A review of dynamic Bayesian network techniques with applications in healthcare risk modelling

Coping with an ageing population is a major concern for healthcare organisations around the world. The average cost of hospital care is higher than social care for older and terminally ill patients. Moreover, the average cost of social care increases with the age of the patient. Therefore, it is important to make efficient and fair capacity planning which also incorporates patient centred outcomes. Predictive models can provide predictions which their accuracy can be understood and quantified. Predictive modelling can help patients and carers to get the appropriate support services, and allow clinical decision-makers to improve care quality and reduce the cost of inappropriate hospital and Accident and Emergency admissions. The aim of this study is to provide a review of modelling techniques and frameworks for predictive risk modelling of patients in hospital, based on routinely collected data such as the Hospital Episode Statistics database. A number of sub-problems can be considered such as Length-of-Stay and End-of-Life predictive modelling. The methodologies in the literature are mainly focused on addressing the problems using regression methods and Markov models, and the majority lack generalisability. In some cases, the robustness, accuracy and re-usability of predictive risk models have been shown to be improved using Machine Learning methods. Dynamic Bayesian Network techniques can represent complex correlations models and include small probabilities into the solution. The main focus of this study is to provide a review of major time-varying Dynamic Bayesian Network techniques with applications in healthcare predictive risk modelling

Cloud Storage and Bioinformatics in a private cloud deployment: Lessons for Data Intensive research

This paper describes service portability for a private cloud deployment, including a detailed case study about Cloud Storage and bioinformatics services developed as part of the Cloud Computing Adoption Framework (CCAF). Our Cloud Storage design and deployment is based on Storage Area Network (SAN) technologies, details of which include functionalities, technical implementation, architecture and user support. Experiments for data services (backup automation, data recovery and data migration) are performed and results confirm backup automation is completed swiftly and is reliable for data-intensive research. The data recovery result confirms that execution time is in proportion to quantity of recovered data, but the failure rate increases in an exponential manner. The data migration result confirms execution time is in proportion to disk volume of migrated data, but again the failure rate increases in an exponential manner. In addition, benefits of CCAF are illustrated using several bioinformatics examples such as tumour modelling, brain imaging, insulin molecules and simulations for medical training. Our Cloud Storage solution described here offers cost reduction, time-saving and user friendliness

Human reliability analysis: exploring the intellectual structure of a research field

Humans play a crucial role in modern socio-technical systems. Rooted in reliability engineering, the discipline of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) has been broadly applied in a variety of domains in order to understand, manage and prevent the potential for human errors. This paper investigates the existing literature pertaining to HRA and aims to provide clarity in the research field by synthesizing the literature in a systematic way through systematic bibliometric analyses. The multi-method approach followed in this research combines factor analysis, multi-dimensional scaling, and bibliometric mapping to identify main HRA research areas. This document reviews over 1200 contributions, with the ultimate goal of identifying current research streams and outlining the potential for future research via a large-scale analysis of contributions indexed in Scopus database

Advances in computational modelling for personalised medicine after myocardial infarction

Myocardial infarction (MI) is a leading cause of premature morbidity and mortality worldwide. Determining which patients will experience heart failure and sudden cardiac death after an acute MI is notoriously difficult for clinicians. The extent of heart damage after an acute MI is informed by cardiac imaging, typically using echocardiography or sometimes, cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR). These scans provide complex data sets that are only partially exploited by clinicians in daily practice, implying potential for improved risk assessment. Computational modelling of left ventricular (LV) function can bridge the gap towards personalised medicine using cardiac imaging in patients with post-MI. Several novel biomechanical parameters have theoretical prognostic value and may be useful to reflect the biomechanical effects of novel preventive therapy for adverse remodelling post-MI. These parameters include myocardial contractility (regional and global), stiffness and stress. Further, the parameters can be delineated spatially to correspond with infarct pathology and the remote zone. While these parameters hold promise, there are challenges for translating MI modelling into clinical practice, including model uncertainty, validation and verification, as well as time-efficient processing. More research is needed to (1) simplify imaging with CMR in patients with post-MI, while preserving diagnostic accuracy and patient tolerance (2) to assess and validate novel biomechanical parameters against established prognostic biomarkers, such as LV ejection fraction and infarct size. Accessible software packages with minimal user interaction are also needed. Translating benefits to patients will be achieved through a multidisciplinary approach including clinicians, mathematicians, statisticians and industry partners