Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation of ERT Data for Numerical Modeling of Seawater Intrusion in a Laboratory Experiment

Seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers is a worldwide problem exacerbated by aquifer overexploitation and climate changes. To limit the deterioration of water quality caused by saline intrusion, research studies are needed to identify and assess the performance of possible countermeasures, e.g., underground barriers. Within this context, numerical models are fundamental to fully understand the process and for evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed solutions to contain the saltwater wedge; on the other hand, they are typically affected by uncertainty on hydrogeological parameters, as well as initial and boundary conditions. Data assimilation methods such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) represent promising tools that can reduce such uncertainties. Here, we present an application of the EnKF to the numerical modeling of a laboratory experiment where seawater intrusion was reproduced in a specifically designed sandbox and continuously monitored with electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). Combining EnKF and the SUTRA model for the simulation of density-dependent flow and transport in porous media, we assimilated the collected ERT data by means of joint and sequential assimilation approaches. In the joint approach, raw ERT data (electrical resistances) are assimilated to update both salt concentration and soil parameters, without the need for an electrical inversion. In the sequential approach, we assimilated electrical conductivities computed from a previously performed electrical inversion. Within both approaches, we suggest dual-step update strategies to minimize the effects of spurious correlations in parameter estimation. The results show that, in both cases, ERT data assimilation can reduce the uncertainty not only on the system state in terms of salt concentration, but also on the most relevant soil parameters, i.e., saturated hydraulic conductivity and longitudinal dispersivity. However, the sequential approach is more prone to filter inbreeding due to the large number of observations assimilated compared to the ensemble size

Variable-Density Flow Processes in Porous Media On Small, Medium and Regional Scales

Nowadays society strongly depends on its available resources and the long term stability of the surrounding ecosystem. Numerical modelling has become a general standard for evaluating past, current or future system states for a large number of applications supporting decision makers in proper management. In order to ensure the correct representation of the investigated processes and results of a simulation, verification examples (benchmarks), that are based on observation data or analytical solutions, are utilized to evaluate the numerical modelling tool. In many parts of the world, groundwater is an important resource for freshwater. While it is not only limited in quantity, subsurface water bodies are often in danger of contamination from various natural or anthropogenic sources. Especially in arid regions, marine saltwater intrusion poses a major threat to groundwater aquifers which mostly are the exclusive source of freshwater in these dry climates. In contrast to common numerical groundwater modelling, density-driven flow and mass transport have to be considered as vital processes in the system and in scenario simulations for fresh-saltwater interactions. In the beginning of this thesis, the capabilities of the modelling tool OpenGeoSys are verified with selected benchmarks to represent the relevant non-linear process coupling. Afterwards, variable-density application and process studies on different scales are presented. Application studies comprehend regional groundwater modelling of a coastal aquifer system extensively used for agricultural irrigation, as well as hydro-geological model development and parametrization. In two process studies, firstly, a novel method to model gelation of a solute in porous media is developed and verified on small scale laboratory observation data, and secondly, investigations of thermohaline double-diffusive Rayleigh regimes on medium scale are carried out. With the growing world population and, thus, increasing pressure on non-renewable resources, intelligent management strategies intensify demand for potent simulation tools and development of novel methods. In that way, this thesis highlights not only OpenGeoSys’ potential of density-dependent process modelling, but the comprehensive importance of variable-density flow and transport processes connecting, both, avant-garde scientific research, and real-world application challenges.:Abstract Zusammenfassung Nomenclature List of Figures List of Tables I Background and Fundamentals 1 Introduction 1.1 Motivation 1.2 Structure of the Thesis 1.3 Variable-Density Flow in Literature 2 Theory and Methods 2.1 Governing Equations 2.2 Fluid Properties 2.3 Modelling and Visualization Tools 3 Benchmarks 3.1 Steady-state Unconfined Groundwater Table 3.2 Theis Transient Pumping Test 3.3 Transient Saltwater Intrusion 3.4 Development of a Freshwater Lens II Applications 4 Extended Inverse Distance Weighting Interpolation 4.1 Motivation 4.2 Extension of IDW Method 4.3 Artificial Test and Regional Scale Application 4.4 Summary and Conclusions 5 Modelling Transient Saltwater Intrusion 5.1 Background and Motivation 5.2 Methods and Model Setup 5.3 Simulation Results and Discussion 5.4 Summary, Conclusion and Outlook 6 Gelation of a Dense Fluid 6.1 Motivation 6.2 Methods and Model Setup 6.3 Results and Conclusions 7 Delineating Double-Diffusive Rayleigh Regimes 7.1 Background and Motivation 7.2 Methods and Model Setup 7.3 Results 7.4 Conclusions and Outlook III Summary and Conclusions 8 Important Achievements 9 Conclusions and Outlook Bibliography Publications Acknowledgements Appendi

Uncertainty quantification in coastal aquifers using the multilevel Monte Carlo method

We consider a class of density-driven flow problems. We are particularly interested in the problem of the salinization of coastal aquifers. We consider the Henry saltwater intrusion problem with uncertain porosity, permeability, and recharge parameters as a test case. The reason for the presence of uncertainties is the lack of knowledge, inaccurate measurements, and inability to measure parameters at each spatial or time location. This problem is nonlinear and time-dependent. The solution is the salt mass fraction, which is uncertain and changes in time. Uncertainties in porosity, permeability, recharge, and mass fraction are modeled using random fields. This work investigates the applicability of the well-known multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for such problems. The MLMC method can reduce the total computational and storage costs. Moreover, the MLMC method runs multiple scenarios on different spatial and time meshes and then estimates the mean value of the mass fraction. The parallelization is performed in both the physical space and stochastic space. To solve every deterministic scenario, we run the parallel multigrid solver ug4 in a black-box fashion. We use the solution obtained from the quasi-Monte Carlo method as a reference solution.Comment: 24 pages, 3 tables, 11 figure

Hydrogeophysical model calibration and uncertainty analysis via full integration of PEST/PEST++ and COMSOL

Acknowledgments Andrés González Quirós is the recipient of a Royal Society – Newton International Fellowship (NIF\R1\182210), hosted at the University of Aberdeen. We thank the Scottish Funding Council/Scottish Alliance for Geoscience, