Debris-covered glacier systems and associated glacial lake outburst flood hazards:Challenges and prospects

Glaciers respond sensitively to climate variability and change, with associated impacts on meltwater production, sea-level rise and geomorphological hazards. There is a strong societal interest in understanding the current response of all types of glacier systems to climate change and how they will continue to evolve in the context of the whole glacierized landscape. In particular, understanding the current and future behaviour of debris-covered glaciers is a 'hot topic' in glaciological research because of concerns for water resources and glacier-related hazards. The state of these glaciers is closely related to various hazardous geomorphological processes which are relatively poorly understood. Understanding the implications of debris-covered glacier evolution requires a systems approach. This includes the interplay of various factors such as local geomorphology, ice ablation patterns, debris characteristics and glacier lake growth and development. Such a broader, contextualized understanding is prerequisite to identifying and monitoring the geohazards and hydrologic implications associated with changes in the debris-covered glacier system under future climate scenarios. This paper presents a comprehensive review of current knowledge of the debris-covered glacier landsystem. Specifically, we review state-of-the-art field-based and the remote sensing-based methods for monitoring debris-covered glacier characteristics and lakes and their evolution under future climate change. We advocate a holistic process-based framework for assessing hazards associated with moraine-dammed glacio-terminal lakes that are a projected end-member state for many debris-covered glaciers under a warming climat

Quantification and Change Assessment Benjamin Aubrey Robson 2016 Dissertation date: 31st October 2016 of Debris-Covered Glaciers using Remote Sensing

This thesis investigates how remote sensing data can be used to assess the changing state of debris-covered ice. The principal study areas are the Manaslu Region in Nepal (papers I and III) and the Hohe Tauern National Park, Austria (paper II). Clean glacier ice is straightforward to semi-automatically classify using multi-spectral satellite imagery owing to the strong spectral signature of clean ice in the visible and near-infrared sections of the electromagnetic spectrum. Since the ablation zones of clean ice glaciers are at the pressure melting point, a change in terminus position or glacier area can be directly linked to a change in climate. Debris-covered ice is however more complicated to map and to interpret temporal change. Supraglacial debris is spectrally indistinguishable from the surrounding paraglacial terrain, and requires auxiliary data such as a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), thermal band data, or flow data. Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA) provides a framework for combining multiple datasets in one analysis, while additionally allowing shape, contextual, hierarchical and textural criteria to be used to classify imagery. Paper I combines optical (Landsat-8), topographic (void-filled SRTM) and SAR coherence (ALOS PALSAR) data within an OBIA workflow to semi-automatically classify both clean ice and debris-covered ice in the challenging area surrounding Mount Manaslu in Nepal. When compared with manually delineated outlines, the classification achieved an accuracy of 91% (93% for clean ice and 83% for debriscovered ice). The classification was affected by seasonal snow and shadows while the debris-covered ice mapping was influenced by the datasets being temporally inconsistent, and the mountainous topography causing inconsistencies in the SAR coherence data. The method compares well with other automated techniques for classifying debris-covered ice, but has two additional advantages: firstly, that SAR coherence data can distinguish active ice from stagnant ice based on whether motion or significant downwasting has occured, and secondly, that the method is applicable over a large study area using just space-borne data. Paper II explores the potential of using high-resolution (10 m) topographic data and an edge detection algorithm to morphologically map the extent of debris-covered ice. The method was applied in the Hohe Tauern National Park, Austria, using a 10 m DEM derived from airborne Light Detection and Radar (LiDAR) acquisitions. Additionally, the end-of-summer transient snowline (TSL) was also mapped, which approximates the annual Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA). Our classification was applied on three Landsat satellite images from 1985, 2003 and 2013 and compared the results to the Austrian Glacier Inventories from 1969 and 1998 to derive decadal-scale glacial changes. A mean rate of glacier area reduction of 1.4 km2a-1 was calculated between 1969 and 2013 with a total reduction in area of 33%. The TSL rose by 92 m between 1985 and 2013 to an altitude of 3005 m. By comparing our results with manually delineated outlines an accuracy of 97.5% was determined. When a confusion matrix was calculated it could be seen that the results contained few false positives but some false negatives which were attributed to seasonal snow, shadows and misclassified debris. Our results correspond broadly with those found in other areas of the European Alps although a heterogeneity in glacier change is observable. We recommend that future glacier mapping investigations should utilise a combination of both SAR coherence data and high-resolution topographic data in order to delineate the extent of both active and stagnant glacier ice. Paper III investigates decadal scale changes in glacier area, velocity and volume in the previously undocumented Manaslu Region, Nepal. Between 2001 and 2013 the glacier area reduced by 8.2% (-0.68% a-1). Simultaneously, the glaciers lowered by -0.21 ± 0.08 m a-1 and had a slightly negative specific mass balance of -0.05 ± 016 m w.e a-1 although mass balances ranged -2.49 ± 2.24 to +0.27 ± 0.30 m w.e a-1 throughout the region. The geodetic mass balance for select glaciers covered by a Corona DEM between 1970 and 2013 was -0.24 ± 0.12 m w.e a-1 which became more negative (-0.51 ± 0.12 m w.e. a-1) between 2005 and 2013. Rates of surface lowering over debriscovered ice increasing by 168% between 1970 – 2000 (0.40 ± 0.18 m a-1) and 2005 – 2013 (1.07 ±0.48 m a-1). The rate of glacier melt varies due to presumed increases in debris thickness at the upper and lower boundaries of the ablation zone, while an area of enhanced glacier downwasting corresponds to the presence of supraglacial lakes and exposed ice. The glacier velocity varies across the region. Many glaciers have stagnant sections towards the glacier termini, and a trend of ongoing stagnation is observable. No relationship exists between trends in glacier area and glacier volume or velocity, although a weak relationship exists between trends in the changes of volume and velocity. The rates of glacier area and velocity change appear to be similar, although the number of glaciers that had records of area, velocity, and volume was few. Our results are comparable to studies looking at mean surface lowerings and geodetic mass balances in other areas of the Himalayas, and point towards heterogeneous yet pronounced mass losses across the Himalaya region

GlacierNet2: A Hybrid Multi-Model Learning Architecture for Alpine Glacier Mapping

In recent decades, climate change has significantly affected glacier dynamics, resulting in mass loss and an increased risk of glacier-related hazards including supraglacial and proglacial lake development, as well as catastrophic outburst flooding. Rapidly changing conditions dictate the need for continuous and detailed observations and analysis of climate-glacier dynamics. Thematic and quantitative information regarding glacier geometry is fundamental for understanding climate forcing and the sensitivity of glaciers to climate change, however, accurately mapping debris-cover glaciers (DCGs) is notoriously difficult based upon the use of spectral information and conventional machine-learning techniques. The objective of this research is to improve upon an earlier proposed deep-learning-based approach, GlacierNet, which was developed to exploit a convolutional neural-network segmentation model to accurately outline regional DCG ablation zones. Specifically, we developed an enhanced GlacierNet2 architecture thatincorporates multiple models, automatic post-processing, and basin-level hydrological flow techniques to improve the mapping of DCGs such that it includes both the ablation and accumulation zones. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that GlacierNet2 improves the estimation of the ablation zone and allows a high level of intersection over union (IOU: 0.8839) score. The proposed architecture provides complete glacier (both accumulation and ablation zone) outlines at regional scales, with an overall IOU score of 0.8619. This is a crucial first step in automating complete glacier mapping that can be used for accurate glacier modeling or mass-balance analysis

Modeling potential glacial lake outburst flood process chains and effects from artificial lake‐level lowering at Gepang Gath lake, Indian Himalaya

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a severe threat to communities in the Himalayas; however, GLOF mitigation strategies have been implemented for only a few lakes, and future changes in hazard are rarely considered. Here, we present a comprehensive assessment of current and future GLOF hazard for Gepang Gath Lake, Western Himalaya, considering rock and/or ice avalanches cascading into the lake. We consider ground surface temperature and topography to define avalanche source zones located in areas of potentially degrading permafrost. GLOF process chains in current and future scenarios, also considering engineered lake lowering of 10 and 30 m, were evaluated. Here, varied avalanche impact waves, erosion patterns, debris flow hydraulics, and GLOF impacts at Sissu village, under 18 different scenarios were assessed. Authors demonstrated that a larger future lake does not necessarily produce larger GLOF events in Sissu, depending, among other factors, on the location from where the triggering avalanche initiates and strikes the lake. For the largest scenarios, 10 m of lowering reduces the high-intensity zone by 54% and 63% for the current and future scenarios, respectively, but has little effect on the medium-intensity flood zone. Even with 30 m of lake lowering, the Sissu helipad falls in the high-intensity zone under all moderate-to-large scenarios, with severe implications for evacuations and other emergency response actions. The approach can be extended to other glacial lakes to demonstrate the efficiency of lake lowering as an option for GLOF mitigation and enable a robust GLOF hazard and risk assessment

Recent Evolution of Glaciers in the Manaslu Region of Nepal From Satellite Imagery and UAV Data (1970–2019)

Glacierized mountain ranges such as the Himalaya comprise a variety of glacier types, including clean and debris-covered glaciers. Monitoring their behaviour over time requires an assessment of changes in area and elevation along with surface features and geomorphology. In this paper we quantify the surface evolution of glacier systems in the Manaslu region of Nepal over the last five decades using 2013/2019 multi-sensor imagery and elevation data constructed from 1970 declassified Corona imagery and 1970 declassified Corona imagery. We investigate area changes, glacier thickness, geodetic glacier mass balance and surface velocity changes at regional scales and focus on the Ponkar Glacier and Thulagi Glacier and Lake for an in-depth assessment of surface geomorphology and surface feature dynamics (ponds, vegetation and ice cliffs). The time series of surface elevation changes for the lower ablation area of Ponkar Glacier is extended using 2019 UAV-based imagery and field-based ablation rates measured over the period 2016–2019. Glaciers in the Manaslu region experienced a mean area loss of −0.26 ± 0.0001% a−1 between 1970 and 2019. The mean surface lowering was −0.20 ± 0.02 ma−1 over the period 1970 to 2013, corresponding to a regional geodetic mass balance of −0.17 ± 0.03 m w. e.a−1. Overall, debris-covered glaciers had slightly higher thinning rates compared to clean ice glaciers; lake-terminating glaciers had double thinning rates compared to land-terminating glaciers. Individual glacier mass balance was negatively controlled by glacier slope and mean glacier elevation. During the period 1970 to 2013, Ponkar Glacier had a geodetic mass balance of −0.06 ± 0.01 m w. e.a−1, inversely correlated with parts of the central trunk thickening. Between 2013 and 2019 there was a nine-fold increase in the thinning rates over the lower parts of the glacier tongue relative to the period 1970–2013. Ice-surface morphology changes between 1970 and 2019 on Ponkar Glacier include a decrease in ogives and open crevasses, an increase in ice cliffs and ponds and the expansion of the supraglacial debris and ice-surface vegetation. These changes point to reduced ice-dynamic activity and are commensurate with the observed recession and negative glacier mass balance over the last five decades.publishedVersio