Agent-based modelling - A methodology for the analysis of qualitative development processes

The tremendous development of an easy access to computational power within the last 30 years has led to the widespread use of numerical approaches in almost all scientific disciplines. The first generation of simulation models was rather focused on stylized empirical phenomena. With agent-based modelling, however, the trade-off between simplicity in modelling and taking into account the complexity of the socio-economic reality has been enhanced to a large extent. This paper serves as a basic instruction on how to model qualitative change using an agent-based modelling procedure. The necessity to focus on qualitative change is discussed, agent-based modelling is explained and finally an example is given to show the basic simplicity in modelling.agent-based modelling, methodology, evolutionary economics, qualitative change

Business Process Innovation using the Process Innovation Laboratory

Most organizations today are required not only to establish effective business processes but they are required to accommodate for changing business conditions at an increasing rate. Many business processes extend beyond the boundary of the enterprise into the supply chain and the information infrastructure therefore is critical. Today nearly every business relies on their Enterprise System (ES) for process integration and the future generations of enterprise systems will increasingly be driven by business process models. Consequently process modeling and improvement will become vital for business process innovation (BPI) in future organizations. There is a significant body of knowledge on various aspect of process innovation, e.g. on conceptual modeling, business processes, supply chains and enterprise systems. Still an overall comprehensive and consistent theoretical framework with guidelines for practical applications has not been identified. The aim of this paper is to establish a conceptual framework for business process innovation in the supply chain based on advanced enterprise systems. The main approach to business process innovation in this context is to create a new methodology for exploring process models and patterns of applications. The paper thus presents a new concept for business process innovation called the process innovation laboratory a.k.a. the Ð-Lab. The Ð-Lab is a comprehensive framework for BPI using advanced enterprise systems. The Ð-Lab is a collaborative workspace for experimenting with process models and an explorative approach to study integrated modeling in a controlled environment. The Ð-Lab facilitates innovation by using an integrated action learning approach to process modeling including contemporary technological, organizational and business perspectivesNo; keywords

Putting theory oriented evaluation into practice

Evaluations of gaming simulations and business games as teaching devices are typically end-state driven. This emphasis fails to detect how the simulation being evaluated does or does not bring about its desired consequences. This paper advances the use of a logic model approach which possesses a holistic perspective that aims at including all elements associated with the situation created by a game. The use of the logic model approach is illustrated as applied to Simgame, a board game created for secondary school level business education in six European Union countries

R&D Subsidization effect and network centralization. Evidence from an agent-based micro-policy simulation

This paper presents an agent-based micro-policy simulation model assessing public R&D policy effect when R&D and non-R&D performing companies are located within a network. We set out by illustrating the behavioural structure and the computational logic of the proposed model; then, we provide a simulation experiment where the pattern of the total level of R&D activated by a fixed amount of public support is analysed as function of companies’ network topology. More specifically, the suggested simulation experiment shows that a larger “hubness” of the network is more likely accompanied with a decreasing median of the aggregated total R&D performance of the system. Since the aggregated firm idiosyncratic R&D (i.e., the part of total R&D independent of spillovers) is slightly increasing, we conclude that positive cross-firm spillover effects - in the presence of a given amount of support - have a sizeable impact within less centralized networks, where fewer hubs emerge. This may question the common wisdom suggesting that larger R&D externality effects should be more likely to arise when few central champions receive a support

Diffusion of shared goods in consumer coalitions. An agent-based model

This paper focuses on the process of coalition formation conditioning the common decision to adopt a shared good, which cannot be afforded by an average single consumer and whose use cannot be exhausted by any single consumer. An agent based model is developed to study the interplay between these two processes: coalition formation and diffusion of shared goods. Coalition formation is modelled in an evolutionary game theoretic setting, while adoption uses elements from both the Bass and the threshold models. Coalitions formation sets the conditions for adoption, while diffusion influences the consequent formation of coalitions. Results show that both coalitions and diffusion are subject to network effects and have an impact on the information flow though the population of consumers. Large coalitions are preferred over small ones since individual cost is lower, although it increases if higher quantities are purchased collectively. The paper concludes by connecting the model conceptualisation to the on-going discussion of diffusion of sustainable goods, discussing related policy implications

Cost comparison of orthopaedic fracture pathways using discrete event simulation in a Glasgow hospital

