DTALite: A queue-based mesoscopic traffic simulator for fast model evaluation and calibration

abstract: A number of emerging dynamic traffic analysis applications, such as regional or statewide traffic assignment, require a theoretically rigorous and computationally efficient model to describe the propagation and dissipation of system congestion with bottleneck capacity constraints. An open-source light-weight dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) package, namely DTALite, has been developed to allow a rapid utilization of advanced dynamic traffic analysis capabilities. This paper describes its three major modeling components: (1) a light-weight dynamic network loading simulator that embeds Newell’s simplified kinematic wave model; (2) a mesoscopic agent-based DTA procedure to incorporate driver’s heterogeneity; and (3) an integrated traffic assignment and origin–destination demand calibration system that can iteratively adjust path flow volume and distribution to match the observed traffic counts. A number of real-world test cases are described to demonstrate the effectiveness and performance of the proposed models under different network and data availability conditions.The final version of this article, as published in Cogent Engineering, can be viewed online at: https://www.cogentoa.com/article/10.1080/23311916.2014.96134

A new methodological framework for within-day dynamic estimation of pollutant emissions in a large congested urban network

This paper presents a new methodological framework to address the problem of estimating pollutant emissions for large congested urban networks in a within-day dynamic context. It consists of three main modules: 1) a module to compute pollutant emissions for general links; 2) a module to compute pollutant emissions for all links approaching a signalized intersection; 3) a module to compute pollutant emissions for all links approaching an unsignalized intersection. A dynamic mesoscopic assignment model is performed to derive the main dynamic input of each one of the modules. All the modules have been tested in a real case study (the district of Eur in the city of Rome, Italy), so confirming the reliability of the developed models and their applicability for the estimation of pollutant emissions

Store-and-forward based methods for the signal control problem in large-scale congested urban road networks

The problem of designing network-wide traffic signal control strategies for large-scale congested urban road networks is considered. One known and two novel methodologies, all based on the store-and-forward modeling paradigm, are presented and compared. The known methodology is a linear multivariable feedback regulator derived through the formulation of a linear-quadratic optimal control problem. An alternative, novel methodology consists of an open-loop constrained quadratic optimal control problem, whose numerical solution is achieved via quadratic programming. Yet a different formulation leads to an open-loop constrained nonlinear optimal control problem, whose numerical solution is achieved by use of a feasible-direction algorithm. A preliminary simulation-based investigation of the signal control problem for a large-scale urban road network using these methodologies demonstrates the comparative efficiency and real-time feasibility of the developed signal control methods

Methodology for development of drought Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) Curves

Drought monitoring and early warning are essential elements impacting drought sensitive sectors such as primary production, industrial and consumptive water users. A quantitative estimate of the probability of occurrence and the anticipated severity of drought is crucial for the development of mitigating strategies. The overall aim of this study is to develop a methodology to assess drought frequency and severity and to advance the understanding of monitoring and predicting droughts in the future. Seventy (70) meteorological stations across Victoria, Australia were selected for analysis. To achieve the above objective, the analysis was initially carried out to select the most applicable meteorological drought index for Victoria. This is important because to date, no drought indices are applied across Australia by any Commonwealth agency quantifying drought impacts. An evaluation of existing meteorological drought indices namely, the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Deciles was first conducted to assess their suitability for the determination of drought conditions. The use of the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) was shown to be satisfactory for assessing and monitoring meteorological droughts in Australia. When applied to data, SPI was also successful in detecting the onset and the end of historical droughts. Temporal changes in historic rainfall variability and the trend of SPI were investigated using non-parametric trend techniques to detect wet and dry periods across Victoria, Australia. The first part of the analysis was carried out to determine annual rainfall trends using Mann Kendall (MK) and Sen’s slope tests at five selected meteorological stations with long historical records (more than 100 years), as well as a short sub-set period (1949-2011) of the same data set. It was found that different trend results were obtained for the sub-set. For SPI trend analysis, it was observed that, although different results were obtained showing significant trends, SPI gave a trend direction similar to annual precipitation (downward and upward trends). In addition, temporal trends in the rate of occurrence of drought events (i.e. inter-arrival times) were examined. The fact that most of the stations showed negative slopes indicated that the intervals between events were becoming shorter and the frequency of events was temporally increasing. Based on the results obtained from the preliminary analysis, the trend analyses were then carried out for the remaining 65 stations. The main conclusions from these analyses are summarized as follows; 1) the trend analysis was observed to be highly dependent on the start and end dates of analysis. It is recommended that in the selection of time period for the drought, trend analysis should consider the length xvi of available data sets. Longer data series would give more meaningful results, thus improving the understanding of droughts impacted by climate change. 2) From the SPI and inter-arrival drought trends, it was observed that some of the study areas in Victoria will face more frequent dry period leading to increased drought occurrence. Information similar to this would be very important to develop suitable strategies to mitigate the impacts of future droughts. The main objective of this study was the development of a methodology to assess drought risk for each region based on a frequency analysis of the drought severity series using the SPI index calculated over a 12-month duration. A novel concept centric on drought severity-duration-frequency (SDF) curves was successfully derived for all the 70 stations using an innovative threshold approach. The methodology derived using extreme value analysis will assist in the characterization of droughts and provide useful information to policy makers and agencies developing drought response plans. Using regionalisation techniques such as Cluster analysis and modified Andrews curve, the study area was separated into homogenous groups based on rainfall characteristics. In the current Victorian application the study area was separated into six homogeneous clusters with unique signatures. A set of mean SDF curves was developed for each cluster to identify the frequency and severity of the risk of drought events for various return periods in each cluster. The advantage of developing a mean SDF curve (as a signature) for each cluster is that it assists the understanding of drought conditions for an ungauged or unknown station, the characteristics of which fit existing cluster groups. Non-homogeneous Markov Chain modelling was used to estimate the probability of different drought severity classes and drought severity class predictions 1, 2 and 3 months ahead. The non-homogeneous formulation, which considers the seasonality of precipitation, is useful for understanding the evolution of drought events and for short-term planning. Overall, this model predicted drought situations 1 month ahead well. However, predictions 2 and 3 months ahead should be used with caution. Many parts of Australia including Victoria have experienced their worst droughts on record over the last decade. With the threat of climate change potentially further exacerbating droughts in the years ahead, a clear understanding of the impact of droughts is vital. The information on the probability of occurrence and the anticipated severity of drought will be helpful for water resources managers, infrastructure planners and government policy-makers with future infrastructure planning and with the design and building of more resilient communities

