A probabilistic multi-touch attribution model for online advertising

It is an important problem in computational advertising to study the effects of different advertising channels upon user conversions, as advertisers can use the discoveries to plan or optimize advertising campaigns. In this paper, we propose a novel Probabilistic Multi-Touch Attribution (PMTA) model which takes into account not only which ads have been viewed or clicked by the user but also when each such interaction occurred. Borrowing the techniques from survival analysis, we use the Weibull distribution to describe the observed conversion delay and use the hazard rate of conversion to measure the influence of an ad exposure. It has been shown by extensive experiments on a large real-world dataset that our proposed model is superior to state-of-the-art methods in both conversion prediction and attribution analysis. Furthermore, a surprising research finding obtained from this dataset is that search ads are often not the root cause of final conversions but just the consequence of previously viewed ads

Multi-Touch Attribution Based Budget Allocation in Online Advertising

Budget allocation in online advertising deals with distributing the campaign (insertion order) level budgets to different sub-campaigns which employ different targeting criteria and may perform differently in terms of return-on-investment (ROI). In this paper, we present the efforts at Turn on how to best allocate campaign budget so that the advertiser or campaign-level ROI is maximized. To do this, it is crucial to be able to correctly determine the performance of sub-campaigns. This determination is highly related to the action-attribution problem, i.e. to be able to find out the set of ads, and hence the sub-campaigns that provided them to a user, that an action should be attributed to. For this purpose, we employ both last-touch (last ad gets all credit) and multi-touch (many ads share the credit) attribution methodologies. We present the algorithms deployed at Turn for the attribution problem, as well as their parallel implementation on the large advertiser performance datasets. We conclude the paper with our empirical comparison of last-touch and multi-touch attribution-based budget allocation in a real online advertising setting.Comment: This paper has been published in ADKDD 2014, August 24, New York City, New York, U.S.

Display Advertising with Real-Time Bidding (RTB) and Behavioural Targeting

The most significant progress in recent years in online display advertising is what is known as the Real-Time Bidding (RTB) mechanism to buy and sell ads. RTB essentially facilitates buying an individual ad impression in real time while it is still being generated from a user’s visit. RTB not only scales up the buying process by aggregating a large amount of available inventories across publishers but, most importantly, enables direct targeting of individual users. As such, RTB has fundamentally changed the landscape of digital marketing. Scientifically, the demand for automation, integration and optimisation in RTB also brings new research opportunities in information retrieval, data mining, machine learning and other related fields. In this monograph, an overview is given of the fundamental infrastructure, algorithms, and technical solutions of this new frontier of computational advertising. The covered topics include user response prediction, bid landscape forecasting, bidding algorithms, revenue optimisation, statistical arbitrage, dynamic pricing, and ad fraud detection

Display Advertising with Real-Time Bidding (RTB) and Behavioural Targeting

The most significant progress in recent years in online display advertising is what is known as the Real-Time Bidding (RTB) mechanism to buy and sell ads. RTB essentially facilitates buying an individual ad impression in real time while it is still being generated from a user’s visit. RTB not only scales up the buying process by aggregating a large amount of available inventories across publishers but, most importantly, enables direct targeting of individual users. As such, RTB has fundamentally changed the landscape of digital marketing. Scientifically, the demand for automation, integration and optimisation in RTB also brings new research opportunities in information retrieval, data mining, machine learning and other related fields. In this monograph, an overview is given of the fundamental infrastructure, algorithms, and technical solutions of this new frontier of computational advertising. The covered topics include user response prediction, bid landscape forecasting, bidding algorithms, revenue optimisation, statistical arbitrage, dynamic pricing, and ad fraud detection

Machine learning applications in operations management and digital marketing

In this dissertation, I study how machine learning can be used to solve prominent problems in operations management and digital marketing. The primary motivation is to show that the application of machine learning can solve problems in ways that existing approaches cannot. In its entirety, this dissertation is a study of four problems—two in operations management and two in digital marketing—and develops solutions to these problems via data-driven approaches by leveraging machine learning. These four problems are distinct, and are presented in the form of individual self-containing essays. Each essay is the result of collaborations with industry partners and is of academic and practical importance. In some cases, the solutions presented in this dissertation outperform existing state-of-the-art methods, and in other cases, it presents a solution when no reasonable alternatives are available. The problems are: consumer debt collection (Chapter 3), contact center staffing and scheduling (Chapter 4), digital marketing attribution (Chapter 5), and probabilistic device matching (Chapters 6 and 7). An introduction of the thesis is presented in Chapter 1 and some basic machine learning concepts are described in Chapter 2