Disentangling age-dependent DNA methylation: deterministic, stochastic, and nonlinear

DNA methylation variability arises due to concurrent genetic and environmental influences. Each of them is a mixture of regular and noisy sources, whose relative contribution has not been satisfactorily understood yet. We conduct a systematic assessment of the age-dependent methylation by the signal-to-noise ratio and identify a wealth of "deterministic" CpG probes (about 90%), whose methylation variability likely originates due to genetic and general environmental factors. The remaining 10% of "stochastic" CpG probes are arguably governed by the biological noise or incidental environmental factors. Investigating the mathematical functional relationship between methylation levels and variability, we find that in about 90% of the age-associated differentially methylated positions, the variability changes as the square of the methylation level, whereas in the most of the remaining cases the dependence is linear. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the methylation level itself in more than 15% cases varies nonlinearly with age (according to the power law), in contrast to the previously assumed linear changes. Our findings present ample evidence of the ubiquity of strong DNA methylation regulation, resulting in the individual age-dependent and nonlinear methylation trajectories, whose divergence explains the cross-sectional variability. It may also serve a basis for constructing novel nonlinear epigenetic clocks

Development of the VISAGE enhanced tool and statistical models for epigenetic age estimation in blood, buccal cells and bones

DNA methylation is known as a biomarker for age with applications in forensics. Here we describe the VISAGE (VISible Attributes through GEnomics) Consortium’s enhanced tool for epigenetic age estimation in somatic tissues. The tool is based on eight DNA methylation markers (44 CpGs), bisulfite multiplex PCR followed by sequencing on the MiSeq FGx platform, and three statistical prediction models for blood, buccal cells and bones. The model for blood is based on six CpGs from ELOVL2, MIR29B2CHG, KLF14, FHL2, TRIM59 and PDE4C, and predicts age with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.2 years, while the model for buccal cells includes five CpGs from PDE4C, MIR29B2CHG, ELOVL2, KLF14 and EDARADD and predicts age with MAE of 3.7 years, and the model for bones has six CpGs from ELOVL2, KLF14, PDE4C and ASPA and predicts age with MAE of 3.4 years. The VISAGE enhanced tool for age estimation in somatic tissues enables reliable collection of DNA methylation data from small amounts of DNA using a sensitive multiplex MPS assay that provides accurate estimation of age in blood, buccal swabs, and bones using the statistical model tailored to each tissue

Identifying epigenetic aging moderators using the epigenetic pacemaker

Epigenetic clocks are DNA methylation-based chronological age prediction models that are commonly employed to study age-related biology. The difference between the predicted and observed age is often interpreted as a form of biological age acceleration, and many studies have measured the impact of environmental and disease-associated factors on epigenetic age. Most epigenetic clocks are fit using approaches that minimize the error between the predicted and observed chronological age, and as a result, they may not accurately model the impact of factors that moderate the relationship between the actual and epigenetic age. Here, we compare epigenetic clocks that are constructed using penalized regression methods to an evolutionary framework of epigenetic aging with the epigenetic pacemaker (EPM), which directly models DNA methylation as a function of a time-dependent epigenetic state. In simulations, we show that the value of the epigenetic state is impacted by factors such as age, sex, and cell-type composition. Next, in a dataset aggregated from previous studies, we show that the epigenetic state is also moderated by sex and the cell type. Finally, we demonstrate that the epigenetic state is also moderated by toxins in a study on polybrominated biphenyl exposure. Thus, we find that the pacemaker provides a robust framework for the study of factors that impact epigenetic age acceleration and that the effect of these factors may be obscured in traditional clocks based on linear regression models

DNA methylation age and physical and cognitive ageing

Background: DNA methylation (DNAm) age acceleration (AgeAccel) has been shown to be predictive of all-cause mortality but it is unclear what functional aspect/s of ageing it captures. We examine associations between four measures of AgeAccel in adults aged 45-87 years and physical and cognitive performance and their age-related decline. / Methods: AgeAccelHannum, AgeAccelHorvath, AgeAccelPheno and AgeAccelGrim were calculated in the Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD), National Child Development Study (NCDS) and TwinsUK. Three measures of physical (grip strength, chair rise speed and forced expiratory volume in one second[FEV1]) and two measures of cognitive (episodic memory and mental speed) performance were assessed. / Results: AgeAccelPheno and AgeAccelGrim, but not AgeAccelHannum and AgeAccelHorvath were related to performance in random effects meta-analyses (n=1388-1685). For example, a one year increase in AgeAccelPheno/AgeAccelGrim was associated with a 0.01ml[95%CI:0.01,0.02]/0.03ml[95%CI:0.01,0.05] lower mean FEV1. In NSHD, AgeAccelPheno and AgeAccelGrim at 53 years were associated with age-related decline in performance between 53 and 69 years as tested by linear mixed models (p<0.05). In a subset of NSHD participants(n=482), there was little evidence that change in any AgeAccel measure was associated with change in performance conditional on baseline performance. / Conclusions: We found little evidence to support associations between the first generation of DNAm-based biomarkers of ageing and age-related physical or cognitive performance in mid-life to early old age. However, there was evidence that the second generation biomarkers, AgeAccelPheno and AgeAccelGrim, could act as makers of an individual’s health-span as proposed

