31,433 research outputs found
Early Warning Analysis for Social Diffusion Events
There is considerable interest in developing predictive capabilities for
social diffusion processes, for instance to permit early identification of
emerging contentious situations, rapid detection of disease outbreaks, or
accurate forecasting of the ultimate reach of potentially viral ideas or
behaviors. This paper proposes a new approach to this predictive analytics
problem, in which analysis of meso-scale network dynamics is leveraged to
generate useful predictions for complex social phenomena. We begin by deriving
a stochastic hybrid dynamical systems (S-HDS) model for diffusion processes
taking place over social networks with realistic topologies; this modeling
approach is inspired by recent work in biology demonstrating that S-HDS offer a
useful mathematical formalism with which to represent complex, multi-scale
biological network dynamics. We then perform formal stochastic reachability
analysis with this S-HDS model and conclude that the outcomes of social
diffusion processes may depend crucially upon the way the early dynamics of the
process interacts with the underlying network's community structure and
core-periphery structure. This theoretical finding provides the foundations for
developing a machine learning algorithm that enables accurate early warning
analysis for social diffusion events. The utility of the warning algorithm, and
the power of network-based predictive metrics, are demonstrated through an
empirical investigation of the propagation of political memes over social media
networks. Additionally, we illustrate the potential of the approach for
security informatics applications through case studies involving early warning
analysis of large-scale protests events and politically-motivated cyber
attacks
Different approaches to community detection
A precise definition of what constitutes a community in networks has remained
elusive. Consequently, network scientists have compared community detection
algorithms on benchmark networks with a particular form of community structure
and classified them based on the mathematical techniques they employ. However,
this comparison can be misleading because apparent similarities in their
mathematical machinery can disguise different reasons for why we would want to
employ community detection in the first place. Here we provide a focused review
of these different motivations that underpin community detection. This
problem-driven classification is useful in applied network science, where it is
important to select an appropriate algorithm for the given purpose. Moreover,
highlighting the different approaches to community detection also delineates
the many lines of research and points out open directions and avenues for
future research.Comment: 14 pages, 2 figures. Written as a chapter for forthcoming Advances in
network clustering and blockmodeling, and based on an extended version of The
many facets of community detection in complex networks, Appl. Netw. Sci. 2: 4
(2017) by the same author
Affinity Paths and Information Diffusion in Social Networks
Widespread interest in the diffusion of information through social networks
has produced a large number of Social Dynamics models. A majority of them use
theoretical hypothesis to explain their diffusion mechanisms while the few
empirically based ones average out their measures over many messages of
different content. Our empirical research tracking the step-by-step email
propagation of an invariable viral marketing message delves into the content
impact and has discovered new and striking features. The topology and dynamics
of the propagation cascades display patterns not inherited from the email
networks carrying the message. Their disconnected, low transitivity, tree-like
cascades present positive correlation between their nodes probability to
forward the message and the average number of neighbors they target and show
increased participants' involvement as the propagation paths length grows. Such
patterns not described before, nor replicated by any of the existing models of
information diffusion, can be explained if participants make their pass-along
decisions based uniquely on local knowledge of their network neighbors affinity
with the message content. We prove the plausibility of such mechanism through a
stylized, agent-based model that replicates the \emph{Affinity Paths} observed
in real information diffusion cascades.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figure
Random Walks on Stochastic Temporal Networks
In the study of dynamical processes on networks, there has been intense focus
on network structure -- i.e., the arrangement of edges and their associated
weights -- but the effects of the temporal patterns of edges remains poorly
understood. In this chapter, we develop a mathematical framework for random
walks on temporal networks using an approach that provides a compromise between
abstract but unrealistic models and data-driven but non-mathematical
approaches. To do this, we introduce a stochastic model for temporal networks
in which we summarize the temporal and structural organization of a system
using a matrix of waiting-time distributions. We show that random walks on
stochastic temporal networks can be described exactly by an
integro-differential master equation and derive an analytical expression for
its asymptotic steady state. We also discuss how our work might be useful to
help build centrality measures for temporal networks.Comment: Chapter in Temporal Networks (Petter Holme and Jari Saramaki
editors). Springer. Berlin, Heidelberg 2013. The book chapter contains minor
corrections and modifications. This chapter is based on arXiv:1112.3324,
which contains additional calculations and numerical simulation
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