Methodology for development of drought Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) Curves

Drought monitoring and early warning are essential elements impacting drought sensitive sectors such as primary production, industrial and consumptive water users. A quantitative estimate of the probability of occurrence and the anticipated severity of drought is crucial for the development of mitigating strategies. The overall aim of this study is to develop a methodology to assess drought frequency and severity and to advance the understanding of monitoring and predicting droughts in the future. Seventy (70) meteorological stations across Victoria, Australia were selected for analysis. To achieve the above objective, the analysis was initially carried out to select the most applicable meteorological drought index for Victoria. This is important because to date, no drought indices are applied across Australia by any Commonwealth agency quantifying drought impacts. An evaluation of existing meteorological drought indices namely, the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Deciles was first conducted to assess their suitability for the determination of drought conditions. The use of the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) was shown to be satisfactory for assessing and monitoring meteorological droughts in Australia. When applied to data, SPI was also successful in detecting the onset and the end of historical droughts. Temporal changes in historic rainfall variability and the trend of SPI were investigated using non-parametric trend techniques to detect wet and dry periods across Victoria, Australia. The first part of the analysis was carried out to determine annual rainfall trends using Mann Kendall (MK) and Sen’s slope tests at five selected meteorological stations with long historical records (more than 100 years), as well as a short sub-set period (1949-2011) of the same data set. It was found that different trend results were obtained for the sub-set. For SPI trend analysis, it was observed that, although different results were obtained showing significant trends, SPI gave a trend direction similar to annual precipitation (downward and upward trends). In addition, temporal trends in the rate of occurrence of drought events (i.e. inter-arrival times) were examined. The fact that most of the stations showed negative slopes indicated that the intervals between events were becoming shorter and the frequency of events was temporally increasing. Based on the results obtained from the preliminary analysis, the trend analyses were then carried out for the remaining 65 stations. The main conclusions from these analyses are summarized as follows; 1) the trend analysis was observed to be highly dependent on the start and end dates of analysis. It is recommended that in the selection of time period for the drought, trend analysis should consider the length xvi of available data sets. Longer data series would give more meaningful results, thus improving the understanding of droughts impacted by climate change. 2) From the SPI and inter-arrival drought trends, it was observed that some of the study areas in Victoria will face more frequent dry period leading to increased drought occurrence. Information similar to this would be very important to develop suitable strategies to mitigate the impacts of future droughts. The main objective of this study was the development of a methodology to assess drought risk for each region based on a frequency analysis of the drought severity series using the SPI index calculated over a 12-month duration. A novel concept centric on drought severity-duration-frequency (SDF) curves was successfully derived for all the 70 stations using an innovative threshold approach. The methodology derived using extreme value analysis will assist in the characterization of droughts and provide useful information to policy makers and agencies developing drought response plans. Using regionalisation techniques such as Cluster analysis and modified Andrews curve, the study area was separated into homogenous groups based on rainfall characteristics. In the current Victorian application the study area was separated into six homogeneous clusters with unique signatures. A set of mean SDF curves was developed for each cluster to identify the frequency and severity of the risk of drought events for various return periods in each cluster. The advantage of developing a mean SDF curve (as a signature) for each cluster is that it assists the understanding of drought conditions for an ungauged or unknown station, the characteristics of which fit existing cluster groups. Non-homogeneous Markov Chain modelling was used to estimate the probability of different drought severity classes and drought severity class predictions 1, 2 and 3 months ahead. The non-homogeneous formulation, which considers the seasonality of precipitation, is useful for understanding the evolution of drought events and for short-term planning. Overall, this model predicted drought situations 1 month ahead well. However, predictions 2 and 3 months ahead should be used with caution. Many parts of Australia including Victoria have experienced their worst droughts on record over the last decade. With the threat of climate change potentially further exacerbating droughts in the years ahead, a clear understanding of the impact of droughts is vital. The information on the probability of occurrence and the anticipated severity of drought will be helpful for water resources managers, infrastructure planners and government policy-makers with future infrastructure planning and with the design and building of more resilient communities

The influence of heavy goods vehicle traffic on accidents on different types of Spanish interurban roads

This paper illustrates a methodology developed to analyze the influence of traffic conditions, i.e. volume and composition on accidents on different types of interurban roads in Spain, by applying negative binomial models. The annual average daily traffic was identified as the most important variable, followed by the percentage of heavy goods vehicles, and different covariate patterns were found for each road type. The analysis of hypothetical scenarios of the reduction of heavy goods vehicles in two of the most representative freight transportation corridors, combined with hypotheses of total daily traffic mean intensity variation, produced by the existence or absence of induced traffic gives rise to several scenarios. In all cases a reduction in the total number of accidents would occur as a result of the drop in the number of heavy goods transport vehicles, However the higher traffic intensity, resulting of the induction of other vehicular traffic, reduces the effects on the number of accidents on single carriageway road segments compared with high capacity roads, due to the increase in exposure. This type of analysis provides objective elements for evaluating policies that encourage modal shifts and road safety enhancements

