A Cross-Cohort Changepoint Model for Customer-Base Analysis

We introduce a new methodology that can capture and explain differences across a series of cohorts of new customers in a repeat-transaction setting. More specifically, this new framework, which we call a vector changepoint model, exploits the underlying regime structure in a sequence of acquired customer cohorts to make predictive statements about new cohorts for which the firm has little or no longitudinal transaction data. To accomplish this, we develop our model within a hierarchical Bayesian framework to uncover evidence of (latent) regime changes for each cohort-level parameter separately, while disentangling cross-cohort changes from calendar-time changes. Calibrating the model using multicohort donation data from a nonprofit organization, we find that holdout predictions for new cohorts using this model have greater accuracy—and greater diagnostic value—compared to a variety of strong benchmarks. Our modeling approach also highlights the perils of pooling data across cohorts without accounting for cross-cohort shifts, thus enabling managers to quantify their uncertainty about potential regime changes and avoid “old data” aggregation bias

Dynamic Poisson Factorization

Models for recommender systems use latent factors to explain the preferences and behaviors of users with respect to a set of items (e.g., movies, books, academic papers). Typically, the latent factors are assumed to be static and, given these factors, the observed preferences and behaviors of users are assumed to be generated without order. These assumptions limit the explorative and predictive capabilities of such models, since users' interests and item popularity may evolve over time. To address this, we propose dPF, a dynamic matrix factorization model based on the recent Poisson factorization model for recommendations. dPF models the time evolving latent factors with a Kalman filter and the actions with Poisson distributions. We derive a scalable variational inference algorithm to infer the latent factors. Finally, we demonstrate dPF on 10 years of user click data from arXiv.org, one of the largest repository of scientific papers and a formidable source of information about the behavior of scientists. Empirically we show performance improvement over both static and, more recently proposed, dynamic recommendation models. We also provide a thorough exploration of the inferred posteriors over the latent variables.Comment: RecSys 201

Analytical customer relationship management in retailing supported by data mining techniques

Tese de doutoramento. Engenharia Industrial e Gestão. Faculdade de Engenharia. Universidade do Porto. 201

A Novel Embedded Feature Selection Framework for Probabilistic Load Forecasting With Sparse Data via Bayesian Inference

With the modernization of power industry over recent decades, diverse smart technologies have been introduced to the power systems. Such transition has brought in a significant level of variability and uncertainty to the networks, resulting in less predictable electricity demand. In this regard, load forecasting stands in the breach and is even more challenging. Urgent needs have been raised from different sections, especially for probabilistic analysis for industrial applications. Hence, attentions have been shifted from point load forecasting to probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) in recent years. This research proposes a novel embedded feature selection method for PLF to deal with sparse features and thus to improve PLF performance. Firstly, the proposed method employs quantile regression to connect the predictor variables and each quantile of the distribution of the load. Thereafter, an embedded feature selection structure is incorporated to identify and select subsets of input features by introducing an inclusion indicator variable for each feature. Then, Bayesian inference is applied to the model with a sparseness favoring prior endowed over the inclusion indicator variables. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach is adopted to sample the parameters from the posterior. Finally, the samples are used to approximate the posterior distribution, which is achieved by using discrete formulas applied to these samples to approximate the integrals of interest. The proposed approach allows each quantile of the distribution of the dependent load to be affected by different sets of features, and also allows all features to take a chance to show their impact on the load. Consequently, this methodology leads to the improved estimation of more complex predictive densities. The proposed framework has been successfully applied to a linear model, the quantile linear regression, and been extended to improve the performance of a nonlinear model. Three case studies have been designed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The first case study performed on an open dataset validates that the proposed feature selection technique can improve the performance of PLF based on quantile linear regression and outperforms the selected comparable benchmarks. This case study does not consider any recency effect. The second case study further examines the impact of recency effect using another open dataset which contains historical load and weather records of 10 different regions. The third case study explores the potential of extending the application of the proposed framework for nonlinear models. In this case study, the proposed method is used as a wrapper approach and applied to a nonlinear model. The simulation results show that the proposed method has the best overall performance among all the tested methods with and without considering recency effect, and it could slightly improve the performance of other models when applied as a wrapper approach

User-oriented recommender systems in retail

User satisfaction is considered a key objective for all service provider platforms, regardless of the nature of the service, encompassing domains such as media, entertainment, retail, and information. While the goal of satisfying users is the same across different domains and services, considering domain-specific characteristics is of paramount importance to ensure users have a positive experience with a given system. User interaction data with a system is one of the main sources of data that facilitates achieving this goal. In this thesis, we investigate how to learn from domain-specific user interactions. We focus on recommendation as our main task, and retail as our main domain. We further explore the finance domain and the demand forecasting task as additional directions to understand whether our methodology and findings generalize to other tasks and domains. The research in this thesis is organized around the following dimensions: 1) Characteristics of multi-channel retail: we consider a retail setting where interaction data comes from both digital (i.e., online) and in-store (i.e., offline) shopping; 2) From user behavior to recommendation: we conduct extensive descriptive studies on user interaction log datasets that inform the design of recommender systems in two domains, retail and finance. Our key contributions in characterizing multi-channel retail are two-fold. First, we propose a neural model that makes use of sales in multiple shopping channels in order to improve the performance of demand forecasting in a target channel. Second, we provide the first study of user behavior in a multi-channel retail setting, which results in insights about the channel-specific properties of user behavior, and their effects on the performance of recommender systems. We make three main contributions in designing user-oriented recommender systems. First, we provide a large-scale user behavior study in the finance domain, targeted at understanding financial information seeking behavior in user interactions with company filings. We then propose domain-specific user-oriented filing recommender systems that are informed by the findings of the user behavior analysis. Second, we analyze repurchasing behavior in retail, specifically in the grocery shopping domain. We then propose a repeat consumption-aware neural recommender for this domain. Third, we focus on scalable recommendation in retail and propose an efficient recommender system that explicitly models users' personal preferences that are reflected in their purchasing history

