Urban Terrorism: Strategies for Mitigating Terrorist Attacks Against the Domestic Urban Environment

This study identifies strategies to mitigate the impact of terrorist attacks against the domestic urban environment. It uses multiple qualitative research methods to identify patterns of attack used by terrorists against urban targets in the United States and suggest ways for policymakers to mitigate the effects of a terrorist attack through not only physical, but also organizational, political, legal, and social strategies. It uses case analysis, literature review, and interviews with experts in domestic terrorism preparedness to develop and suggest solutions. Terrorism, as with other criminal acts, can best be met by implementing strategies to mitigate the impact of this form of crime. Governments are simultaneously confronted with a rapidly growing number of potential terrorist targets that must be secured, and constrained by democratic principles from utilizing many technological devices to secure those targets. Creating an effective security system that protects against a wide range of terrorist attacks while it continues to afford a maximum exercise of democratic freedoms and privileges is a formidable task. Several broad, theory-based categories of defending urban spaces are considered. This study builds on past research and extends defensible space theory with careful consideration of the special challenges in dealing with terrorist attacks. The potential for terrorist attack is reviewed, and an understanding of who the domestic urban terrorists are, why they may attack the urban built environment, what might they attack, and what can be done about it is developed. Recommendations for public policy and future research are presented

Exploring the Historical Behavior of Islamic State Groups: Latent Class Analysis and K-Modes Clustering Approach

Research on terrorism has always gravitated around qualitative methods and statistical techniques. Technology plays an essential role in terrorism and counterterrorism analysis by providing collections of large databases in many fields and the computational power to analyze them. Machine learning has shown new methods that could complement standard and well-established methodological approaches. This work contributes to the bridging of machine learning with terrorism studies by analyzing data with a classic statistical method Latent Class Analysis (LCA), and a machine learning method (K-modes). More formally, this work presents a mixed approach to analyze and cluster records from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) referring to terrorist attacks belonging to the Islamic State. A diverse set of variables are considered, such as the type of weapons, targets, terrorist groups perpetrating the attacks, and geographic location. We identified three analysis periods by relying on a literature review and applied and contrasted LCA and K-Mode models for each period. This project aims to generate a record of how the periods were divided and identify the critical points for using the variables in the GTD database. Finally, we performed a data classification and generated an analysis for whoever requires it for these terrorist groups in the established periods.Este trabajo presenta un enfoque mixto para analizar y agrupar registros referentes a ataques terroristas pertenecientes al Estado Islámico, utilizando datos estructurados de la Global Terrorism Database (GTD) agrupados por ataques terroristas en función de diferentes variables a analizar, como el tipo de armas, objetivos que persigue el ataque, nombre del grupo terrorista, ubicación geográfica, entre otros; Para el posterior análisis de la información obtenida a través de artículos científicos que sustenten los hechos. A través de Kmodes se analizó la información obtenida, y se separó en grupos por características específicas y por bloques de años que permitieron analizar hechos históricos relevantes para la humanidad; Así, a través de los artículos mencionados anteriormente, se identificó la relación entre los datos ubicados en la base de datos GTD y los hechos.MaestríaMagíster en Ingeniería de Sistemas y ComputaciónContents 1 Introduction 7 1.1 Problem Description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 1.2 General and Specific Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1.2.1 General Objective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1.2.2 Specific Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1.3 Background and Justification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 1.4 Viability and scope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 1.5 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 1.5.1 Hypothesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 1.5.2 Methodological Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 1.5.2.1 Data Mining . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 1.5.2.2 Identify Criteria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1.5.2.3 Period Division . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1.5.3 Optimal Clusters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1.5.4 Implemented Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1.5.4.1 Latent Class Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 3 1.5.4.2 K-Modes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 1.5.4.3 Model Comparison . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 1.6 Project sustainability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 1.7 Administrative Aspects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 1.7.1 Necessary Resources: Physical, Logistic, and Human. . . . 18 1.7.2 Sources of Funding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 1.7.3 Schedule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 2 State of the Art Review 21 2.1 Terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 2.2 Studies Where LCA and K-Modes are Applied . . . . . . . . . . . 27 2.2.1 LCA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 2.2.2 K-Modes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 3 Theorethical Framework 32 3.1 Terrorism Study Techniques . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 3.2 Terrorism Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 3.3 Islamic Terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 4 Thesis Development 41 4.1 Global Terrorism Database . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 4.2 Period Division . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 4.2.1 Period 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 4.2.2 Period 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 4.2.3 Period 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 4.3 Data Processing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 4 4.4 Exploratory data analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 4.4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 4.4.2 Lashkar-e-Islam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 4.4.3 Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) . . . . . . . . . . 62 4.4.4 Al-Qaida . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 4.4.5 Jemaah Islamiyah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 4.5 Latent Class Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 4.5.1 Data Input . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 4.5.2 Command Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 4.6 K-Modes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 4.6.1 Input . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 4.6.2 Deploy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 4.7 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 4.7.1 Period 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 4.7.2 Period 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 5 Conclusions and Future Works 99 5.1 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 5.1.1 Data processing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 5.1.2 Third period . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 5.1.3 Groups evolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 5.1.4 LCA and K-Modes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 5.1.5 Method comparison . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 5.1.5.1 LCA List . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 5.1.5.2 K-Modes list . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

