Calibration of Distributionally Robust Empirical Optimization Models

We study the out-of-sample properties of robust empirical optimization problems with smooth $\phi$-divergence penalties and smooth concave objective functions, and develop a theory for data-driven calibration of the non-negative "robustness parameter" $\delta$ that controls the size of the deviations from the nominal model. Building on the intuition that robust optimization reduces the sensitivity of the expected reward to errors in the model by controlling the spread of the reward distribution, we show that the first-order benefit of ``little bit of robustness" (i.e., $\delta$ small, positive) is a significant reduction in the variance of the out-of-sample reward while the corresponding impact on the mean is almost an order of magnitude smaller. One implication is that substantial variance (sensitivity) reduction is possible at little cost if the robustness parameter is properly calibrated. To this end, we introduce the notion of a robust mean-variance frontier to select the robustness parameter and show that it can be approximated using resampling methods like the bootstrap. Our examples show that robust solutions resulting from "open loop" calibration methods (e.g., selecting a $90\%$ confidence level regardless of the data and objective function) can be very conservative out-of-sample, while those corresponding to the robustness parameter that optimizes an estimate of the out-of-sample expected reward (e.g., via the bootstrap) with no regard for the variance are often insufficiently robust.Comment: 51 page

Semi-supervised Learning based on Distributionally Robust Optimization

We propose a novel method for semi-supervised learning (SSL) based on data-driven distributionally robust optimization (DRO) using optimal transport metrics. Our proposed method enhances generalization error by using the unlabeled data to restrict the support of the worst case distribution in our DRO formulation. We enable the implementation of our DRO formulation by proposing a stochastic gradient descent algorithm which allows to easily implement the training procedure. We demonstrate that our Semi-supervised DRO method is able to improve the generalization error over natural supervised procedures and state-of-the-art SSL estimators. Finally, we include a discussion on the large sample behavior of the optimal uncertainty region in the DRO formulation. Our discussion exposes important aspects such as the role of dimension reduction in SSL

Chance-Constrained Trajectory Optimization for Safe Exploration and Learning of Nonlinear Systems

Learning-based control algorithms require data collection with abundant supervision for training. Safe exploration algorithms ensure the safety of this data collection process even when only partial knowledge is available. We present a new approach for optimal motion planning with safe exploration that integrates chance-constrained stochastic optimal control with dynamics learning and feedback control. We derive an iterative convex optimization algorithm that solves an \underline{Info}rmation-cost \underline{S}tochastic \underline{N}onlinear \underline{O}ptimal \underline{C}ontrol problem (Info-SNOC). The optimization objective encodes both optimal performance and exploration for learning, and the safety is incorporated as distributionally robust chance constraints. The dynamics are predicted from a robust regression model that is learned from data. The Info-SNOC algorithm is used to compute a sub-optimal pool of safe motion plans that aid in exploration for learning unknown residual dynamics under safety constraints. A stable feedback controller is used to execute the motion plan and collect data for model learning. We prove the safety of rollout from our exploration method and reduction in uncertainty over epochs, thereby guaranteeing the consistency of our learning method. We validate the effectiveness of Info-SNOC by designing and implementing a pool of safe trajectories for a planar robot. We demonstrate that our approach has higher success rate in ensuring safety when compared to a deterministic trajectory optimization approach.Comment: Submitted to RA-L 2020, review-