User-oriented recommender systems in retail

User satisfaction is considered a key objective for all service provider platforms, regardless of the nature of the service, encompassing domains such as media, entertainment, retail, and information. While the goal of satisfying users is the same across different domains and services, considering domain-specific characteristics is of paramount importance to ensure users have a positive experience with a given system. User interaction data with a system is one of the main sources of data that facilitates achieving this goal. In this thesis, we investigate how to learn from domain-specific user interactions. We focus on recommendation as our main task, and retail as our main domain. We further explore the finance domain and the demand forecasting task as additional directions to understand whether our methodology and findings generalize to other tasks and domains. The research in this thesis is organized around the following dimensions: 1) Characteristics of multi-channel retail: we consider a retail setting where interaction data comes from both digital (i.e., online) and in-store (i.e., offline) shopping; 2) From user behavior to recommendation: we conduct extensive descriptive studies on user interaction log datasets that inform the design of recommender systems in two domains, retail and finance. Our key contributions in characterizing multi-channel retail are two-fold. First, we propose a neural model that makes use of sales in multiple shopping channels in order to improve the performance of demand forecasting in a target channel. Second, we provide the first study of user behavior in a multi-channel retail setting, which results in insights about the channel-specific properties of user behavior, and their effects on the performance of recommender systems. We make three main contributions in designing user-oriented recommender systems. First, we provide a large-scale user behavior study in the finance domain, targeted at understanding financial information seeking behavior in user interactions with company filings. We then propose domain-specific user-oriented filing recommender systems that are informed by the findings of the user behavior analysis. Second, we analyze repurchasing behavior in retail, specifically in the grocery shopping domain. We then propose a repeat consumption-aware neural recommender for this domain. Third, we focus on scalable recommendation in retail and propose an efficient recommender system that explicitly models users' personal preferences that are reflected in their purchasing history

Business Analytics for Non-profit Marketing and Online Advertising

Business analytics is facing formidable challenges in the Internet era. Data collected from business website often contain hundreds of millions of records; the goal of analysis frequently involves predicting rare events; and substantial noise in the form of errors or unstructured text cannot be interpreted automatically. It is thus necessary to identify pertinent techniques or new method to tackle these difficulties. Learning–to-rank, an emerging approach in information retrieval research has attracted our attention for its superiority in handling noisy data with rare events. In this dissertation, we introduce this technique to the marketing science community, apply it to predict customers’ responses to donation solicitations by the American Red Cross, and show that it outperforms traditional regression methods. We adapt the original learning-to-rank algorithm to better serve the needs of business applications relevant to such solicitations. The proposed algorithm is effective and efficient is predicting potential donors. Namely, through the adapted learning-to-rank algorithm, we are able to identify the most important 20% of potential donors, who would provide 80% of the actual donations. The latter half of the dissertation is dedicated to the application of business analytics to online advertising. The goal is to model visitors’ click-through probability on advertising video clips at a hedonic video website. We build a hierarchical linear model with latent variables and show its superiority in comparison to two other benchmark models. This research helps online business managers derive insights into the site visitors’ characteristics that affect their click-through propensity, and recommends managerial actions to increase advertising effectiveness

Evaluating Mobility Predictors in Wireless Networks for Improving Handoff and Opportunistic Routing

We evaluate mobility predictors in wireless networks. Handoff prediction in wireless networks has long been considered as a mechanism to improve the quality of service provided to mobile wireless users. Most prior studies, however, were based on theoretical analysis, simulation with synthetic mobility models, or small wireless network traces. We study the effect of mobility prediction for a large realistic wireless situation. We tackle the problem by using traces collected from a large production wireless network to evaluate several major families of handoff-location prediction techniques, a set of handoff-time predictors, and a predictor that jointly predicts handoff location and time. We also propose a fallback mechanism, which uses a lower-order predictor whenever a higher-order predictor fails to predict. We found that low-order Markov predictors, with our proposed fallback mechanisms, performed as well or better than the more complex and more space-consuming compression-based handoff-location predictors. Although our handoff-time predictor had modest prediction accuracy, in the context of mobile voice applications we found that bandwidth reservation strategies can benefit from the combined location and time handoff predictor, significantly reducing the call-drop rate without significantly increasing the call-block rate. We also developed a prediction-based routing protocol for mobile opportunistic networks. We evaluated and compared our protocol\u27s performance to five existing routing protocols, using simulations driven by real mobility traces. We found that the basic routing protocols are not practical for large-scale opportunistic networks. Prediction-based routing protocols trade off the message delivery ratio against resource usage and performed well and comparable to each other