Impact of climate change and development scenarios on flow patterns in the Okavango River

This paper lays the foundation for the use of scenario modelling as a tool for integrated water resource management in the Okavango River basin. The Pitman hydrological model is used to assess the impact of various development and climate change scenarios on downstream river flow. The simulated impact on modelled river discharge of increased water use for domestic use, livestock, and informal irrigation (proportional to expected population increase) is very limited. Implementation of all likely potential formal irrigation schemes mentioned in available reports is expected to decrease the annual flow by 2% and the minimum monthly flow by 5%. The maximum possible impact of irrigation on annual average flow is estimated as 8%, with a reduction of minimum monthly flow by 17%. Deforestation of all areas within a 1 km buffer around the rivers is estimated to increase the flow by 6%. However, construction of all potential hydropower reservoirs in the basin may change the monthly mean flow distribution dramatically, although under the assumed operational rules, the impact of the dams is only substantial during wet years. The simulated impacts of climate change are considerable larger that those of the development scenarios (with exception of the high development scenario of hydropower schemes) although the results are sensitive to the choice of GCM and the IPCC SRES greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. The annual mean water flow predictions for the period 2020-2050 averaged over scenarios from all the four GCMs used in this study are close to the present situation for both the A2 and B2 GHG scenarios. For the 2050-2080 and 2070-2099 periods the all-GCM mean shows a flow decrease of 20% (14%) and 26% (17%) respectively for the A2 (B2) GHG scenarios. However, the uncertainty in the magnitude of simulated future changes remains high. The simulated effect of climate change on minimum monthly flow is proportionally higher

The clockfront and wavefront model revisited

The currently accepted interpretation of the clock and wavefront model of somitogenesis is that a posteriorly moving molecular gradient sequentially slows the rate of clock oscillations, resulting in a spatial readout of temporal oscillations. However, while molecular components of the clocks and wavefronts have now been identified in the pre-somitic mesoderm (PSM), there is not yet conclusive evidence demonstrating that the observed molecular wavefronts act to slow clock oscillations. Here we present an alternative formulation of the clock and wavefront model in which oscillator coupling, already known to play a key role in oscillator synchronisation, plays a fundamentally important role in the slowing of oscillations along the anterior–posterior (AP) axis. Our model has three parameters which can be determined, in any given species, by the measurement of three quantities: the clock period in the posterior PSM, somite length and the length of the PSM. A travelling wavefront, which slows oscillations along the AP axis, is an emergent feature of the model. Using the model we predict: (a) the distance between moving stripes of gene expression; (b) the number of moving stripes of gene expression and (c) the oscillator period profile along the AP axis. Predictions regarding the stripe data are verified using existing zebrafish data. We simulate a range of experimental perturbations and demonstrate how the model can be used to unambiguously define a reference frame along the AP axis. Comparing data from zebrafish, chick, mouse and snake, we demonstrate that: (a) variation in patterning profiles is accounted for by a single nondimensional parameter; the ratio of coupling strengths; and (b) the period profile along the AP axis is conserved across species. Thus the model is consistent with the idea that, although the genes involved in pattern propagation in the PSM vary, there is a conserved patterning mechanism across species

Wageningen University and Research centre : Your partner for sustainable development in the Arctic

This position paper explores new claims in the Arctic region. These claims are closely connected to new developments in the region such as climate change and the utilisation of natural resources. The aim of the paper is to illustrate how Wageningen University and Research centre contributes to sustainable development in the Arctic

Fiscal policy in a depressed economy : was there a ‘free lunch’ in 1930s’ Britain?

We report estimates of the fiscal multiplier for interwar Britain based on quarterly data and timeseries econometrics. We find that the government-expenditure multiplier was in the range 0.3 to 0.9 even during the period that interest rates were at the lower bound. The scope for a ‘Keynesian solution’to recession was much less than is generally supposed. In the later 1930s but not before Britain’s exit from the gold standard, there was a ‘fiscal free lunch’in that deficit-financed government spending would have improved public finances enough to pay for the interest on the extra debt

Stable carbon, nitrogen and sulphur isotope analysis of permafrost preserved human hair from rescue excavations (2009, 2010) at the precontact site of Nunalleq, Alaska

Acknowledgments This work was funded by an Arts and Humanities Research Council (AH/K006029/1) grant awarded to Rick Knecht, Kate Britton and Charlotta Hillerdal (Aberdeen); an AHRC-LabEx award (AH/N504543/1) to KB, RK, Keith Dobney (Liverpool) and Isabelle Sidéra (Nanterre); the Carnegie Trust to the Universities of Scotland (travel grant to KB); and the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology. The onsite collection of samples was carried out by staff and students from the University of Aberdeen, volunteer excavators and the residents of Quinhagak. We had logistical and planning support for fieldwork by the Qanirtuuq Incorporated, Quinhagak, Alaska, and the people of Quinhagak, who we also thank for sampling permissions. Special thanks to Warren Jones and Qanirtuuq Incorporated (especially Michael Smith and Lynn Church), and to all Nunalleq project team members, in Aberdeen and at other institutions, particularly Charlotta Hillerdal and Edouard Masson-Maclean (Aberdeen) for comments on earlier versions of this manuscript, and also to Véronique Forbes, Ana Jorge, Carly Ameen and Ciara Mannion (Aberdeen) for their inputs. Thanks also to Michelle Alexander (York). Finally, thank you to Ian Scharlotta (Alberta) for inviting us to contribute to this special issue, to the Editor, and to three anonymous reviewers, whose suggestions and recommended changes to an earlier version of this manuscript greatly improved the paper.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

On the anonymity risk of time-varying user profiles.

Websites and applications use personalisation services to profile their users, collect their patterns and activities and eventually use this data to provide tailored suggestions. User preferences and social interactions are therefore aggregated and analysed. Every time a user publishes a new post or creates a link with another entity, either another user, or some online resource, new information is added to the user profile. Exposing private data does not only reveal information about single users’ preferences, increasing their privacy risk, but can expose more about their network that single actors intended. This mechanism is self-evident in social networks where users receive suggestions based on their friends’ activities. We propose an information-theoretic approach to measure the differential update of the anonymity risk of time-varying user profiles. This expresses how privacy is affected when new content is posted and how much third-party services get to know about the users when a new activity is shared. We use actual Facebook data to show how our model can be applied to a real-world scenario.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version