Analysis of signalling pathways using continuous time Markov chains

We describe a quantitative modelling and analysis approach for signal transduction networks. We illustrate the approach with an example, the RKIP inhibited ERK pathway [CSK+03]. Our models are high level descriptions of continuous time Markov chains: proteins are modelled by synchronous processes and reactions by transitions. Concentrations are modelled by discrete, abstract quantities. The main advantage of our approach is that using a (continuous time) stochastic logic and the PRISM model checker, we can perform quantitative analysis such as what is the probability that if a concentration reaches a certain level, it will remain at that level thereafter? or how does varying a given reaction rate affect that probability? We also perform standard simulations and compare our results with a traditional ordinary differential equation model. An interesting result is that for the example pathway, only a small number of discrete data values is required to render the simulations practically indistinguishable

Analysis of signalling pathways using the prism model checker

We describe a new modelling and analysis approach for signal transduction networks in the presence of incomplete data. We illustrate the approach with an example, the RKIP inhibited ERK pathway [1]. Our models are based on high level descriptions of continuous time Markov chains: reactions are modelled as synchronous processes and concentrations are modelled by discrete, abstract quantities. The main advantage of our approach is that using a (continuous time) stochastic logic and the PRISM model checker, we can perform quantitative analysis of queries such as if a concentration reaches a certain level, will it remain at that level thereafter? We also perform standard simulations and compare our results with a traditional ordinary differential equation model. An interesting result is that for the example pathway, only a small number of discrete data values is required to render the simulations practically indistinguishable

Learning and Designing Stochastic Processes from Logical Constraints

Stochastic processes offer a flexible mathematical formalism to model and reason about systems. Most analysis tools, however, start from the premises that models are fully specified, so that any parameters controlling the system's dynamics must be known exactly. As this is seldom the case, many methods have been devised over the last decade to infer (learn) such parameters from observations of the state of the system. In this paper, we depart from this approach by assuming that our observations are {\it qualitative} properties encoded as satisfaction of linear temporal logic formulae, as opposed to quantitative observations of the state of the system. An important feature of this approach is that it unifies naturally the system identification and the system design problems, where the properties, instead of observations, represent requirements to be satisfied. We develop a principled statistical estimation procedure based on maximising the likelihood of the system's parameters, using recent ideas from statistical machine learning. We demonstrate the efficacy and broad applicability of our method on a range of simple but non-trivial examples, including rumour spreading in social networks and hybrid models of gene regulation

Petri nets for systems and synthetic biology

We give a description of a Petri net-based framework for modelling and analysing biochemical pathways, which uni¯es the qualita- tive, stochastic and continuous paradigms. Each perspective adds its con- tribution to the understanding of the system, thus the three approaches do not compete, but complement each other. We illustrate our approach by applying it to an extended model of the three stage cascade, which forms the core of the ERK signal transduction pathway. Consequently our focus is on transient behaviour analysis. We demonstrate how quali- tative descriptions are abstractions over stochastic or continuous descrip- tions, and show that the stochastic and continuous models approximate each other. Although our framework is based on Petri nets, it can be applied more widely to other formalisms which are used to model and analyse biochemical networks

Data-driven modelling of biological multi-scale processes

Biological processes involve a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A holistic understanding of many biological processes therefore requires multi-scale models which capture the relevant properties on all these scales. In this manuscript we review mathematical modelling approaches used to describe the individual spatial scales and how they are integrated into holistic models. We discuss the relation between spatial and temporal scales and the implication of that on multi-scale modelling. Based upon this overview over state-of-the-art modelling approaches, we formulate key challenges in mathematical and computational modelling of biological multi-scale and multi-physics processes. In particular, we considered the availability of analysis tools for multi-scale models and model-based multi-scale data integration. We provide a compact review of methods for model-based data integration and model-based hypothesis testing. Furthermore, novel approaches and recent trends are discussed, including computation time reduction using reduced order and surrogate models, which contribute to the solution of inference problems. We conclude the manuscript by providing a few ideas for the development of tailored multi-scale inference methods.Comment: This manuscript will appear in the Journal of Coupled Systems and Multiscale Dynamics (American Scientific Publishers

Modeling networks of spiking neurons as interacting processes with memory of variable length

We consider a new class of non Markovian processes with a countable number of interacting components, both in discrete and continuous time. Each component is represented by a point process indicating if it has a spike or not at a given time. The system evolves as follows. For each component, the rate (in continuous time) or the probability (in discrete time) of having a spike depends on the entire time evolution of the system since the last spike time of the component. In discrete time this class of systems extends in a non trivial way both Spitzer's interacting particle systems, which are Markovian, and Rissanen's stochastic chains with memory of variable length which have finite state space. In continuous time they can be seen as a kind of Rissanen's variable length memory version of the class of self-exciting point processes which are also called "Hawkes processes", however with infinitely many components. These features make this class a good candidate to describe the time evolution of networks of spiking neurons. In this article we present a critical reader's guide to recent papers dealing with this class of models, both in discrete and in continuous time. We briefly sketch results concerning perfect simulation and existence issues, de-correlation between successive interspike intervals, the longtime behavior of finite non-excited systems and propagation of chaos in mean field systems