The Rise of iWar: Identity, Information, and the Individualization of Modern Warfare

During a decade of global counterterrorism operations and two extended counterinsurgency campaigns, the United States was confronted with a new kind of adversary. Without uniforms, flags, and formations, the task of identifying and targeting these combatants represented an unprecedented operational challenge for which Cold War era doctrinal methods were largely unsuited. This monograph examines the doctrinal, technical, and bureaucratic innovations that evolved in response to these new operational challenges. It discusses the transition from a conventionally focused, Cold War-era targeting process to one optimized for combating networks and conducting identity-based targeting. It analyzes the policy decisions and strategic choices that were the catalysts of this change and concludes with an in depth examination of emerging technologies that are likely to shape how this mode of warfare will be waged in the future.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1436/thumbnail.jp

An Operational Utility Assessment: Measuring the Effectiveness of the Joint Concept Technology Demonstration (JCTD), Joint Forces Protection Advance Security System (JFPASS)

Sponsored Report (for Acquisition Research Program)Planning modern military operations requires an accurate intelligence assessment of potential threats, combined with a detailed assessment of the physical theater of operations. This information can then be combined with equipment and manpower resources to set up a logistically supportable operation that mitigates as much of the enemy threat as possible. Given such a daunting challenge, military planners often turn to intelligent software agents to support their efforts. The success of the mission often hinges on the accuracy of these plans and the integrity of the security umbrella provided. The purpose of this project is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the Joint Forces Protection Advanced Security System (JFPASS) Joint Concept Technology Demonstration (JCTD) to better meet force-protection needs. It will also address the adaptability of this technology to an ever-changing enemy threat by the use of intelligent software. This project will collect and analyze data pertaining to the research, development, testing, and effectiveness of the JFPASS and develop an operational effectiveness model to quantify overall system performance.Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research ProgramApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Definicije ratnog nasilja i pomirenje u pričama preživjelih poslije rata u Bosni i Hercegovini

Previous research on violence during the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina have emphasized the importance of narratives without focusing on narratives mentioning war violence, but they have not analyzed stories on war violence that were the product of interpersonal interaction and meaning-making activity. The aim of this study is to fill this knowledge gap by analyzing the narratives of survivors of the war in northwestern Bosnia in the 1990s. The focus lies on analyzing interviewees’ description of war-time violence and also analyzing discursive patterns that contribute in constructing the phenomenon “war violence”. Analysis shows that the interpersonal interactions that caused the violence continue even after the violent situation is over. Recollections from perpetrators and those subjected to violence of the war do not exist only as verbal constructions in Bosnia of today. Stories about violent situations live their own lives after the war and continue being important to individuals and social life. Individuals who were expelled from northwestern Bosnia during the war in the 1990s are, in a legal sense, in a recognized violence-afflicted victim category. Several perpetrators were sentenced by the Hague Tribunal and the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina on War Crime. The crimes committed in northwestern Bosnia are qualified as genocide according to indictments against former Serbian leaders Radovan Karadžić and Ratko Mladić. All interviewees in this study experienced and survived the war in northwestern Bosnia. These individuals have a present, ongoing relation with these communities: Some live there permanently, and some spend their summers in northwestern Bosnia. Institutions in the administrative entity Republika Srpska (to which northwestern Bosnia now belong administratively) deny genocide, and this approach to war-time events becomes a central theme in future, post-war analysis of the phenomena “war violence”, and “reconciliation”. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the political elite’s denial of the systematic acts of violence during the war that have been conveyed by the Hague Tribunal, the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina on War Crime, and Bosnian media. The narratives in my empirical material seem to be influenced by (or coherent with) the rhetoric mediated in these fora. When informants emphasize extermination and the systematization of violence during the war, they produce and reproduce the image of a mutual struggle on a collective level. The aim of this struggle seems to be that the described acts of violence be recognized as genocide

