Improvements in forecasting intense rainfall: results from the FRANC (forecasting rainfall exploiting new data assimilation techniques and novel observations of convection) project

The FRANC project (Forecasting Rainfall exploiting new data Assimilation techniques and Novel observations of Convection) has researched improvements in numerical weather prediction of convective rainfall via the reduction of initial condition uncertainty. This article provides an overview of the project’s achievements. We highlight new radar techniques: correcting for attenuation of the radar return; correction for beams that are over 90% blocked by trees or towers close to the radar; and direct assimilation of radar reflectivity and refractivity. We discuss the treatment of uncertainty in data assimilation: new methods for estimation of observation uncertainties with novel applications to Doppler radar winds, Atmospheric Motion Vectors, and satellite radiances; a new algorithm for implementation of spatially-correlated observation error statistics in operational data assimilation; and innovative treatment of moist processes in the background error covariance model. We present results indicating a link between the spatial predictability of convection and convective regimes, with potential to allow improved forecast interpretation. The research was carried out as a partnership between University researchers and the Met Office (UK). We discuss the benefits of this approach and the impact of our research, which has helped to improve operational forecasts for convective rainfall event

Adaptive Illumination Patterns for Radar Applications

The fundamental goal of Fully Adaptive Radar (FAR) involves full exploitation of the joint, synergistic adaptivity of the radar\u27s transmitter and receiver. Little work has been done to exploit the joint space time Degrees-of-Freedom (DOF) available via an Active Electronically Steered Array (AESA) during the radar\u27s transmit illumination cycle. This research introduces Adaptive Illumination Patterns (AIP) as a means for exploiting this previously untapped transmit DOF. This research investigates ways to mitigate clutter interference effects by adapting the illumination pattern on transmit. Two types of illumination pattern adaptivity were explored, termed Space Time Illumination Patterns (STIP) and Scene Adaptive Illumination Patterns (SAIP). Using clairvoyant knowledge, STIP demonstrates the ability to remove sidelobe clutter at user specified Doppler frequencies, resulting in optimum receiver performance using a non-adaptive receive processor. Using available database knowledge, SAIP demonstrated the ability to reduce training data heterogeneity in dense target environments, thereby greatly improving the minimum discernable velocity achieved through STAP processing

Nowcasting for a high-resolution weather radar network

2010 Fall.Includes bibliographical references.Short-term prediction (nowcasting) of high-impact weather events can lead to significant improvement in warnings and advisories and is of great practical importance. Nowcasting using weather radar reflectivity data has been shown to be particularly useful. The Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) radar network provides high-resolution reflectivity data amenable to producing valuable nowcasts. The high-resolution nature of CASA data requires the use of an efficient nowcasting approach, which necessitated the development of the Dynamic Adaptive Radar Tracking of Storms (DARTS) and sinc kernel-based advection nowcasting methodology. This methodology was implemented operationally in the CASA Distributed Collaborative Adaptive Sensing (DCAS) system in a robust and efficient manner necessitated by the high-resolution nature of CASA data and distributed nature of the environment in which the nowcasting system operates. Nowcasts up to 10 min to support emergency manager decision-making and 1-5 min to steer the CASA radar nodes to better observe the advecting storm patterns for forecasters and researchers are currently provided by this system. Results of nowcasting performance during the 2009 CASA IP experiment are presented. Additionally, currently state-of-the-art scale-based filtering methods were adapted and evaluated for use in the CASA DCAS to provide a scale-based analysis of nowcasting. DARTS was also incorporated in the Weather Support to Deicing Decision Making system to provide more accurate and efficient snow water equivalent nowcasts for aircraft deicing decision support relative to the radar-based nowcasting method currently used in the operational system. Results of an evaluation using data collected from 2007-2008 by the Weather Service Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) located near Denver, Colorado, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research Marshall Test Site near Boulder, Colorado, are presented. DARTS was also used to study the short-term predictability of precipitation patterns depicted by high-resolution reflectivity data observed at microalpha (0.2-2 km) to mesobeta (20-200 km) scales by the CASA radar network. Additionally, DARTS was used to investigate the performance of nowcasting rainfall fields derived from specific differential phase estimates, which have been shown to provide more accurate and robust rainfall estimates compared to those made from radar reflectivity data

Detecting supraglacial debris thickness with GPR under suboptimal conditions

The thickness of a supraglacial layer is critical to the magnitude and time frame of glacier melt. Field-based, short pulse, ground-penetrating radar (GPR) has successfully measured debris thickness during a glacier\u27s melt season, when there is a strong return from the ice-debris interface, but profiling with GPR in the absence of a highly reflective ice interface has not been explored. We investigated the performance of 960 MHz signals over 2 km of transects on Changri Nup Glacier, Nepal, during the post-monsoon. We also performed laboratory experiments to interpret the field data and investigate electromagnetic wave propagation into dry rocky debris. Laboratory tests confirmed wave penetration into the glacier ice and suggest that the ice-debris interface return was missing in field data because of a weak dielectric contrast between solid ice and porous dry debris. We developed a new method to estimate debris thicknesses by applying a statistical approach to volumetric backscatter, and our backscatter-based calculated thickness retrievals gave reasonable agreement with debris depths measured manually in the field (10-40 cm). We conclude that, when melt season profiling is not an option, a remote system near 1 GHz could allow dry debris thickness to be estimated based on volumetric backscatter

Polarization techniques for mitigation of low grazing angle sea clutter

Maritime surveillance radars are critical in commerce, transportation, navigation, and defense. However, the sea environment is perhaps the most challenging of natural radar backdrops because maritime radars must contend with electromagnetic backscatter from the sea surface, or sea clutter. Sea clutter poses unique challenges in very low grazing angle geometries, where typical statistical assumptions regarding sea clutter backscatter do not hold. As a result, traditional constant false alarm rate (CFAR) detection schemes may yield a large number of false alarms while objects of interest may be challenging to detect. Solutions posed in the literature to date have been either computationally impractical or lacked robustness. This dissertation explores whether fully polarimetric radar offers a means of enhancing detection performance in low grazing angle sea clutter. To this end, MIT Lincoln Laboratory funded an experimental data collection using a fully polarimetric X-band radar assembled largely from commercial off-the-shelf components. The Point de Chene Dataset, collected on the Atlantic coast of Massachusetts’ Cape Ann in October 2015, comprises multiple sea states, bandwidths, and various objects of opportunity. The dataset also comprises three different polarimetric transmit schemes. In addition to discussing the radar, the dataset, and associated post-processing, this dissertation presents a derivation showing that an established multiple input, multiple output radar technique provides a novel means of simultaneous polarimetric scattering matrix measurement. A novel scheme for polarimetric radar calibration using a single active calibration target is also presented. Subsequent research leveraged this dataset to develop Polarimetric Co-location Layering (PCL), a practical algorithm for mitigation of low grazing angle sea clutter, which is the most significant contribution of this dissertation. PCL routinely achieves a significant reduction in the standard CFAR false alarm rate while maintaining detections on objects of interest. Moreover, PCL is elegant: It exploits fundamental characteristics of both sea clutter and object returns to determine which CFAR detections are due to sea clutter. We demonstrate that PCL is robust across a range of bandwidths, pulse repetition frequencies, and object types. Finally, we show that PCL integrates in parallel into the standard radar signal processing chain without incurring a computational time penalty