Modeling, Control, and Impact Analysis of The Next Generation Transportation System

This dissertation aims to develop a systematic tool designated for connected and autonomous vehicles, integrating the simulation of traffic dynamics, traffic control strategies, and impact analysis at the network level. The first part of the dissertation is devoted to the traffic flow modeling of connected vehicles. This task is the foundation step for transportation planning, optimized network design, efficient traffic control strategies, etc, of the next generation transportation system. Chapter 2 proposes a cell-based simulation approach to model the proactive driving behavior of connected vehicles. Firstly, a state variable of connected vehicle is introduced to track the trajectory of connected vehicles. Then the exit flow of cells containing connected vehicles is adjusted to simulate the proactive driving behavior, such that the traffic light is green when the connected vehicle arrives at the signalized intersection. Extensive numerical simulation results consistently show that the presence of connected vehicles contributes significantly to the smoothing of traffic flow and vehicular emission reductions in the network. Chapter 3 proposes an optimal estimation approach to calibrate connected vehicles\u27 car-following behavior in a mixed traffic environment. Particularly, the state-space system dynamics is captured by the simplified car-following model with disturbances, where the trajectory of non-connected vehicles are considered as unknown states and the trajectory of connected vehicles are considered as measurements with errors. Objective of the reformulation is to obtain an optimal estimation of states and model parameters simultaneously. It is shown that the customized state-space model is identifiable with the mild assumption that the disturbance covariance of the state update process is diagonal. Then a modified Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm based on Kalman smoother is developed to solve the optimal estimation problem. The second part of the dissertation is on traffic control strategies. This task drives the next generation transportation system to a better performance state in terms of safety, mobility, travel time saving, vehicular emission reduction, etc. Chapter 4 develops a novel reinforcement learning algorithm for the challenging coordinated signal control problem. Traffic signals are modeled as intelligent agents interacting with the stochastic traffic environment. The model is built on the framework of coordinated reinforcement learning. The Junction Tree Algorithm based reinforcement learning is proposed to obtain an exact inference of the best joint actions for all the coordinated intersections. The algorithm is implemented and tested with a network containing 18 signalized intersections from a microscopic traffic simulator. Chapter 5 develops a novel linear programming formulation for autonomous intersection control (LPAIC) accounting for traffic dynamics within a connected vehicle environment. Firstly, a lane based bi-level optimization model is introduced to propagate traffic flows in the network. Then the bi-level optimization model is transformed to the linear programming formulation by relaxing the nonlinear constraints with a set of linear inequalities. One special feature of the LPAIC formulation is that the entries of the constraint matrix has only values in {-1, 0, 1}. Moreover, it is proved that the constraint matrix is totally unimodular, the optimal solution exists and contains only integer values. Further, it shows that traffic flows from different lanes pass through the conflict points of the intersection safely and there are no holding flows in the solution. Three numerical case studies are conducted to demonstrate the properties and effectiveness of the LPAIC formulation to solve autonomous intersection control. The third part of the dissertation moves on to the impact analysis of connected vehicles and autonomous vehicles at the network level. This task assesses the positive and negative impacts of the system and provides guidance on transportation planning, traffic control, transportation budget spending, etc. In this part, the impact of different penetration rates of connected vehicle and autonomous vehicles is revealed on the network efficiency of a transportation system. Chapter 6 sets out to model an efficient and fair transportation system accounting for both departure time choice and route choice of a general multi OD network within a dynamic traffic assignment environment. Firstly, a bi-level optimization formulation is introduced based on the link-based traffic flow model. The upper level of the formulation minimizes the total system travel time, whereas the lower level captures traffic flow propagation and the user equilibrium constraint. Then the bi-level formulation is relaxed to a linear programming formulation that produces a lower bound of an efficient and fair system state. An efficient iterative algorithm is proposed to obtain the exact solution. It is shown that the number of iterations is bounded, and the output traffic flow solution is efficient and fair. Finally, two numerical cases (including a single OD network and a multi-OD network) are conducted to demonstrate the performance of the algorithm. The results consistently show that the travel time of different departure rates of the same OD pair are identical and the algorithm converges within two iterations across all test scenarios

Data-driven linear decision rule approach for distributionally robust optimization of on-line signal control

We propose a two-stage, on-line signal control strategy for dynamic networks using a linear decision rule (LDR) approach and a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) technique. The first (off-line) stage formulates a LDR that maps real-time traffic data to optimal signal control policies. A DRO problem is solved to optimize the on-line performance of the LDR in the presence of uncertainties associated with the observed traffic states and ambiguity in their underlying distribution functions. We employ a data-driven calibration of the uncertainty set, which takes into account historical traffic data. The second (on-line) stage implements a very efficient linear decision rule whose performance is guaranteed by the off-line computation. We test the proposed signal control procedure in a simulation environment that is informed by actual traffic data obtained in Glasgow, and demonstrate its full potential in on-line operation and deployability on realistic networks, as well as its effectiveness in improving traffic