Modelling of advanced submicron gate InGaAs/InAIAs pHEMTS and RTD devices for very high frequency applications

InP based InAlAs/InGaAs pseudomorphic High Electron Mobility Transistors (pHEMTs) have shown outstanding performances, which makes them prominent in high frequency mm-wave and submillimeter-wave applications. However, conventional InGaAs/InAlAs pHEMTs have major drawbacks, i.e., very low breakdown voltage and high gate leakage current. These disadvantages degrade device performance, especially in Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuit (MMIC) low noise amplifiers (LNAs). The optimisation of InAlAs/InGaAs epilayer structures through advanced bandgap engineering together with gate length reduction from 1 m into deep sub-μm regime is the key solution to enabled high breakdown and ultra-high speed, low noise pHEMT devices to be fabricated. Concurrently, device modelling plays a vital role in the design and analysis of pHEMT device and circuit performance. Physical modeling becomes essential to fully characterise and understand the underlying physical phenomenon of the device, while empirical modelling is significant in circuit design and predicts device’s characteristic performance. In this research, the main objectives to accurately model the DC and RF characteristics of the two-dimensional (2D) physical modelling for sub-μm gate length for strained channel InAlAs/InGaAs/InP pHEMT has been accomplished and developed in ATLAS Silvaco. All modelled devices were optimised and validated by experimental devices which were fabricated at the University of Manchester; the sub-micrometer devices were developed with T-gate using I-line optical lithography. The underlying device physics insight are gained, i.e, the effects of changes to the device’s physical structure, theoretical concepts and its general operation, hence a reliable pHEMT model is obtained. The kink anomalies in I-V characteristics was reproduced and the 2D simulation results demonstrate an outstanding agreement with measured DC and RF characteristics. The aims to develop linear and nonlinear models for sub-μm transistors and their implementation in MMIC LNA design is achieved with the 0.25 m In0.7Ga0.3As/In0.52Al0.48As/InP pHEMT. An accurate technique for the extraction of empirical models for the fabricated active devices has been developed and optimised using Advance Design System (ADS) software which demonstrate excellent agreement between experimental and modelled DC and RF data. A precise models for MMIC passive devices have also been obtained and incorporated in the proposed design for a single and double stage MMIC LNAs in C- and X-band frequency. The single stage LNA is designed to achieve maximum gain ranging from 9 to 13 dB over the band of operation while the gain is increased between 20 dB and 26 dB for the double stage LNA designs. A noise figure of less than 1.2 dB and 2 dB is expected respectively, for the C- and X-band LNA designed while retaining stability across the entire frequency bands. Although the RF performance of pHEMT is being vigorously pushed towards terahertz region, novel devices such as Resonant Tunnelling Diode (RTD) are needed to support future ultra-high speed, high frequency applications especially when it comes to THz frequencies. Hence, the study of physical modelling is extended to quantum modelling of an advanced In0.8Ga0.2As/AlAs RTD device to effectively model both large size and submicron RTD using Silvaco’s ATLAS software to reproduce the peak current density, peak-to-valley-current ratio (PVCR), and negative differential resistance (NDR) voltage range. The simple one-dimensional physical modelling for the RTD devices is optimised to achieve an excellent match with the fabricated RTD devices with variations in the spacer thickness, barrier thickness, quantum well thickness and doping concentration

First discovery augmented reality for learning solar systems

The development of Augmented Reality (AR) systems in educational settings should be given more attention and recognition on its contribution to the evolution of education. Although this shift of pedagogical method may disrupt the traditional curriculum model, it also offers great opportunity to complement and improve the modern age education model. This paper presents an AR-based mobile application for exploring Space and Science for primary school students called the First Discovery (FD). This application supplements a traditional book that contains 10 target images for solar system and its planets, which can be scanned by the AR camera in FD application. Evaluation was carried out among primary school children, elementary educators as well as parents, which showed a highly favorable response. It is hoped that the proposed FD application is able to improve the ability of children in retaining knowledge after the AR science learning experience, to enhance information accessibility of the science learning content for children as well as to develop creative learning and the ability of children in exploring and problem solvin

Autonomous Accident Monitoring Using Cellular Network Data

Mobile communication networks constitute large-scale sensor networks that generate huge amounts of data that can be refined into collective mobility patterns. In this paper we propose a method for using these patterns to autonomously monitor and detect accidents and other critical events. The approach is to identify a measure that is approximately time-invariant on short time-scales under regular conditions, estimate the short and long-term dynamics of this measure using Bayesian inference, and identify sudden shifts in mobility patterns by monitoring the divergence between the short and long-term estimates. By estimating long-term dynamics, the method is also able to adapt to long-term trends in data. As a proof-of-concept, we apply this approach in a vehicular traffic scenario, where we demonstrate that the method can detect traffic accidents and distinguish these from regular events, such as traffic congestions