Changes in Spring Arrival Times: Climate change and the phenology of spring bird migration

Climate change and weather affect the phenology of bird migration; however, specific climatological factors associated with these observed effects have only recently been described. The relationship between local, regional, and global climate patterns and avian migration are increasingly important to understand due to the widespread, and potentially negative, implications (such as reduced fecundity) of rapid human induced climate change on bird populations. Migratory birds are under selective pressure to arrive at breeding areas at the optimal time to set up nesting territories and exploit seasonally abundant food resources, and because climate change has the potential to occur more rapidly than species can adapt to their migratory behavior, negative impacts to populations may occur as a result of climate change. Human-induced climate change is a driving factor in changing migration phenology, but the effects may be cofounded by endogenous controls and changing conditions among migratory routes. However, despite strong endogenous controls, long-distance migratory birds can alter the timing and rate of migration in response to a changing climate. In this thesis I explore the relationship between spring migration penology and climate. The literature review addresses the relationships between a changing climate and corresponding changes in avian migration phenology. I summarize the current state of understanding of how anthropogenic climate change is affecting spring migration. The literature documents a clear change in the spring migrant arrival dates over time. To more thoroughly explore these relationships I present the results of a quantitative data modeling exercise that models the variation of migration phenology of birds in Maine. A model selection approach was used to develop a predictive model of spring migrant arrival dates. I demonstrate that, as documented in literature, many passerine species in Maine are arriving increasingly earlier in the spring, as documented in the literature in other regions. Migration strategy, foraging behavior, and pressure from exogenous and endogenous controls affect migration phenology, but I demonstrate that anthropogenic climate change has caused an advancement of median spring arrival times in Maine

Turning up the heat: A conceptual model for understanding the migration and health in the context of global climate change.

BACKGROUND: The triangular relationship between climate change-related events, patterns of human migration and their implications for health is an important yet understudied issue. To improve understanding of this complex relationship, a comprehensive, interdisciplinary conceptual model will be useful. This paper investigates relationships between these factors and considers their impacts for affected populations globally. METHODS: A desk review of key literature was undertaken. An open-ended questionnaire consisting of 11 items was designed focusing on three themes: predicting population migration by understanding key variables, health implications, and suggestions on policy and research. After using purposive sampling we selected nine experts, reflecting diverse regional and professional backgrounds directly related to our research focus area. All responses were thematically analysed and key themes from the survey were synthesised to construct the conceptual model focusing on describing the relationship between global climate change, migration and health implications and a second model focusing on actionable suggestions for organisations working in the field, academia and policymakers. RESULTS: Key themes which constitute our conceptual model included: a description of migrant populations perceived to be at risk; health characteristics associated with different migratory patterns; health implications for both migrants and host populations; the responsibilities of global and local governance actors; and social and structural determinants of health. Less prominent themes were aspects related to slow-onset migratory patterns, voluntary stay, and voluntary migration. Actionable suggestions include an interdisciplinary and innovative approach to study the phenomenon for academicians, preparedness and globalized training and awareness for field organisations and migrant inclusive and climate sensitive approach for policymakers. CONCLUSION: Contrary to common narratives, participants framed the impacts of climate change-related events on migration patterns and their health implications as non-linear and indirect, comprising many interrelated individual, social, cultural, demographic, geographical, structural, and political determinants. An understanding of these interactions in various contexts is essential for risk reduction and preventative measures. The way forward broadly includes inclusive and equity-based health services, improved and faster administrative systems, less restrictive (im)migration policies, globally trained staff, efficient and accessible research, and improved emergency response capabilities. The focus should be to increase preventative and adaptation measures in the face of any environmental changes and respond efficiently to different phases of migration to aim for better "health for all and promote universal well-being" (WHO) (World Health Organization 1999)

Latin American and Caribbean Forests in the 2020s: Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities

This monograph presents expert assessments of four different facets of Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) forests at the start of the 2020s. In Chapter 1, Dan Nepstad and coauthors distill lessons from case studies of the application of various approaches to forest conservation and restoration in four countries: Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Peru. In Chapter 2, Carlos Nobre and coauthors examine the two-way links between forests and climate change. They summarize what we know about the effects of climate change on forests and human migration in LAC, and the effects of forest loss and degradation on global and regional climate change. In addition, they present case studies of some of these links for Brazil and Costa Rica. In Chapter 3, Brent Sohngen explores LAC forest management, including LAC trends in international trade in timber and bioenergy, sustainable forest management, nontimber forest products, illegal logging, property rights, and climate change as it affects managed forests. In addition, Dr. Sohngen summarizes an original analysis of future timber supply potential using the Global Timber Model. Finally, in Chapter 4, Simone Bauch presents an analysis of the IADBGs experience with forest projects over the past 13 years. Having reviewed IADBG documents on all 99 forest projects approved by bank during this period and interviewed 23 current and former bank staff, Dr. Bauch presents a brief recent history of IADBG forest projects, an overview of the major determinants of project development, and an analysis of trends in forest projects, including their number, funding, objectives, themes, and locations. An Introduction by the editor, Allen Blackman, discusses the broad issues these expert assessment address and summarizes their key findings

A simulation of the Neolithic transition in Western Eurasia

Farming and herding were introduced to Europe from the Near East and Anatolia; there are, however, considerable arguments about the mechanisms of this transition. Were it people who moved and outplaced the indigenous hunter- gatherer groups or admixed with them? Or was it just material and information that moved-the Neolithic Package-consisting of domesticated plants and animals and the knowledge of its use? The latter process is commonly referred to as cultural diffusion and the former as demic diffusion. Despite continuous and partly combined efforts by archaeologists, anthropologists, linguists, paleontologists and geneticists a final resolution of the debate has not yet been reached. In the present contribution we interpret results from the Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES), a mathematical model for regional sociocultural development embedded in the western Eurasian geoenvironmental context during the Holocene. We demonstrate that the model is able to realistically hindcast the expansion speed and the inhomogeneous space-time evolution of the transition to agropastoralism in Europe. GLUES, in contrast to models that do not resolve endogenous sociocultural dynamics, also describes and explains how and why the Neolithic advanced in stages. In the model analysis, we uncouple the mechanisms of migration and information exchange. We find that (1) an indigenous form of agropastoralism could well have arisen in certain Mediterranean landscapes, but not in Northern and Central Europe, where it depended on imported technology and material, (2) both demic diffusion by migration or cultural diffusion by trade may explain the western European transition equally well, (3) [...]Comment: Accepted Author Manuscript version accepted for publication in Journal of Archaeological Science. A definitive version will be subsequently published in the Journal of Archaological Scienc

Interacting regional-scale regime shifts for biodiversity and ecosystem services

Current trajectories of global change may lead to regime shifts at regional scales, driving coupled human–environment systems to highly degraded states in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. For business-as-usual socioeconomic development pathways, regime shifts are projected to occur within the next several decades, to be difficult to reverse, and to have regional- to global-scale impacts on human society. We provide an overview of ecosystem, socioeconomic, and biophysical mechanisms mediating regime shifts and illustrate how these interact at regional scales by aggregation, synergy, and spreading processes. We give detailed examples of interactions for terrestrial ecosystems of central South America and for marine and coastal ecosystems of Southeast Asia. This analysis suggests that degradation of biodiversity and ecosystem services over the twenty-first century could be far greater than was previously predicted. We identify key policy and management opportunities at regional to global scales to avoid these shifts