Robust Singular Smoothers For Tracking Using Low-Fidelity Data

Tracking underwater autonomous platforms is often difficult because of noisy, biased, and discretized input data. Classic filters and smoothers based on standard assumptions of Gaussian white noise break down when presented with any of these challenges. Robust models (such as the Huber loss) and constraints (e.g. maximum velocity) are used to attenuate these issues. Here, we consider robust smoothing with singular covariance, which covers bias and correlated noise, as well as many specific model types, such as those used in navigation. In particular, we show how to combine singular covariance models with robust losses and state-space constraints in a unified framework that can handle very low-fidelity data. A noisy, biased, and discretized navigation dataset from a submerged, low-cost inertial measurement unit (IMU) package, with ultra short baseline (USBL) data for ground truth, provides an opportunity to stress-test the proposed framework with promising results. We show how robust modeling elements improve our ability to analyze the data, and present batch processing results for 10 minutes of data with three different frequencies of available USBL position fixes (gaps of 30 seconds, 1 minute, and 2 minutes). The results suggest that the framework can be extended to real-time tracking using robust windowed estimation.Comment: 9 pages, 9 figures, to be included in Robotics: Science and Systems 201

Optimization viewpoint on Kalman smoothing, with applications to robust and sparse estimation

In this paper, we present the optimization formulation of the Kalman filtering and smoothing problems, and use this perspective to develop a variety of extensions and applications. We first formulate classic Kalman smoothing as a least squares problem, highlight special structure, and show that the classic filtering and smoothing algorithms are equivalent to a particular algorithm for solving this problem. Once this equivalence is established, we present extensions of Kalman smoothing to systems with nonlinear process and measurement models, systems with linear and nonlinear inequality constraints, systems with outliers in the measurements or sudden changes in the state, and systems where the sparsity of the state sequence must be accounted for. All extensions preserve the computational efficiency of the classic algorithms, and most of the extensions are illustrated with numerical examples, which are part of an open source Kalman smoothing Matlab/Octave package.Comment: 46 pages, 11 figure

Estimation, Analysis and Smoothing of Self-Similar Network Induced Delays in Feedback Control of Nuclear Reactors

This paper analyzes a nuclear reactor power signal that suffers from network induced random delays in the shared data network while being fed-back to the Reactor Regulating System (RRS). A detailed study is carried out to investigate the self similarity of random delay dynamics due to the network traffic in shared medium. The fractionality or selfsimilarity in the network induced delay that corrupts the measured power signal coming from Self Powered Neutron Detectors (SPND) is estimated and analyzed. As any fractional order randomness is intrinsically different from conventional Gaussian kind of randomness, these delay dynamics need to be handled efficiently, before reaching the controller within the RRS. An attempt has been made to minimize the effect of the randomness in the reactor power transient data with few classes of smoothing filters. The performance measure of the smoothers with fractional order noise consideration is also investigated into.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figure

Smoothing Dynamic Systems with State-Dependent Covariance Matrices

Kalman filtering and smoothing algorithms are used in many areas, including tracking and navigation, medical applications, and financial trend filtering. One of the basic assumptions required to apply the Kalman smoothing framework is that error covariance matrices are known and given. In this paper, we study a general class of inference problems where covariance matrices can depend functionally on unknown parameters. In the Kalman framework, this allows modeling situations where covariance matrices may depend functionally on the state sequence being estimated. We present an extended formulation and generalized Gauss-Newton (GGN) algorithm for inference in this context. When applied to dynamic systems inference, we show the algorithm can be implemented to preserve the computational efficiency of the classic Kalman smoother. The new approach is illustrated with a synthetic numerical example.Comment: 8 pages, 1 figur

Multivariate control charts based on Bayesian state space models

This paper develops a new multivariate control charting method for vector autocorrelated and serially correlated processes. The main idea is to propose a Bayesian multivariate local level model, which is a generalization of the Shewhart-Deming model for autocorrelated processes, in order to provide the predictive error distribution of the process and then to apply a univariate modified EWMA control chart to the logarithm of the Bayes' factors of the predictive error density versus the target error density. The resulting chart is proposed as capable to deal with both the non-normality and the autocorrelation structure of the log Bayes' factors. The new control charting scheme is general in application and it has the advantage to control simultaneously not only the process mean vector and the dispersion covariance matrix, but also the entire target distribution of the process. Two examples of London metal exchange data and of production time series data illustrate the capabilities of the new control chart.Comment: 19 pages, 6 figure

Robust Control Charts for Time Series Data

This article presents a control chart for time series data, based on the one-step- ahead forecast errors of the Holt-Winters forecasting method. We use robust techniques to prevent that outliers affect the estimation of the control limits of the chart. Moreover, robustness is important to maintain the reliability of the control chart after the occurrence of alarm observations. The properties of the new control chart are examined in a simulation study and on a real data example.Control chart;Holt-Winters;Non-stationary time series;Out- lier detection;Robustness;Statistical process control