The role of learning on industrial simulation design and analysis

The capability of modeling real-world system operations has turned simulation into an indispensable problemsolving methodology for business system design and analysis. Today, simulation supports decisions ranging from sourcing to operations to finance, starting at the strategic level and proceeding towards tactical and operational levels of decision-making. In such a dynamic setting, the practice of simulation goes beyond being a static problem-solving exercise and requires integration with learning. This article discusses the role of learning in simulation design and analysis motivated by the needs of industrial problems and describes how selected tools of statistical learning can be utilized for this purpose

The Response Time Variability Problem: a review

Preprin

Exact and non-exact procedures for solving the response time variability problem (RTVP)

Premi extraordinari doctorat curs 2009-2010, àmbit d’Enginyeria IndustrialCuando se ha de compartir un recurso entre demandas (de productos, clientes, tareas, etc.) competitivas que requieren una atención regular, es importante programar el derecho al acceso del recurso de alguna forma justa de manera que cada producto, cliente o tarea reciba un acceso al recurso proporcional a su demanda relativa al total de las demandas competitivas. Este tipo de problemas de secuenciación pueden ser generalizados bajo el siguiente esquema. Dados n símbolos, cada uno con demanda di (i = 1,...,n), se ha de generar una secuencia justa o regular donde cada símbolo aparezca di veces. No existe una definición universal de justicia, ya que puede haber varias métricas razonables para medirla según el problema específico considerado. En el Problema de Variabilidad en el Tiempo de Respuesta, o Response Time Variability Problem (RTVP) en inglés, la injusticia o irregularidad de una secuencia es medida como la suma, para todos los símbolos, de sus variabilidades en las distancias en que las copias de cada símbolo son secuenciados. Así, el objetivo del RTVP es encontrar la secuencia que minimice la variabilidad total. En otras palabras, el objetivo del RTVP es minimizar la variabilidad de los instantes en que los productos, clientes o trabajos reciben el recurso necesario. Este problema aparece en una amplia variedad de situaciones de la vida real; entre otras, secuenciación en líneas de modelo-mixto bajo just-in-time (JIT), en asignación de recursos en sistemas computacionales multi-hilo como sistemas operativos, servidores de red y aplicaciones mutimedia, en el mantenimiento periódico de maquinaria, en la recolección de basura, en la programación de comerciales en televisión y en el diseño de rutas para agentes comerciales con múltiples visitas a un mismo cliente. En algunos de estos problemas la regularidad no es una propiedad deseable por sí misma, si no que ayuda a minimizar costes. De hecho, cuando los costes son proporcionales al cuadrado de las distancias, el problema de minimizar costes y el RTVP son equivalentes. El RTVP es muy difícil de resolver (se ha demostrado que es NP-hard). El tamaño de las instancias del RTVP que pueden ser resueltas óptimamente con el mejor método exacto existente en la literatura tiene un límite práctico de 40 unidades. Por otro lado, los métodos no exactos propuestos en la literatura para resolver instancias mayores consisten en heurísticos simples que obtienen soluciones rápidamente, pero cuya calidad puede ser mejorada. Por tanto, los métodos de resolución existentes en la literatura son insuficientes. El principal objetivo de esta tesis es mejorar la resolución del RTVP. Este objetivo se divide en los dos siguientes subobjetivos : 1) aumentar el tamaño de las instancias del RTVP que puedan ser resueltas de forma óptima en un tiempo de computación práctico, y 2) obtener de forma eficiente soluciones lo más cercanas a las óptimas para instancias mayores. Además, la tesis tiene los dos siguientes objetivos secundarios: a) investigar el uso de metaheurísticos bajo el esquema de los hiper-heurísticos, y b) diseñar un procedimiento sistemático y automático para fijar los valores adecuados a los parámetros de los algoritmos. Se han desarrollado diversos métodos para alcanzar los objetivos anteriormente descritos. Para la resolución del RTVP se ha diseñado un método exacto basado en la técnica branch and bound y el tamaño de las instancias que pueden resolverse en un tiempo práctico se ha incrementado a 55 unidades. Para instancias mayores, se han diseñado métodos heurísticos, metaheurísticos e hiper-heurísticos, los cuales pueden obtener soluciones óptimas o casi óptimas rápidamente. Además, se ha propuesto un procedimiento sistemático y automático para tunear parámetros que aprovecha las ventajas de dos procedimientos existentes (el algoritmo Nelder & Mead y CALIBRA).When a resource must be shared between competing demands (of products, clients, jobs, etc.) that require regular attention, it is important to schedule the access right to the resource in some fair manner so that each product, client or job receives a share of the resource that is proportional to its demand relative to the total of the competing demands. These types of sequencing problems can be generalized under the following scheme. Given n symbols, each one with demand di (i = 1,...,n), a fair or regular sequence must be built in which each symbol appears di times. There is not a universal definition of fairness, as several reasonable metrics to measure it can be defined according to the specific considered problem. In the Response Time Variability Problem (RTVP), the unfairness or the irregularity of a sequence is measured by the sum, for all symbols, of their variabilities in the positions at which the copies of each symbol are sequenced. Thus, the objective of the RTVP is to find the sequence that minimises the total variability. In other words, the RTVP objective is to minimise the variability in the instants at which products, clients or jobs receive the necessary resource. This problem appears in a broad range of real-world areas. Applications include sequencing of mixed-model assembly lines under just-in-time (JIT), resource allocation in computer multi-threaded systems such as operating systems, network servers and media-based applications, periodic machine maintenance, waste collection, scheduling commercial videotapes for television and designing of salespeople's routes with multiple visits, among others. In some of these problems the regularity is not a property desirable by itself, but it helps to minimise costs. In fact, when the costs are proportional to the square of the distances, the problem of minimising costs and the RTVP are equivalent. The RTVP is very hard to be solved (it has been demonstrated that it is NP-hard). The size of the RTVP instances that can be solved optimally with the best exact method existing in the literature has a practical limit of 40 units. On the other hand, the non-exact methods proposed in the literature to solve larger instances are simple heuristics that obtains solutions quickly, but the quality of the obtained solutions can be improved. Thus, the solution methods existing in the literature are not enough to solve the RTVP. The main objective of this thesis is to improve the resolution of the RTVP. This objective is split in the two following sub-objectives: 1) to increase the size of the RTVP instances that can be solved optimally in a practical computing time; and 2) to obtain efficiently near-optimal solutions for larger instances. Moreover, the thesis has the following two secondary objectives: a) to research the use of metaheuristics under the scheme of hyper-heuristics, and b) to design a systematic, hands-off procedure to set the suitable values of the algorithm parameters. To achieve the aforementioned objectives, several procedures have been developed. To solve the RTVP an exact procedure based on the branch and bound technique has been designed and the size of the instances that can be solved in a practical time has been increased to 55 units. For larger instances, heuristic, heuristic, metaheuristic and hyper-heuristic procedures have been designed, which can obtain optimal or near-optimal solutions quickly. Moreover, a systematic, hands-off fine-tuning method that takes advantage of the two existing ones (Nelder & Mead algorithm and CALIBRA) has been proposed.Award-winningPostprint (published version

