Reliability Assessment of a Packaging Automatic Machine by Accelerated Life Testing Approach

Industrial competitiveness in innovation, the time of the market introduction of new machines and the level of reliability requested implies that the strategies for the development of products must be more and more efficient. In particular, researchers and practitioners are looking for methods to evaluate the reliability, as cheap as possible, knowing that systems are more and more reliable. This paper presents a reliability assessment procedure applied to a mechanical component of an automatic machine for packaging using the accelerated test approach. The general log-linear (GLL) model is combined based on a relationship between a number strains, in particular mechanical and time based. The complete Accelerated Life Testing - ALT approach is presented by using Weibull distribution and Maximum Likelihood verifying method. A test plan is proposed to estimate the unknown parameters of accelerated life models. Using the proposed ALT model, the reliability function of the component is evaluated and then compared with data from the field collected by customers referring to 8 years of real work on a fleet of automatic packaging machines. The results confirm that the assessment method through ALT is effective for lifetime prediction with shorter test times, and for the same reason it can improve the design process of automatic packaging machines

RELIABILITY TESTING & BAYESIAN MODELING OF HIGH POWER LEDS FOR USE IN A MEDICAL DIAGNOSTIC APPLICATION

While use of LEDs in fiber optics and lighting applications is common, their use in medical diagnostic applications is rare. Since the precise value of light intensity is used to interpret patient results, understanding failure modes is very important. The contributions of this thesis is that it represents the first measurements of reliability of AlGaInP LEDs for the medical environment of short pulse bursts and hence the uncovering of unique failure mechanisms. Through accelerated life tests (ALT), the reliability degradation model has been developed and other LED failure modes have been compared through a failure modes and effects criticality analysis (FMECA). Appropriate ALTs and accelerated degradation tests (ADT) were designed and carried out for commercially available AlGaInP LEDs. The bias conditions were current pulse magnitude and duration, current density and temperature. The data was fitted to both an Inverse Power Law model with current density J as the accelerating agent and also to an Arrhenius model with T as the accelerating agent. The optical degradation during ALT/ADT was found to be logarithmic with time at each test temperature. Further, the LED bandgap temporarily shifts towards the longer wavelength at high current and high junction temperature. Empirical coefficients for Varshini's equation were determined, and are now available for future reliability tests of LEDs for medical applications. In order to incorporate prior knowledge, the Bayesian analysis was carried out for LEDs. This consisted of identifying pertinent prior data and combining the experimental ALT results into a Weibull probability model for time to failure determination. The Weibull based Bayesian likelihood function was derived. For the 1st Bayesian updating, a uniform distribution function was used as the Prior for Weibull á-â parameters. Prior published data was used as evidence to get the 1st posterior joint á-â distribution. For the 2nd Bayesian updating, ALT data was used as evidence to obtain the 2nd posterior joint á-â distribution. The predictive posterior failure distribution was estimated by averaging over the range of á-â values. This research provides a unique contribution in reliability degradation model development based on physics of failure by modeling the LED output characterization (logarithmic degradation, TTF â<1), temperature dependence and a degree of Relevance parameter `R' in the Bayesian analysis

