Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods

We looked at evidence from comparative empirical studies to identify methods that can be useful for predicting demand in various situations and to warn against methods that should not be used. In general, use structured methods and avoid intuition, unstructured meetings, focus groups, and data mining. In situations where there are sufficient data, use quantitative methods including extrapolation, quantitative analogies, rule-based forecasting, and causal methods. Otherwise, use methods that structure judgement including surveys of intentions and expectations, judgmental bootstrapping, structured analogies, and simulated interaction. Managers' domain knowledge should be incorporated into statistical forecasts. Methods for combining forecasts, including Delphi and prediction markets, improve accuracy. We provide guidelines for the effective use of forecasts, including such procedures as scenarios. Few organizations use many of the methods described in this paper. Thus, there are opportunities to improve efficiency by adopting these forecasting practices.Accuracy, expertise, forecasting, judgement, marketing.

Conceptual graph-based knowledge representation for supporting reasoning in African traditional medicine

Although African patients use both conventional or modern and traditional healthcare simultaneously, it has been proven that 80% of people rely on African traditional medicine (ATM). ATM includes medical activities stemming from practices, customs and traditions which were integral to the distinctive African cultures. It is based mainly on the oral transfer of knowledge, with the risk of losing critical knowledge. Moreover, practices differ according to the regions and the availability of medicinal plants. Therefore, it is necessary to compile tacit, disseminated and complex knowledge from various Tradi-Practitioners (TP) in order to determine interesting patterns for treating a given disease. Knowledge engineering methods for traditional medicine are useful to model suitably complex information needs, formalize knowledge of domain experts and highlight the effective practices for their integration to conventional medicine. The work described in this paper presents an approach which addresses two issues. First it aims at proposing a formal representation model of ATM knowledge and practices to facilitate their sharing and reusing. Then, it aims at providing a visual reasoning mechanism for selecting best available procedures and medicinal plants to treat diseases. The approach is based on the use of the Delphi method for capturing knowledge from various experts which necessitate reaching a consensus. Conceptual graph formalism is used to model ATM knowledge with visual reasoning capabilities and processes. The nested conceptual graphs are used to visually express the semantic meaning of Computational Tree Logic (CTL) constructs that are useful for formal specification of temporal properties of ATM domain knowledge. Our approach presents the advantage of mitigating knowledge loss with conceptual development assistance to improve the quality of ATM care (medical diagnosis and therapeutics), but also patient safety (drug monitoring)

Improving Indonesia's Forest and Land Governance: Using a Delphi Approach to Identify Efficacious Interventions

It is now recognized that addressing deforestation and forest and peatlands degradation and destruction in Indonesia requires improvements to land and forest governance. It is also accepted that further research is required into this large field of study and practice. In particular needs have been identified for better links between theory and practice, and between academic analysis and work in the field. To respond to this gap, this study investigates the underlying drivers of deforestation, and forest and peatlands degradation and destruction (herein called deforestation and peatlands degradation) with the intention of identifying interventions that will improve land and forest governance in Indonesia. Through a Delphi process, a panel of experts on forest and land governance identified three main drivers of deforestation and peatlands degradation. These were: (1) unclear land tenure and uncertain land classification (agreed by 88% of respondents); (2) business and political interests that influence policy-making and regulations (70% agreement) and (3) ineffective land use planning (53% agreement). In response, the panel recommended three priority governance interventions relating to the following issues: (1) increasing the capacity of local communities to manage and monitor forests and natural resources (65% agreement); (2) gazetting forests to clarify land boundaries and determine which areas should be village, community and state forest zone (58% agreement); (3) integrating participatory maps into spatial plans to protect local communities and indigenous peoples' development needs (53% agreement). A research theme with the highest agreement was the following: action research involving the government, private sector and community (64% agreement). This study finds that there is strong support for community level approaches to forest management. Securing community forest tenure through clarifying land claims and integrating local land tenure into spatial planning is a key step to achieving sustainable forest management. The concluding recommendations suggest that the most efficacious interventions to be taken by researchers, government, donors and civil society to improve Indonesia's forest and land governance processes include: Support community institutions; Accelerate forest gazettement using local community institutions to clarify community forest claims; Integrate participatory maps into spatial plans; Support local communities' ability to monitor forests; Conduct action research involving all stakeholders; Address financing of the forest and land sector; Engage political economy analysis