Computation of Electromagnetic Fields Scattered From Objects With Uncertain Shapes Using Multilevel Monte Carlo Method

Computational tools for characterizing electromagnetic scattering from objects with uncertain shapes are needed in various applications ranging from remote sensing at microwave frequencies to Raman spectroscopy at optical frequencies. Often, such computational tools use the Monte Carlo (MC) method to sample a parametric space describing geometric uncertainties. For each sample, which corresponds to a realization of the geometry, a deterministic electromagnetic solver computes the scattered fields. However, for an accurate statistical characterization the number of MC samples has to be large. In this work, to address this challenge, the continuation multilevel Monte Carlo (CMLMC) method is used together with a surface integral equation solver. The CMLMC method optimally balances statistical errors due to sampling of the parametric space, and numerical errors due to the discretization of the geometry using a hierarchy of discretizations, from coarse to fine. The number of realizations of finer discretizations can be kept low, with most samples computed on coarser discretizations to minimize computational cost. Consequently, the total execution time is significantly reduced, in comparison to the standard MC scheme.Comment: 25 pages, 10 Figure

A nonparametric approach for model individualization in an artificial pancreas

The identification of patient-tailored linear time invariant glucose-insulin models is investigated for type 1 diabetic patients, that are characterized by a substantial inter-subject variability. The individualized linear models are identified by considering a novel kernel-based nonparametric approach and are compared with a linear time invariant average model in terms of prediction performance by means of the coefficient of determination, fit, positive and negative max errors, and root mean squared error. Model identification and validation are based on in-silico data collected from the adult virtual population of the UVA/Padova simulator. The data generation involves a protocol designed to produce a sufficient input excitation without compromising patient safety, compatible also with real life scenarios. The identified models are exploited to synthesize an individualized Model Predictive Controller (MPC) for each patient, which is used in an Artificial Pancreas to maintain the blood glucose concentration within an euglycemic range. The MPC used in several clinical studies, synthesized on the basis of a non-individualized average linear time invariant model, is also considered as reference. The closed-loop control performance is evaluated in an in-silico study on the adult virtual population of the UVA/Padova simulator in a perturbed scenario, in which the MPC is blind to random variations of insulin sensitivity in each virtual patient. © 2015, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Positive multi-criteria models in agriculture for energy and environmental policy analysis

Environmental consciousness and accompanying actions have been paralleled by the evolution of multi-criteria methods which have provided tools to assist policy makers in discovering compromises in order to muddle through. This paper recalls the development of multi-criteria methods in agriculture, focusing on their contribution to produce input or output functions useful for environmental and/or energy policy. Response curves generated by MC models can more accurately predict farmers’ response to market and policy parameters compared with classic profit maximizing behavior. Concrete examples from recent literature illustrate the above statements and ideas for further research are provided.multi-criteria models, interval programming, supply curves, bio-energy, policy analysis