A Theory of Market Pioneers, Dynamic Capabilities and Industry Evolution *

Abstract We analyze a model of industry evolution where the number of active submarkets is endogenously determined by pioneering innovation from incumbents and entrants. Incumbent pioneers enjoy an advantage at additional pioneering innovation via a dynamic capability, which takes the form of an improved technology for innovation in young submarkets. Entrants are motivated in part by a desire to acquire the dynamic capability. We show that dynamic capabilities increase total innovation, but whether the capability confers an advantage in terms of marginal or average cost is important in determining how the impact of dynamic capabilities is distributed across incumbent and entrant innovation rates. We complement the existing literature -that focuses on exogenous arrival of submarkets or the steady state of a model with constant submarkets -by describing how competition, free entry, and the dynamic capability of incumbents drives the evolution of an industry. The shift from immature to mature submarkets can lead to a shakeout in rm numbers, and eventually leads to a reduction in total dynamic capabilities in an industry. * We thank three anonymous referees and Editor Bruno Cassiman, as well as participants at many conferences and seminars, for useful comments and suggestions. † Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto. ‡ Stanford GSB

Technological Discontinuities and the Comparative Strategic Value of New Capabilites: Evidence from the Comparison of Small- and Large-Molecule Targeted Anti-Cancer Drug Discovery

Traditional creative destruction theories distinguish disruptions as competence-destroying or competence-enhancing to incumbents’ capabilities, with the former case resulting in incumbents’ loss of competitive advantage in in-house R&D performance (even if complementary assets aid in retaining final market share). In this paper, I propose that attention to the extent of competence destruction is necessary but not sufficient for analyses of competitive advantage in R&D through a technological discontinuity. A full analysis requires the comparison of the value added and ease of access (i.e., strategic value) of all capabilities, old and new. In other words, an analysis of competition during a transition requires assessment not only of how many of the old capabilities were lost but also what it takes to acquire the new ones. I find evidence for this proposition in qualitative and quantitative data from the transition of anti-cancer drug discovery from standard chemotherapy to targeted therapies. Among targeted therapies, I compare two variants, small- vs. large-molecule drugs, which though equally competence-destroying to chemotherapy-based drug discovery, differ in that large-molecule drugs require one more new capability: expertise in biopharmaceutical technology. By tracing the origin and evolution of biopharmaceutical technology, as well as its comparative value added, I can show a contrast in results: incumbents led in small-molecule targeted drug discovery; but they fell behind biopharmaceutical technology pioneers in large-molecule targeted drug discovery, where one of the new capabilities (i.e., expertise in biopharmaceutical technology) had higher value added and was more difficult to acquire than other new capabilities.R&D capabilities; incumbents; technological disruption; competence enhancing

First come, first served: an analysis of pioneer and follower firms' market and nonmarket actions in the European mobile telephone industry

This study examines the relationship between erosion of the first-mover's market share and the differences in competitive behaviour of pioneer firms and followers. Particularly, we pay particular attention to market actions related to innovation, pricing and promotion, and to non-market actions related to judicial issues. The empirical study has been carried out with companies that are present in a dynamic context, such as the European mobile telephone industry. Our results show that when followers take more non-market actions than pioneers the negative effect on the firstentrant's advantage is more significant. On the contrary, we have not found a significant impact of innovating and pricing actions

Co-evolution of firms, industries and networks in space

The cluster literature suffers from a number of shortcomings: (1) by and large, cluster studies do not take into account that firms in a cluster are heterogeneous in terms of capabilities; (2) cluster studies tend to overemphasize the importance of place and geographical proximity and underestimate the role of networks which are, by definition, a-spatial entities; (3) most, if not all cluster studies have a static nature, and do not address questions like the origins and evolution of clusters. Our aim is to overcome these shortcomings and propose a theoretical framework on the evolution of clusters. Bringing together bodies of literature on clusters, industrial dynamics, the evolutionary theory of the firm and network theory, we describe how clusters co-evolve with: (1) the industry they adhere to; (2) the (dynamic) capabilities of the firms they contain; and (3) the industry-wide knowledge network they are part of. Based on this framework, we believe the analysis of cluster evolution provides a promising research agenda in evolutionary economic geography for the years to come.cluster evolution, network dynamics, industrial dynamics, co-evolution, evolutionary economic geography

Theoretical and Empirical Evidence of Timing-to-Market and Lead Market Strategies for Successful Environmental Innovation