A Survey of Social Network Forensics

Social networks in any form, specifically online social networks (OSNs), are becoming a part of our everyday life in this new millennium especially with the advanced and simple communication technologies through easily accessible devices such as smartphones and tablets. The data generated through the use of these technologies need to be analyzed for forensic purposes when criminal and terrorist activities are involved. In order to deal with the forensic implications of social networks, current research on both digital forensics and social networks need to be incorporated and understood. This will help digital forensics investigators to predict, detect and even prevent any criminal activities in different forms. It will also help researchers to develop new models / techniques in the future. This paper provides literature review of the social network forensics methods, models, and techniques in order to provide an overview to the researchers for their future works as well as the law enforcement investigators for their investigations when crimes are committed in the cyber space. It also provides awareness and defense methods for OSN users in order to protect them against to social attacks

I target with my little eye : drones and targeted killing under the scope of Ius in Bello

“I Target with My Little Eye; Drones and Targeted Killing under the Scope of Ius in Bello” Esta dissertação terá dois pontos que nos iremos focar: um, determinar a legalidade do uso de drones e das operações de “targeted killing” num contexto de conflitos armados; dois, pretendemos confrontar os requisitos teóricos com a atuação dos Estados, nomeadamente o programa de drones dos EUA, uma vez que é aquele que surge como o mais problemático. Nesta última parte, iremos abordar a prática de “Signature Strikes”, como uma das maiores críticas apontadas ao programa de drones americano, especialmente aquele levado a cabo pela CIA. No final pretendemos estabelecer duas ideias: a primeira, que DIH é capaz de regular a utilização de drones e as operações de “targeted killing”, sem ser necessário a criação de novos tratados ou convenções; e segundo, no que concerne esta questão, o problema não está nas regras existentes, mas no facto de a sua aplicação depender da vontade dos Estados. E parece-nos que os EUA não terão essa vontade.“I Target with My Little Eye; Drones and Targeted Killing under the Scope of Ius in Bello” This master dissertation has two major focuses: one, to determine the legality of drones and targeted killing operations in armed conflicts, subjected to International Humanitarian Law; second, we intend to confront the theoretical conditions that we established to State practice, namely the US drone program, since it has been the most problematic. For this last section, we will discuss the practice of Signature Strikes as a great critic to the US is how they’re conducting their drone program, specially the one carried out by the CIA. In the end we purpose to establish two things: the first is that IHL covers the use of drones and targeted killing operations, not requiring the creation of new treaties or conventions; and second, the need, when it comes to this subject, it’s not about the existing rules, but it is dependent on the Sates will to comply with them. And it seems that the US does not have that will

Inspiring a Mindset of Resilience

The Danish Institute of Fire and Security Technology (DBI) aims to increase the business resilience of Danish companies by developing a new business area within DBI. In making this new business area, DBI found that most Danish businesses, as well as DBI employees, are generally unfamiliar with the topic and do not understand its importance. Therefore, DBI needs to educate Danish businesses about business resilience in order to inspire them to become resilient. We developed informational materials to address knowledge gaps that we identified among DBI employees regarding business resilience. We proved the effectiveness of the informational materials by testing them on DBI employees