Explaining Poverty in Uganda: Evidence from the Uganda National Household Survey

The broad aim of the research was to establish a tool for identifying cost effective poverty alleviation strategies in Uganda. The objectives were to test hypotheses on causes of poverty in Uganda and to develop a poverty simulation model for policy analysis. Data for 9,710 households from the 2002/2003 Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) was used to estimate a semi-log econometric model. The model included 19 households level characteristics and 8 community level characteristics as explanatory variables. The dependent variable was the natural logarithm of household consumption per adult equivalent. The model was estimated at both national and regional (5 regions) by weighted least squares with robust variance. The results identified 8 particularly promising poverty reducing policies namely: expansion of formal employment, secondary education, reduction in population growth, rural electrification, off-farm activities, collateral free credit, telephone services and reducing distance to community services. The study highlights the policy implications of the results.Food Security and Poverty,

Macroeconomic and welfare consequences of high energy prices

The current wave of volatile international oil process coupled with the low hydro-energy generation continues to exert negative impacts on the Ugandan economy. This paper analyzes the extent to which changes in energy prices affect the economy and examines policy options that can be undertaken to circumvent the negative effects. The impact of higher oil prices takes a large toll on all sectors including agriculture, manufacturing and services. With the existing loses in productivity of generating hydro electricity, this has exacerbated the energy crisis. The combined output loss for the manufacturing sector due to increase in fuel prices and a shortage of electricity is estimated at 2 percent on annual basis. While the government has title control on the international prices of oil, further private and public investments in the energy sector are called for to alleviate the shortages of energy.Oil, Energy, Hydro-electricity, Public investment, Twimukye, Matovu, EPRC, Industrial Organization, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Political Economy, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, Public Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty,

The impact of OECD Agricultural trade liberalization on poverty in Uganda

The paper examines the projected impacts of agricultural trade liberalisation by OECD countries on poverty in Uganda and compares them to the poverty impacts of all merchandise trade liberalisation. The overall impact of OECD agricultural trade liberalisation on welfare in Uganda from this simulation is positive in contrast to previous research, nevertheless, the poor appear to be made worse off. The liberalisation of all OECD merchandise trade including non-agricultural commodities reduces welfare for all deciles irrespective of household poverty status, residence and region. The results for global partial merchandise trade liberalisation are similar to those for total trade liberalisation with an overall welfare decline of about 0.5 percent. More specifically, even the modest welfare gains for producers from increased prices seem to be offset by welfare losses from increases in consumer goods. Overall, because of the large subsistence agricultural sector, households tend to experience little or no change in total welfare arising from agricultural price changes. Increases in market value of their agricultural based output tend to be offset by changes in the opportunity cost of their subsistence consumption of the bulk of that output.Microsimulation, agricultural trade liberalization, Uganda , poverty

A portable device for nucleic acid quantification powered by sunlight, a flame or electricity.

A decentralized approach to diagnostics can decrease the time to treatment of infectious diseases in resource-limited settings. Yet most modern diagnostic tools require stable electricity and are not portable. Here, we describe a portable device for isothermal nucleic-acid quantification that can operate with power from electricity, sunlight or a flame, and that can store heat from intermittent energy sources, for operation when electrical power is not available or reliable. We deployed the device in two Ugandan health clinics, where it successfully operated through multiple power outages, with equivalent performance when powered via sunlight or electricity. A direct comparison between the portable device and commercial qPCR (quantitative polymerase chain reaction) machines for samples from 71 Ugandan patients (29 of which were tested in Uganda) for the presence of Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus DNA showed 94% agreement, with the four discordant samples having the lowest concentration of the herpesvirus DNA. The device's flexibility in power supply provides a needed solution for on-field diagnostics

Managing future oil revenue in Uganda for agricultural development and poverty reduction: A CGE analysis of challenges and options

With the recent discovery of crude oil reserves along the Albertine Rift, Uganda is set to establish itself as an oil producer in the coming decade. Total oil reserves are believed to be two billion barrels, with recoverable reserves estimated at 0.8–1.2 billion barrels. At peak production, likely to be reached by 2017, oil output will range from 120,000 to 210,000 barrels per day, with a production period spanning up to 30 years. Depending on the exact production levels, the extraction period, the future oil price, and revenue sharing agreements with oil producers, the Ugandan government is set to earn revenue equal to 10–15 percent of GDP at peak production. The discovery of crude oil therefore has the potential to provide significant stimulus to the Ugandan economy and address its development objectives. However, this is subject to careful management of oil revenues to avoid the potential pitfall of a sudden influx of foreign exchange. Dominating the concerns is the potential appreciation in the real exchange rate and subsequent loss of competitiveness in the nonresource tradable goods sectors such as agriculture or manufacturing (Dutch Disease). These sectors are often major employers in developing countries and the engines of growth. Several mitigation measures can be employed by government to counter Dutch Disease, including measures that directly counter the real exchange rate appreciation or measures that offer direct support to traditional export sectors in the form of subsidies.crude oil, agricultural competitiveness, general equilibrium modeling,

Identifying spatial efficiency-equity tradeoffs in territorial development policies : evidence from Uganda