Objective: Healthcare faces the continual challenge of improving outcome whilst aiming to reduce cost. The aim of this study was to determine the micro cost differences of the Glasgow non-operative trauma virtual pathway in comparison to a traditional pathway. Design:  Discrete event simulation was used to model and analyse cost and resource utilisation with an activity based costing approach. Data for a full comparison before the process change was unavailable so we utilised a modelling approach, comparing a Virtual Fracture Clinic (VFC) to a simulated Traditional Fracture Clinic (TFC). Setting:  The orthopaedic unit VFC pathway pioneered at Glasgow Royal Infirmary has attracted significant attention and interest and is the focus of this cost study. Outcome measures: Our study focused exclusively on non-operative trauma patients attending Emergency Department or the minor injuries unit and the subsequent step in the patient pathway. Retrospective studies of patient outcomes as a result of the protocol introductions for specific injuries in association with activity costs from the models.ResultsPatients are satisfied with the new pathway, the information provided and the outcome of their injuries (Evidence Level IV). There was a 65% reduction in the number of first outpatient face-to-face attendances in orthopaedics. In the VFC pathway, the resources required per day were significantly lower for all staff groups (p=<0.001). The overall cost per patient of the VFC pathway was £22.84 (95% CI: 21.74, 23.92) per patient compared with £36.81 (95% CI: 35.65, 37.97) for the TFC pathway.  Conclusions:  Our results give a clearer picture of the cost comparison of the virtual pathway over a wholly traditional face-to-face clinic system. The use of simulation-based stochastic costings in healthcare economic analysis has been limited to date, but this study provides evidence for adoption of this method as a basis for its application in other healthcare settings

Difficulties of Estimating the Cost of Achieving Education Standards

Outlines the limitations of four approaches to estimating the resources needed to improve educational outcomes, including higher state standards, varied student needs, different capacities and prices for education inputs across districts, and poor data

How can we know if EU cohesion policy is successful? Integrating micro and macro approaches to the evaluation of Structural Funds

In this paper we describe an integrated approach for assessing the general economic effectiveness, efficiency and impact of public policy actions for large investment programs of the kind implemented over the past fifteen years in EU-aided Structural Fund programmes. Far from being rigid, our modelling philosophy includes both formal tools designed to assess all relevant effects, as well as informal (intuitive) elements to allow for flexible policy design and evaluation. When setting up an integrated micro-macro (IMM) model we are trying to over-come two major shortcomings in actual policy design and analysis: Firstly, to bridge the gap between the scientific requirements of model-based decision making and evaluation and the practical requirement for flexible and easy to use decision support tools that are well suited for day-to-day application. Secondly, to address the observed discrepancy in policy analysis between programme monitoring and evaluation realized at a highly aggregate level using quantitative macromodels (the so called “top down” approach) and the highly disaggregated approach to project evaluation, marked as micro- or “bottom up”-approaches.

Virtual Reality Interactive Learning Environment

Open Building Manufacturing (ManuBuild) aims to promote the European construction industry beyond the state of the art. However, this requires the different stakeholders to be well informed of what ‘Open Building Manufacturing’ actually entails with respect to understanding the underlying concepts, benefits and risks. This is further challenged by the ‘traditional ways of learning’ which have been predominantly criticised for being entrenched in theories with little or no emphasis on practical issues. Experiential learning has long been suggested to overcome the problems associated with the traditional ways of learning. In this respect, it has the dual benefit of appealing to adult learner's experience base, as well as increasing the likelihood of performance change through training. On-the-job-training (OJT) is usually sought to enable ‘experiential’ learning; and it is argued to be particularly effective in complex tasks, where a great deal of independence is granted to the task performer. However, OJT has been criticised for being expensive, limited, and devoid of the actual training context. Consequently, in order to address the problems encountered with OJT, virtual reality (VR) solutions have been proposed to provide a risk free environment for learning without the ‘do-or-die’ consequences often faced on real construction projects. Since ManuBuild aims to promote the EU construction industry beyond the state of the art; training and education therefore needs also to go beyond the state of the art in order to meet future industry needs and expectations. Hence, a VR interactive learning environment was suggested for Open Building Manufacturing training to allow experiential learning to take place in a risk free environment, and consequently overcome the problems associated with OJT. This chapter discusses the development, testing, and validation of this prototype