A Robust Bayesian Truth Serum for Non-binary Signals

Several mechanisms have been proposed for incentivizing truthful reports of a private signals owned by rational agents, among them the peer prediction method and the Bayesian truth serum. The robust Bayesian truth serum (RBTS) for small populations and binary signals is particularly interesting since it does not require a common prior to be known to the mechanism. We further analyze the problem of the common prior not known to the mechanism and give several results regarding the restrictions that need to be placed in order to have an incentive-compatible mechanism. Moreover, we construct a Bayes-Nash incentive-compatible scheme called multi-valued RBTS that generalizes RBTS to operate on both small populations and non-binary signals. Copyright © 2013, Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (www.aaai.org). All rights reserved

Equilibrium Selection in Information Elicitation without Verification via Information Monotonicity

In this paper, we propose a new mechanism - the Disagreement Mechanism - which elicits privately-held, non-variable information from self-interested agents in the single question (peer-prediction) setting. To the best of our knowledge, our Disagreement Mechanism is the first strictly truthful mechanism in the single-question setting that is simultaneously: - Detail-Free: does not need to know the common prior; - Focal: truth-telling pays strictly higher than any other symmetric equilibria excluding some unnatural permutation equilibria; - Small group: the properties of the mechanism hold even for a small number of agents, even in binary signal setting. Our mechanism only asks each agent her signal as well as a forecast of the other agents\u27 signals. Additionally, we show that the focal result is both tight and robust, and we extend it to the case of asymmetric equilibria when the number of agents is sufficiently large

Bayesian markets to elicit private information

Financial markets reveal what investors think about the future, and prediction markets are used to forecast election results. Could markets also encourage people to reveal private information, such as subjective judgments (e.g., “Are you satisfied with your life?”) or unverifiable facts? This paper shows how to design such markets, called Bayesian markets. People trade an asset whose value represents the proportion of affirmative answers to a question. Their trading position then reveals their own answer to the question. The results of this paper are based on a Bayesian setup in which people use their private information (their “type”) as a signal. Hence, beliefs about others’ types are correlated with one’s own type. Bayes

Civic Crowdfunding for Agents with Negative Valuations and Agents with Asymmetric Beliefs

In the last decade, civic crowdfunding has proved to be effective in generating funds for the provision of public projects. However, the existing literature deals only with citizen's with positive valuation and symmetric belief towards the project's provision. In this work, we present novel mechanisms which break these two barriers, i.e., mechanisms which incorporate negative valuation and asymmetric belief, independently. For negative valuation, we present a methodology for converting existing mechanisms to mechanisms that incorporate agents with negative valuations. Particularly, we adapt existing PPR and PPS mechanisms, to present novel PPRN and PPSN mechanisms which incentivize strategic agents to contribute to the project based on their true preference. With respect to asymmetric belief, we propose a reward scheme Belief Based Reward (BBR) based on Robust Bayesian Truth Serum mechanism. With BBR, we propose a general mechanism for civic crowdfunding which incorporates asymmetric agents. We leverage PPR and PPS, to present PPRx and PPSx. We prove that in PPRx and PPSx, agents with greater belief towards the project's provision contribute more than agents with lesser belief. Further, we also show that contributions are such that the project is provisioned at equilibrium.Comment: Accepted as full paper in IJCAI 201