Contribution to reliable control of dynamic systems

This thesis presents sorne contributions to the field of Health-Aware Control (HAC) of dynamic systems. In the first part of this thesis, a review of the concepts and methodologies related to reliability versus degradation and fault tolerant control versus health-aware control is presented. Firstly, in an attempt to unify concepts, an overview of HAC, degradation, and reliability modeling including some of the most relevant theoretical and applied contributions is given. Moreover, reliability modeling is formalized and exemplified using the structure function, Bayesian networks (BNs) and Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) as modeling tools in reliability analysis. In addition, some Reliability lmportance Measures (RIMs) are presented. In particular, this thesis develops BNs models for overall system reliability analysis through the use of Bayesian inference techniques. Bayesian networks are powerful tools in system reliability assessment due to their flexibility in modeling the reliability structure of complex systems. For the HAC scheme implementation, this thesis presents and discusses the integration of actuators health information by means of RIMs and degradation in Model Predictive Control (MPC) and Linear Quadratic Regulator algorithms. In the proposed strategies, the cost function parameters are tuned using RIMs. The methodology is able to avoid the occurrence of catastrophic and incipient faults by monitoring the overall system reliability. The proposed HAC strategies are applied to a Drinking Water Network (DWN) and a multirotor UAV system. Moreover, a third approach, which uses MPC and restricts the degradation of the system components is applied to a twin rotor system. Finally, this thesis presents and discusses two reliability interpretations. These interpretations, namely instantaneous and expected, differ in the manner how reliability is evaluated and how its evolution along time is considered. This comparison is made within a HAC framework and studies the system reliability under both approaches.Aquesta tesi presenta algunes contribucions al camp del control basat en la salut dels components "Health-Aware Control" (HAC) de sistemes dinàmics. A la primera part d'aquesta tesi, es presenta una revisió dels conceptes i metodologies relacionats amb la fiabilitat versus degradació, el control tolerant a fallades versus el HAC. En primer lloc, i per unificar els conceptes, s'introdueixen els conceptes de degradació i fiabilitat, models de fiabilitat i de HAC incloent algunes de les contribucions teòriques i aplicades més rellevants. La tesi, a més, el modelatge de la fiabilitat es formalitza i exemplifica utilitzant la funció d'estructura del sistema, xarxes bayesianes (BN) i xarxes bayesianes dinamiques (DBN) com a eines de modelat i anàlisi de la fiabilitat com també presenta algunes mesures d'importància de la fiabilitat (RIMs). En particular, aquesta tesi desenvolupa models de BNs per a l'anàlisi de la fiabilitat del sistema a través de l'ús de tècniques d'inferència bayesiana. Les xarxes bayesianes són eines poderoses en l'avaluació de la fiabilitat del sistema gràcies a la seva flexibilitat en el modelat de la fiabilitat de sistemes complexos. Per a la implementació de l?esquema de HAC, aquesta tesi presenta i discuteix la integració de la informació sobre la salut i degradació dels actuadors mitjançant les RIMs en algoritmes de control predictiu basat en models (MPC) i control lineal quadràtic (LQR). En les estratègies proposades, els paràmetres de la funció de cost s'ajusten utilitzant els RIMs. Aquestes tècniques de control fiable permetran millorar la disponibilitat i la seguretat dels sistemes evitant l'aparició de fallades a través de la incorporació d'aquesta informació de la salut dels components en l'algoritme de control. Les estratègies de HAC proposades s'apliquen a una xarxa d'aigua potable (DWN) i a un sistema UAV multirrotor. A més, un tercer enfocament fent servir la degradació dels actuadors com a restricció dins l'algoritme de control MPC s'aplica a un sistema aeri a dos graus de llibertat (TRMS). Finalment, aquesta tesi també presenta i discuteix dues interpretacions de la fiabilitat. Aquestes interpretacions, nomenades instantània i esperada, difereixen en la forma en què s'avalua la fiabilitat i com es considera la seva evolució al llarg del temps. Aquesta comparació es realitza en el marc del control HAC i estudia la fiabilitat del sistema en tots dos enfocaments.Esta tesis presenta algunas contribuciones en el campo del control basado en la salud de los componentes “Health-Aware Control” (HAC) de sistemas dinámicos. En la primera parte de esta tesis, se presenta una revisión de los conceptos y metodologíasrelacionados con la fiabilidad versus degradación, el control tolerante a fallos versus el HAC. En primer lugar, y para unificar los conceptos, se introducen los conceptos de degradación y fiabilidad, modelos de fiabilidad y de HAC incluyendo algunas de las contribuciones teóricas y aplicadas más relevantes. La tesis, demás formaliza y ejemplifica el modelado de fiabilidad utilizando la función de estructura del sistema, redes bayesianas (BN) y redes bayesianas diná-micas (DBN) como herramientas de modelado y análisis de fiabilidad como también presenta algunas medidas de importancia de la fiabilidad (RIMs). En particular, esta tesis desarrolla modelos de BNs para el análisis de la fiabilidad del sistema a través del uso de técnicas de inferencia bayesiana. Las redes bayesianas son herramientas poderosas en la evaluación de la fiabilidad del sistema gracias a su flexibilidad en el modelado de la fiabilidad de sistemas complejos. Para la implementación del esquema de HAC, esta tesis presenta y discute la integración de la información sobre la salud y degradación de los actuadores mediante las RIMs en algoritmos de control predictivo basado en modelos (MPC) y del control cuadrático lineal (LQR). En las estrategias propuestas, los parámetros de la función de coste se ajustan utilizando las RIMs. Estas técnicas de control fiable permitirán mejorar la disponibilidad y la seguridad de los sistemas evitando la aparición de fallos a través de la incorporación de la información de la salud de los componentes en el algoritmo de control. Las estrategias de HAC propuestas se aplican a una red de agua potable (DWN) y a un sistema UAV multirotor. Además, un tercer enfoque que usa la degradación de los actuadores como restricción en el algoritmo de control MPC se aplica a un sistema aéreo con dos grados de libertad (TRMS). Finalmente, esta tesis también presenta y discute dos interpretaciones de la fiabilidad. Estas interpretaciones, llamadas instantánea y esperada, difieren en la forma en que se evalúa la fiabilidad y cómo se considera su evolución a lo largo del tiempo. Esta comparación se realiza en el marco del control HAC y estudia la fiabilidad del sistema en ambos enfoques

