its highly nonlinear, nonconvex and non-differentiable nature. Explicit travellers’ choice behaviour dynamics and complex traffic phenomena such as network paradoxes arising from M&R activities are illustrated. Through a comparison with the results under the dynamic user equilibrium (DUE) method, the proposed DTD method achieves significant reduction in network travel cost of $ 25 million, approximately 20% of the total cost. This points to the benefit of using the DTD dynamics for capturing network’s responses to M&R in a more realistic way. The M&R model proposed in this thesis could provide valuable managerial insights for road M&R planning agencies.Open Acces

Requirements for traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning: A critical assessment

Transport planning models are used all over the world to assist in the decision making regarding investments in infrastructure and transport services. Traffic assignment is one of the key components of transport models, which relate travel demand to infrastructure supply, by simulating (future) route choices and network conditions, resulting in traffic flows, congestion, travel times, and emissions. Cost benefit analyses rely on outcomes of such models, and since very large monetary investments are at stake, these outcomes should be as accurate and reliable as possible. However, the vast majority of strategic transport models still use traditional static traffic assignment procedures with travel time functions in which traffic flow can exceed capacity, delays are predicted in the wrong locations, and intersections are not properly handled. On the other hand, microscopic dynamic traffic simulation models can simulate traffic very realistically, but are not able to deal with very large networks and may not have the capability of providing robust results for scenario analysis. In this paper we discuss and identify the important characteristics of traffic assignment models for transport planning. We propose a modelling framework in which the traffic assignment model exhibits a good balance between traffic flow realism, robustness, consistency, accountability, and ease of use. Furthermore, case studies on several large networks of Dutch and Australian cities will be presented