In environmental policy first mover advantages for environmental technologies are often taken for granted. It is a popular view to see the state as a political entrepreneur who introduces a certain environmental policy instrument, e.g. feedin tariffs for renewable energies, and thus becomes the world market leader or the lead market for the respective technology. Against this background, this paper wants to find out if the idea of first mover advantages can be justified by theories and empirical evidence from industrial organization and business management studies. After a review of theoretical and empirical papers we see that first mover advantages are not confirmed by empirical evidence. Thereby the successful innovator is not necessarily the first but very often one of the early movers within the competition of different innovation designs. We show that the success of a timing strategy depends on country-specific lead market potentials, on market and technology characteristics and on the regime of the country-specific regulation. On this basis we derive options for environmental innovation strategies for firms under different circumstances of markets, technologies and regulations. We will see different implications for practical innovation management and innovation policy.Lead markets, environmental innovation, first mover advantages,innovation strategies

FIRST COME, FIRST SERVED: AN ANALYSIS OF PIONEER AND FOLLOWER FIRMS' MARKET AND NONMARKET ACTIONS IN THE EUROPEAN MOBILE TELEPHONE INDUSTRY

This study examines the relationship between erosion of the first-mover’s market share and the differences in competitive behaviour of pioneer firms and followers. Particularly, we pay particular attention to market actions related to innovation, pricing and promotion, and to non-market actions related to judicial issues. The empirical study has been carried out with companies that are present in a dynamic context, such as the European mobile telephone industry. Our results show that when followers take more non-market actions than pioneers the negative effect on the firstentrant’s advantage is more significant. On the contrary, we have not found a significant impact of innovating and pricing actions.

Product strategies and survival in schumpeterian environments: evidence from the US security software industry.

This paper seeks to explore the drivers of survival in environments characterized by high rates of entry and exit, fragmented market shares, rapid pace of product innovation and proliferation of young ventures. The paper aims to underscore the role played by postentry product strategies, along with their interaction, after carefully controlling for "at entry" factors and demographic conditions. Based on a population of 270 firms that entered the US security software industry between 1989 and 1998, we find evidence that surviving entities are those that are more aggressive in the adoption of versioning and portfolio broadening strategies. In particular, focusing on any one of these two strategies leads to a higher probability of survival as opposed to adopting a mixed strategy.Survival; Versioning; Portfolio broadening; Young ventures; Sotware;

Japan and Japanese firms: historical and modern lessons for international business and economic development

The obsession in both the popular and academic press about Japan, Japanese firms and their management practices lasted until the 1990s, after which there has been an inexplicable absence of curiosity. I argue here that there is still much to learn, not only from their contemporary activity, but from their historical actions. Less developed countries, in particular, can benefit from a careful study of the Meiji era, during which Japan built up the structure, institutions and organizations that underlay its economic success for much of the 20th century, and was a blueprint for many Asian success stories. The Meiji period was crucial in building up of Japan’s location advantages, and the rapidity of the reforms in this period underlined much of its subsequent growth. I also argue that despite Japan’s economic stagnation since the 1990s, its firms have not been stationary. There has been considerable evolution in the management and structure of Japanese firms and its innovation system. Such developments represent a useful preview of challenges ahead for the more advanced emerging economies such as China and India, as well as newer advanced economies, such as Korea

The Role of Industry Dynamics in the Persistence of First Mover Advantages

We advance first mover advantages literature by adding novel insights into the conditions that affect the persistence of first mover profitability and market share. We investigate the role of two industry dynamics — market growth and technological discontinuity — and we argue that they will negatively affect the persistence of first mover performance. We test our hypotheses in the context of the European mobile communications industry, by estimating System GMM models on a longitudinal panel of 65 companies in 19 markets, over the period 1998–2008. Model estimations confirm that industry dynamics affect the persistence of first mover advantages. For instance, we find robust empirical evidence that technological discontinuity is detrimental to both first movers’ market share and profitability

Evolution of Technological Capabilities: A study of Indian products based Telecom start-up firms

New technology based start-ups play a very important role in developing the economy of a country. However, product based B2B start-ups in India are rare and existing ones have to undergo several challenges in commercializing. Present study explores the evolution of technological capabilities that enable commercialization among such early stage start-ups by adopting a multiple case based (four independent start-ups) inductive methodology with Indian telecom start-ups as the context. We have identified architectural design, algorithmic implementation and product adaptation as components of technological capability of such start-ups. We explore the link between knowledge acquisition, telecom specific knowledge and capability evolution in present work in a regulated and knowledge intensive context. Finally, we put forth a three stage framework mapping the evolution of technological capabilities among telecom start-ups, as well as identify regulatory bodies, standard making bodies and social network as facilitators in the capability evolution process.