Contribution to reliable control of dynamic systems

Aplicat embargament des de la data de defensa fins al maig 2020This thesis presents sorne contributions to the field of Health-Aware Control (HAC) of dynamic systems. In the first part of this thesis, a review of the concepts and methodologies related to reliability versus degradation and fault tolerant control versus health-aware control is presented. Firstly, in an attempt to unify concepts, an overview of HAC, degradation, and reliability modeling including some of the most relevant theoretical and applied contributions is given. Moreover, reliability modeling is formalized and exemplified using the structure function, Bayesian networks (BNs) and Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) as modeling tools in reliability analysis. In addition, some Reliability lmportance Measures (RIMs) are presented. In particular, this thesis develops BNs models for overall system reliability analysis through the use of Bayesian inference techniques. Bayesian networks are powerful tools in system reliability assessment due to their flexibility in modeling the reliability structure of complex systems. For the HAC scheme implementation, this thesis presents and discusses the integration of actuators health information by means of RIMs and degradation in Model Predictive Control (MPC) and Linear Quadratic Regulator algorithms. In the proposed strategies, the cost function parameters are tuned using RIMs. The methodology is able to avoid the occurrence of catastrophic and incipient faults by monitoring the overall system reliability. The proposed HAC strategies are applied to a Drinking Water Network (DWN) and a multirotor UAV system. Moreover, a third approach, which uses MPC and restricts the degradation of the system components is applied to a twin rotor system. Finally, this thesis presents and discusses two reliability interpretations. These interpretations, namely instantaneous and expected, differ in the manner how reliability is evaluated and how its evolution along time is considered. This comparison is made within a HAC framework and studies the system reliability under both approaches.Aquesta tesi presenta algunes contribucions al camp del control basat en la salut dels components "Health-Aware Control" (HAC) de sistemes dinàmics. A la primera part d'aquesta tesi, es presenta una revisió dels conceptes i metodologies relacionats amb la fiabilitat versus degradació, el control tolerant a fallades versus el HAC. En primer lloc, i per unificar els conceptes, s'introdueixen els conceptes de degradació i fiabilitat, models de fiabilitat i de HAC incloent algunes de les contribucions teòriques i aplicades més rellevants. La tesi, a més, el modelatge de la fiabilitat es formalitza i exemplifica utilitzant la funció d'estructura del sistema, xarxes bayesianes (BN) i xarxes bayesianes dinamiques (DBN) com a eines de modelat i anàlisi de la fiabilitat com també presenta algunes mesures d'importància de la fiabilitat (RIMs). En particular, aquesta tesi desenvolupa models de BNs per a l'anàlisi de la fiabilitat del sistema a través de l'ús de tècniques d'inferència bayesiana. Les xarxes bayesianes són eines poderoses en l'avaluació de la fiabilitat del sistema gràcies a la seva flexibilitat en el modelat de la fiabilitat de sistemes complexos. Per a la implementació de l?esquema de HAC, aquesta tesi presenta i discuteix la integració de la informació sobre la salut i degradació dels actuadors mitjançant les RIMs en algoritmes de control