Identifying Agile Requirements Engineering Patterns in Industry

Agile Software Development (ASD) is gaining in popularity in today´s business world. Industry is adopting agile methodologies both to accelerate value delivery and to enhance the ability to deal with changing requirements. However, ASD has a great impact on how Requirements Engineering (RE) is carried out in agile environments. The integration of Human-Centered Design (HCD) plays an important role due to the focus on user and stakeholder involvement. To this end, we aim to introduce agile RE patterns as main objective of this paper. On the one hand, we will describe our pattern mining process based on empirical research in literature and industry. On the other hand, we will discuss our results and provide two examples of agile RE patterns. In sum, the pattern mining process identifies 41 agile RE patterns. The accumulated knowledge will be shared by means of a web application.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad TIN2013-46928-C3-3-RMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad TIN2016-76956-C3-2-RMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad TIN2015-71938-RED

Self-Organising Networks for Classification: developing Applications to Science Analysis for Astroparticle Physics

Physics analysis in astroparticle experiments requires the capability of recognizing new phenomena; in order to establish what is new, it is important to develop tools for automatic classification, able to compare the final result with data from different detectors. A typical example is the problem of Gamma Ray Burst detection, classification, and possible association to known sources: for this task physicists will need in the next years tools to associate data from optical databases, from satellite experiments (EGRET, GLAST), and from Cherenkov telescopes (MAGIC, HESS, CANGAROO, VERITAS)

Transferring intermediate technologies to rural enterprises in developing economies: a conceptual framework

This paper integrates the contributions from different branches of the technology transfer literature to identify enablers driving the transfer of intermediate or appropriate technologies to recipients in rural areas of developing economies. An in-depth analysis of the literature shows that many enablers identified in the literature focus on high technology transfers and are of limited relevance in the context of rural enterprises. Other important enablers in this specific setting are ignored or insufficiently considered. This paper proposes a framework comprising a specific set of enablers that facilitates technology transfer in rural enterprises in developing regional economies

BlogForever D3.2: Interoperability Prospects

This report evaluates the interoperability prospects of the BlogForever platform. Therefore, existing interoperability models are reviewed, a Delphi study to identify crucial aspects for the interoperability of web archives and digital libraries is conducted, technical interoperability standards and protocols are reviewed regarding their relevance for BlogForever, a simple approach to consider interoperability in specific usage scenarios is proposed, and a tangible approach to develop a succession plan that would allow a reliable transfer of content from the current digital archive to other digital repositories is presented

Lethal Autonomous Weapons: Designing War Machines with Values

Lethal Autonomous Weapons (LAWs) have becomes the subject of continuous debate both at national and international levels. Arguments have been proposed both for the development and use of LAWs as well as their prohibition from combat landscapes. Regardless, the development of LAWs continues in numerous nation-states. This paper builds upon previous philosophical arguments for the development and use of LAWs and proposes a design framework that can be used to ethically direct their development. The conclusion is that the philosophical arguments that underpin the adoption of LAWs rather than not, although prima facie insufficient, can be actualized through the proposed Value Sensitive Design (VSD) approach. Hence, what is proposed is a principled design approach that can be used to embed stakeholder values into a design, encourage stakeholder cooperation and coordination and as a result promote social acceptance of LAWs as a preferable future fact of war

A Determination of the Centre-of-Mass Energy at LEP2 using Radiative 2-fermion Events

Using e+e- -> mu+mu-(gamma) and e+e- -> qqbar(gamma) events radiative to the Z pole, DELPHI has determined the centre-of-mass energy, sqrt{s}, using energy and momentum constraint methods. The results are expressed as deviations from the nominal LEP centre-of-mass energy, measured using other techniques. The results are found to be compatible with the LEP Energy Working Group estimates for a combination of the 1997 to 2000 data sets.Comment: 20 pages, 6 figures, Accepted by Eur. Phys. J.