Probabilistic Matching: Causal Inference under Measurement Errors

The abundance of data produced daily from large variety of sources has boosted the need of novel approaches on causal inference analysis from observational data. Observational data often contain noisy or missing entries. Moreover, causal inference studies may require unobserved high-level information which needs to be inferred from other observed attributes. In such cases, inaccuracies of the applied inference methods will result in noisy outputs. In this study, we propose a novel approach for causal inference when one or more key variables are noisy. Our method utilizes the knowledge about the uncertainty of the real values of key variables in order to reduce the bias induced by noisy measurements. We evaluate our approach in comparison with existing methods both on simulated and real scenarios and we demonstrate that our method reduces the bias and avoids false causal inference conclusions in most cases.Comment: In Proceedings of International Joint Conference Of Neural Networks (IJCNN) 201

Event detection in location-based social networks

With the advent of social networks and the rise of mobile technologies, users have become ubiquitous sensors capable of monitoring various real-world events in a crowd-sourced manner. Location-based social networks have proven to be faster than traditional media channels in reporting and geo-locating breaking news, i.e. Osama Bin Laden’s death was first confirmed on Twitter even before the announcement from the communication department at the White House. However, the deluge of user-generated data on these networks requires intelligent systems capable of identifying and characterizing such events in a comprehensive manner. The data mining community coined the term, event detection , to refer to the task of uncovering emerging patterns in data streams . Nonetheless, most data mining techniques do not reproduce the underlying data generation process, hampering to self-adapt in fast-changing scenarios. Because of this, we propose a probabilistic machine learning approach to event detection which explicitly models the data generation process and enables reasoning about the discovered events. With the aim to set forth the differences between both approaches, we present two techniques for the problem of event detection in Twitter : a data mining technique called Tweet-SCAN and a machine learning technique called Warble. We assess and compare both techniques in a dataset of tweets geo-located in the city of Barcelona during its annual festivities. Last but not least, we present the algorithmic changes and data processing frameworks to scale up the proposed techniques to big data workloads.This work is partially supported by Obra Social “la Caixa”, by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation under contract (TIN2015-65316), by the Severo Ochoa Program (SEV2015-0493), by SGR programs of the Catalan Government (2014-SGR-1051, 2014-SGR-118), Collectiveware (TIN2015-66863-C2-1-R) and BSC/UPC NVIDIA GPU Center of Excellence.We would also like to thank the reviewers for their constructive feedback.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

A Survey of Location Prediction on Twitter

Locations, e.g., countries, states, cities, and point-of-interests, are central to news, emergency events, and people's daily lives. Automatic identification of locations associated with or mentioned in documents has been explored for decades. As one of the most popular online social network platforms, Twitter has attracted a large number of users who send millions of tweets on daily basis. Due to the world-wide coverage of its users and real-time freshness of tweets, location prediction on Twitter has gained significant attention in recent years. Research efforts are spent on dealing with new challenges and opportunities brought by the noisy, short, and context-rich nature of tweets. In this survey, we aim at offering an overall picture of location prediction on Twitter. Specifically, we concentrate on the prediction of user home locations, tweet locations, and mentioned locations. We first define the three tasks and review the evaluation metrics. By summarizing Twitter network, tweet content, and tweet context as potential inputs, we then structurally highlight how the problems depend on these inputs. Each dependency is illustrated by a comprehensive review of the corresponding strategies adopted in state-of-the-art approaches. In addition, we also briefly review two related problems, i.e., semantic location prediction and point-of-interest recommendation. Finally, we list future research directions.Comment: Accepted to TKDE. 30 pages, 1 figur

Latent Space Model for Multi-Modal Social Data

With the emergence of social networking services, researchers enjoy the increasing availability of large-scale heterogenous datasets capturing online user interactions and behaviors. Traditional analysis of techno-social systems data has focused mainly on describing either the dynamics of social interactions, or the attributes and behaviors of the users. However, overwhelming empirical evidence suggests that the two dimensions affect one another, and therefore they should be jointly modeled and analyzed in a multi-modal framework. The benefits of such an approach include the ability to build better predictive models, leveraging social network information as well as user behavioral signals. To this purpose, here we propose the Constrained Latent Space Model (CLSM), a generalized framework that combines Mixed Membership Stochastic Blockmodels (MMSB) and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) incorporating a constraint that forces the latent space to concurrently describe the multiple data modalities. We derive an efficient inference algorithm based on Variational Expectation Maximization that has a computational cost linear in the size of the network, thus making it feasible to analyze massive social datasets. We validate the proposed framework on two problems: prediction of social interactions from user attributes and behaviors, and behavior prediction exploiting network information. We perform experiments with a variety of multi-modal social systems, spanning location-based social networks (Gowalla), social media services (Instagram, Orkut), e-commerce and review sites (Amazon, Ciao), and finally citation networks (Cora). The results indicate significant improvement in prediction accuracy over state of the art methods, and demonstrate the flexibility of the proposed approach for addressing a variety of different learning problems commonly occurring with multi-modal social data.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, 2 table