30,946 research outputs found
Objective Bayes Factors for Gaussian Directed Acyclic Graphical Models
We propose an objective Bayesian method for the comparison of all Gaussian directed acyclic graphical models defined on a given set of variables. The method, which is based on the notion of fractional Bayes factor, requires a single default (typically improper) prior on the space of unconstrained covariance matrices, together with a prior sample size hyper-parameter, which can be set to its minimal value. We show that our approach produces genuine Bayes factors. The implied prior on the concentration matrix of any complete graph is a data-dependent Wishart distribution, and this in turn guarantees that Markov equivalent graphs are scored with the same marginal likelihood. We specialize our results to the smaller class of Gaussian decomposable undirected graphical models, and show that in this case they coincide with those recently obtained using limiting versions of hyper-inverse Wishart distributions as priors on the graph-constrained covariance matrices.Bayes factor; Bayesian model selection; Directed acyclic graph; Exponential family; Fractional Bayes factor; Gaussian graphical model; Objective Bayes;Standard conjugate prior; Structural learning. network; Stochastic search; Structural learning.
Projecting Ising Model Parameters for Fast Mixing
Inference in general Ising models is difficult, due to high treewidth making
tree-based algorithms intractable. Moreover, when interactions are strong,
Gibbs sampling may take exponential time to converge to the stationary
distribution. We present an algorithm to project Ising model parameters onto a
parameter set that is guaranteed to be fast mixing, under several divergences.
We find that Gibbs sampling using the projected parameters is more accurate
than with the original parameters when interaction strengths are strong and
when limited time is available for sampling.Comment: Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 201
Three Puzzles on Mathematics, Computation, and Games
In this lecture I will talk about three mathematical puzzles involving
mathematics and computation that have preoccupied me over the years. The first
puzzle is to understand the amazing success of the simplex algorithm for linear
programming. The second puzzle is about errors made when votes are counted
during elections. The third puzzle is: are quantum computers possible?Comment: ICM 2018 plenary lecture, Rio de Janeiro, 36 pages, 7 Figure
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