Sparse reduced-rank regression for imaging genetics studies: models and applications

We present a novel statistical technique; the sparse reduced rank regression (sRRR) model which is a strategy for multivariate modelling of high-dimensional imaging responses and genetic predictors. By adopting penalisation techniques, the model is able to enforce sparsity in the regression coefficients, identifying subsets of genetic markers that best explain the variability observed in subsets of the phenotypes. To properly exploit the rich structure present in each of the imaging and genetics domains, we additionally propose the use of several structured penalties within the sRRR model. Using simulation procedures that accurately reflect realistic imaging genetics data, we present detailed evaluations of the sRRR method in comparison with the more traditional univariate linear modelling approach. In all settings considered, we show that sRRR possesses better power to detect the deleterious genetic variants. Moreover, using a simple genetic model, we demonstrate the potential benefits, in terms of statistical power, of carrying out voxel-wise searches as opposed to extracting averages over regions of interest in the brain. Since this entails the use of phenotypic vectors of enormous dimensionality, we suggest the use of a sparse classification model as a de-noising step, prior to the imaging genetics study. Finally, we present the application of a data re-sampling technique within the sRRR model for model selection. Using this approach we are able to rank the genetic markers in order of importance of association to the phenotypes, and similarly rank the phenotypes in order of importance to the genetic markers. In the very end, we illustrate the application perspective of the proposed statistical models in three real imaging genetics datasets and highlight some potential associations

Investigating the epigenetic discrimination of identical twins using buccal swabs, saliva, and cigarette butts in the forensic setting

Monozygotic (MZ) twins are typically indistinguishable via forensic DNA profiling. Recently, we demonstrated that epigenetic differentiation of MZ twins is feasible; however, proportions of twin differentially methylated CpG sites (tDMSs) identified in reference-type blood DNA were not replicated in trace-type blood DNA. Here we investigated buccal swabs as typical forensic reference material, and saliva and cigarette butts as commonly encountered forensic trace materials. As an analog to a forensic case, we analyzed one MZ twin pair. Epigenome-wide microarray analysis in reference-type buccal DNA revealed 25 candidate tDMSs with >0.5 twin-to-twin differences. MethyLight quantitative PCR (qPCR) of 22 selected tDMSs in trace-type DNA revealed in saliva DNA that six tDMSs (27.3%) had >0.1 twin-to-twin differences, seven (31.8%) had smaller (<0.1) but robustly detected differences, whereas for nine (40.9%) the differences were in the opposite direction relative to the microarray data; for cigarette butt DNA, results were 50%, 22.7%, and 27.3%, respectively. The discrepancies between reference-type and trace-type DNA outcomes can be explained by cell composition differences, method-to-method variation, and other technical reasons including bisulfite conversion inefficiency. Our study highlights the importance of the DNA source and that careful characterization of biological and technical effects is needed before epigenetic MZ twin differentiation is applicable in forensic casework

High-dimensional Feature Selection and Multi-level Causal Mediation Analysis with Applications to Human Aging and Cluster-based Intervention Studies

Many questions in public health and medicine are fundamentally causal in that our objective is to learn the effect of some exposure, randomized or not, on an outcome of interest. As a result, causal inference frameworks and methodologies have gained interest as a promising tool to reliably answer scientific questions. However, the tasks of identifying and efficiently estimating causal effects from observed data still pose significant challenges under complex data generating scenarios. We focus on (1) high-dimensional settings where the number of variables is orders of magnitude higher than the number of observations; and (2) multi-level settings, where study participants are grouped into clusters and the exposure is assigned at the cluster level. First, we propose a novel adaptation of the Super Learner algorithm for the task of feature selection in high-dimensional settings. In simulations and with real data, we demonstrate that our proposed approach improves the accuracy for identifying potential causes of a target variable by using a novel measure of variable importance, and by combining a library of feature selection algorithms. Second, we consider the task of estimating ‘biological age’ from a set of age-dependent variables of potentially high dimensions (e.g., -omics). We propose a new method for calculating biological age that is based on an adaptation of the algorithm presented in chapter 2. Then, we develop an approach to evaluate, compare, and combine different approaches to biological age estimation with the goal of constructing age-related disease risk scores which could potentially aide in diagnosis and prognosis of age-related diseases. Third, we turn our attention to causal mediation analysis in a multi-level setting where the exposure is assigned at the cluster level, but the mediator and outcomes are measured at the participant level. We extend the general hierarchical causal model to include mediating variables. We adapt the mediation effects that arise from the population intervention effect (PIE) via stochastic interventions on the exposure to the multi-level setting