3,611 research outputs found
Birth/birth-death processes and their computable transition probabilities with biological applications
Birth-death processes track the size of a univariate population, but many
biological systems involve interaction between populations, necessitating
models for two or more populations simultaneously. A lack of efficient methods
for evaluating finite-time transition probabilities of bivariate processes,
however, has restricted statistical inference in these models. Researchers rely
on computationally expensive methods such as matrix exponentiation or Monte
Carlo approximation, restricting likelihood-based inference to small systems,
or indirect methods such as approximate Bayesian computation. In this paper, we
introduce the birth(death)/birth-death process, a tractable bivariate extension
of the birth-death process. We develop an efficient and robust algorithm to
calculate the transition probabilities of birth(death)/birth-death processes
using a continued fraction representation of their Laplace transforms. Next, we
identify several exemplary models arising in molecular epidemiology,
macro-parasite evolution, and infectious disease modeling that fall within this
class, and demonstrate advantages of our proposed method over existing
approaches to inference in these models. Notably, the ubiquitous stochastic
susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model falls within this class, and we
emphasize that computable transition probabilities newly enable direct
inference of parameters in the SIR model. We also propose a very fast method
for approximating the transition probabilities under the SIR model via a novel
branching process simplification, and compare it to the continued fraction
representation method with application to the 17th century plague in Eyam.
Although the two methods produce similar maximum a posteriori estimates, the
branching process approximation fails to capture the correlation structure in
the joint posterior distribution
VI Workshop on Computational Data Analysis and Numerical Methods: Book of Abstracts
The VI Workshop on Computational Data Analysis and Numerical Methods (WCDANM) is going to be held on June 27-29, 2019, in the Department of Mathematics of the University of Beira Interior (UBI), Covilhã, Portugal and it is a unique opportunity to disseminate scientific research related to the areas of Mathematics in general, with particular relevance to the areas of Computational Data Analysis and Numerical Methods in theoretical and/or practical field, using new techniques, giving especial emphasis to applications in Medicine, Biology, Biotechnology, Engineering, Industry, Environmental Sciences, Finance, Insurance, Management and Administration. The meeting will provide a forum for discussion and debate of ideas with interest to the scientific community in general. With this meeting new scientific collaborations among colleagues, namely new collaborations in Masters and PhD projects are expected. The event is open to the entire scientific community (with or without communication/poster)
Numerical investigation of Differential Biological-Models via GA-Kansa Method Inclusive Genetic Strategy
In this paper, we use Kansa method for solving the system of differential
equations in the area of biology. One of the challenges in Kansa method is
picking out an optimum value for Shape parameter in Radial Basis Function to
achieve the best result of the method because there are not any available
analytical approaches for obtaining optimum Shape parameter. For this reason,
we design a genetic algorithm to detect a close optimum Shape parameter. The
experimental results show that this strategy is efficient in the systems of
differential models in biology such as HIV and Influenza. Furthermore, we prove
that using Pseudo-Combination formula for crossover in genetic strategy leads
to convergence in the nearly best selection of Shape parameter.Comment: 42 figures, 23 page
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