In many countries, place specific investments in infrastructure are viewed as integral components of territorial development policies. But are these policies fighting market forces of concentration? Or are they adding net value to the national economy by tapping underexploited resources? This paper contributes to the debate on the spatial allocation of infrastructure investments by examining where these investments will generate the highest economic returns"spatial efficiency", and identifying whether there re tradeoffs when infrastructure coverage is made more equitable across regions"spatial equity". The empirical analysis focuses on Uganda and is based on estimating models of firm location choice, drawing on insights from the new economic geography literature. The main findings show that establishments in the manufacturing industry gain from being in areas that offer a diverse mix of economic activities. In addition, availability of power supply, transport links connecting districts to markets, and the supply of skilled workers attract manufacturing activities. Combining all these factors gives a distinct advantage to existing agglomerations along leading areas around Kampala and Jinja. Infrastructure investments in these areas are likely to produce the highest returns compared with investments elsewhere. Public infrastructure investments in other locations are likely to attract fewer private investors, and will pose a spatial efficiencyequity tradeoff. To better integrate lagging regions with the national economy, lessons from the WDR2009"Reshaping Economic Geography"calling for investments in health and education in lagging areas are likely to be more beneficial.Transport Economics Policy&Planning,E-Business,Banks&Banking Reform,Non Bank Financial Institutions,Economic Theory&Research

Rural electrification in central america and east africa, two case studies of sustainable microgrids

This paper deals with the electrification of rural villages in developing countries using Sustainable Energy Systems. The rural electrification feasibility study is done using Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewable PRO (HOMER PRO). The HOMER PRO energy modelling software is an optimization software improved by U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. It helps in designing, comparing and optimizing the design of power generation technologies. In this paper, two rural electrification case studies are modelled and analysed using HOMER PRO. Technical and economic evaluation criteria are applied to study the feasibility of a micro-hydro plant in El Díptamo (Honduras), and a hybrid plant composed of photovoltaic module arrays, Diesel generators, and flow batteries, in a small island on Victoria Lake. For both cases, we show the results of the studies of the daily and yearly loads, of the resources available in the area and the economic evaluation of the chosen plants configuration

Assessing the impact of infrastructure quality on firm productivity in Africa : cross-country comparisons based on investment climate surveys from 1999 to 2005

This paper provides a systematic, empirical assessment of the impact of infrastructure quality on the total factor productivity (TFP) of African manufacturing firms. This measure is understood to include quality in the provision of customs clearance, energy, water, sanitation, transportation, telecommunications, and information and communications technology (ICT). Microeconometric techniques to investment climate surveys (ICSs) of 26 African countries are carried out in different years during the period 2002–6, making country-specific evaluations of the impact of investment climate (IC) quality on aggregate TFP, average TFP, and allocative efficiency. For each country the impact is evaluated based on 10 different productivity measures. Results are robust once controlled for observable fixed effects (red tape, corruption and crime, finance, innovation and labor skills, etc.) obtained from the ICSs. African countries are ranked according to several indices: per capita income, ease of doing business, firm perceptions of growth bottlenecks, and the concept of demeaned productivity (Olley and Pakes 1996). The countries are divided into two blocks: high-income-growth and low-income-growth. Infrastructure quality has a low impact on TFP in countries of the first block and a high (negative) impact in countries of the second. There is significant heterogeneity in the individual infrastructure elements affecting countries from both blocks. Poor-quality electricity provision affects mainly poor countries, whereas problems dealing with customs while importing or exporting affects mainly faster-growing countries. Losses from transport interruptions affect mainly slower-growing countries. Water outages affect mainly slower-growing countries. There is also some heterogeneity among countries in the infrastructure determinants of the allocative efficiency of African firms.Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Economic Theory&Research,E-Business,Labor Policies,Infrastructure Economics

Assessing the impact of infrastructure quality on firm productivity in Africa: Cross-country comparisons based on investment climate surveys from 1999 to 2005

This paper provides a systematic, empirical assessment of the impact of infrastructure quality on the total factor productivity (TFP) of African manufacturing firms. This measure is understood to include quality in the provision of customs clearance, energy, water, sanitation, transportation, telecommunications, and information and communications technology (ICT). We apply microeconometric techniques to investment climate surveys (ICSs) of 26 African countries carried out in different years during the period 2002–6, making country-specific evaluations of the impact of investment climate (IC) quality on aggregate TFP, average TFP, and allocative efficiency. For each country we evaluated this impact based on 10 different productivity measures. Results are robust once we control for observable fixed effects (red tape, corruption and crime, finance, innovation and labor skills, etc.) obtained from the ICSs. We ranked African countries according to several indices: per capita income, ease of doing business, firm perceptions of growth bottlenecks, and the concept of demeaned productivity (Olley and Pakes 1996). We divided countries into two blocks: high-incomegrowth and low-income-growth. Infrastructure quality has a low impact on TFP in countries of the first block and a high (negative) impact in countries of the second. We found heterogeneity in the individual infrastructure elements affecting countries from both blocks. Poor-quality electricity provision affects mainly poor countries, whereas problems dealing with customs while importing or exporting affects mainly faster-growing countries. Losses from transport interruptions affect mainly slower-growing countries. Water outages affect mainly slower-growing countries. There is also some heterogeneity among countries in the infrastructure determinants of the allocative efficiency of African firms.Africa, Infrastructure, Total factor productivity, Investment climate, Competitiveness,