predictiu basat en models (MPC) i control lineal quadràtic (LQR). En les estratègies proposades, els paràmetres de la funció de cost s'ajusten utilitzant els RIMs. Aquestes tècniques de control fiable permetran millorar la disponibilitat i la seguretat dels sistemes evitant l'aparició de fallades a través de la incorporació d'aquesta informació de la salut dels components en l'algoritme de control. Les estratègies de HAC proposades s'apliquen a una xarxa d'aigua potable (DWN) i a un sistema UAV multirrotor. A més, un tercer enfocament fent servir la degradació dels actuadors com a restricció dins l'algoritme de control MPC s'aplica a un sistema aeri a dos graus de llibertat (TRMS). Finalment, aquesta tesi també presenta i discuteix dues interpretacions de la fiabilitat. Aquestes interpretacions, nomenades instantània i esperada, difereixen en la forma en què s'avalua la fiabilitat i com es considera la seva evolució al llarg del temps. Aquesta comparació es realitza en el marc del control HAC i estudia la fiabilitat del sistema en tots dos enfocaments.Esta tesis presenta algunas contribuciones en el campo del control basado en la salud de los componentes “Health-Aware Control” (HAC) de sistemas dinámicos. En la primera parte de esta tesis, se presenta una revisión de los conceptos y metodologíasrelacionados con la fiabilidad versus degradación, el control tolerante a fallos versus el HAC. En primer lugar, y para unificar los conceptos, se introducen los conceptos de degradación y fiabilidad, modelos de fiabilidad y de HAC incluyendo algunas de las contribuciones teóricas y aplicadas más relevantes. La tesis, demás formaliza y ejemplifica el modelado de fiabilidad utilizando la función de estructura del sistema, redes bayesianas (BN) y redes bayesianas diná-micas (DBN) como herramientas de modelado y análisis de fiabilidad como también presenta algunas medidas de importancia de la fiabilidad (RIMs). En particular, esta tesis desarrolla modelos de BNs para el análisis de la fiabilidad del sistema a través del uso de técnicas de inferencia bayesiana. Las redes bayesianas son herramientas poderosas en la evaluación de la fiabilidad del sistema gracias a su flexibilidad en el modelado de la fiabilidad de sistemas complejos. Para la implementación del esquema de HAC, esta tesis presenta y discute la integración de la información sobre la salud y degradación de los actuadores mediante las RIMs en algoritmos de control predictivo basado en modelos (MPC) y del control cuadrático lineal (LQR). En las estrategias propuestas, los parámetros de la función de coste se ajustan utilizando las RIMs. Estas técnicas de control fiable permitirán mejorar la disponibilidad y la seguridad de los sistemas evitando la aparición de fallos a través de la incorporación de la información de la salud de los componentes en el algoritmo de control. Las estrategias de HAC propuestas se aplican a una red de agua potable (DWN) y a un sistema UAV multirotor. Además, un tercer enfoque que usa la degradación de los actuadores como restricción en el algoritmo de control MPC se aplica a un sistema aéreo con dos grados de libertad (TRMS). Finalmente, esta tesis también presenta y discute dos interpretaciones de la fiabilidad. Estas interpretaciones, llamadas instantánea y esperada, difieren en la forma en que se evalúa la fiabilidad y cómo se considera su evolución a lo largo del tiempo. Esta comparación se realiza en el marco del control HAC y estudia la fiabilidad del sistema en ambos enfoques.Postprint (published version

Model migration neural network for predicting battery aging trajectories

Accurate prediction of batteries’ future degradation is a key solution to relief users’ anxiety on battery lifespan and electric vehicle’s driving range. Technical challenges arise from the highly nonlinear dynamics of battery aging. In this paper, a feed-forward migration neural network is proposed to predict the batteries’ aging trajectories. Specifically, a base model that describes the capacity decay over time is first established from the existed battery aging dataset. This base model is then transformed by an input-output slope-and-bias-correction (SBC) method structure to capture the degradation of target cell. To enhance the model’s nonlinear transfer capability, the SBC-model is further integrated into a four-layer neural network, and easily trained via the gradient correlation algorithm. The proposed migration neural network is experimentally verified with four different commercial batteries. The predicted RMSEs are all lower than 2.5% when using only the first 30% of aging trajectories for neural network training. In addition, illustrative results demonstrate that a small size feed-forward neural network (down to 1-5-5-1) is sufficient for battery aging trajectory prediction

Models for Data Analysis in Accelerated Reliability Growth

This work develops new methodologies for analyzing accelerated testing data in the context of a reliability growth program for a complex multi-component system. Each component has multiple failure modes and the growth program consists of multiple test-fix stages with corrective actions applied at the end of each stage. The first group of methods considers time-to-failure data and test covariates for predicting the final reliability of the system. The time-to-failure of each failure mode is assumed to follow a Weibull distribution with rate parameter proportional to an acceleration factor. Acceleration factors are specific to each failure mode and test covariates. We develop a Bayesian methodology to analyze the data by assigning a prior distribution to each model parameter, developing a sequential Metropolis-Hastings procedure to sample the posterior distribution of the model parameters, and deriving closed form expressions to aggregate component reliability information to assess the reliability of the system. The second group of methods considers degradation data for predicting the final reliability of a system. First, we provide a non-parametric methodology for a single degradation process. The methodology utilizes functional data analysis to predict the mean time-to-degradation function and Gaussian processes to capture unit-specific deviations from the mean function. Second, we develop parametric model for a component with multiple dependent monotone degradation processes. The model considers random effects on the degradation parameters and a parametric life-stress relationship. The assumptions are that degradation increments follow an Inverse Gaussian process and a Copula function captures the dependency between them. We develop a Bayesian and a maximum likelihood procedure for estimating the model parameters using a two-stage process: (1) estimate the parameters of the degradation processes as if they were independent and (2) estimate the parameters of the Copula function using the estimated cumulative distribution function of the observed degradation increments as observed data. Simulation studies show the efficacy of the proposed methodologies for analyzing multi-stage reliability growth data

Enabling electronic prognostics using thermal data

Prognostics is a process of assessing the extent of deviation or degradation of a product from its expected normal operating condition, and then, based on continuous monitoring, predicting the future reliability of the product. By being able to determine when a product will fail, procedures can be developed to provide advanced warning of failures, optimize maintenance, reduce life cycle costs, and improve the design, qualification and logistical support of fielded and future systems. In the case of electronics, the reliability is often influenced by thermal loads, in the form of steady-state temperatures, power cycles, temperature gradients, ramp rates, and dwell times. If one can continuously monitor the thermal loads, in-situ, this data can be used in conjunction with precursor reasoning algorithms and stress-and-damage models to enable prognostics. This paper discusses approaches to enable electronic prognostics and provides a case study of prognostics using thermal data.Comment: Submitted on behalf of TIMA Editions (http://irevues.inist.fr/tima-editions

Degradation Modeling and RUL Prediction Using Wiener Process Subject to Multiple Change Points and Unit Heterogeneity

Degradation modeling is critical for health condition monitoring and remaining useful life prediction (RUL). The prognostic accuracy highly depends on the capability of modeling the evolution of degradation signals. In many practical applications, however, the degradation signals show multiple phases, where the conventional degradation models are often inadequate. To better characterize the degradation signals of multiple-phase characteristics, we propose a multiple change-point Wiener process as a degradation model. To take into account the between-unit heterogeneity, a fully Bayesian approach is developed where all model parameters are assumed random. At the offline stage, an empirical two-stage process is proposed for model estimation, and a cross-validation approach is adopted for model selection. At the online stage, an exact recursive model updating algorithm is developed for online individual model estimation, and an effective Monte Carlo simulation approach is proposed for RUL prediction. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through thorough simulation studies and real case study

Merging Data Sources to Predict Remaining Useful Life – An Automated Method to Identify Prognostic Parameters

The ultimate goal of most prognostic systems is accurate prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) of individual systems or components based on their use and performance. This class of prognostic algorithms is termed Degradation-Based, or Type III Prognostics. As equipment degrades, measured parameters of the system tend to change; these sensed measurements, or appropriate transformations thereof, may be used to characterize degradation. Traditionally, individual-based prognostic methods use a measure of degradation to make RUL estimates. Degradation measures may include sensed measurements, such as temperature or vibration level, or inferred measurements, such as model residuals or physics-based model predictions. Often, it is beneficial to combine several measures of degradation into a single parameter. Selection of an appropriate parameter is key for making useful individual-based RUL estimates, but methods to aid in this selection are absent in the literature. This dissertation introduces a set of metrics which characterize the suitability of a prognostic parameter. Parameter features such as trendability, monotonicity, and prognosability can be used to compare candidate prognostic parameters to determine which is most useful for individual-based prognosis. Trendability indicates the degree to which the parameters of a population of systems have the same underlying shape. Monotonicity characterizes the underlying positive or negative trend of the parameter. Finally, prognosability gives a measure of the variance in the critical failure value of a population of systems. By quantifying these features for a given parameter, the metrics can be used with any traditional optimization technique, such as Genetic Algorithms, to identify the optimal parameter for a given system. An appropriate parameter may be used with a General Path Model (GPM) approach to make RUL estimates for specific systems or components. A dynamic Bayesian updating methodology is introduced to incorporate prior information in the GPM methodology. The proposed methods are illustrated with two applications: first, to the simulated turbofan engine data provided in the 2008 Prognostics and Health Management Conference Prognostics Challenge and, second, to data collected in a laboratory milling equipment wear experiment. The automated system was shown to identify appropriate parameters in both situations and facilitate Type III prognostic model development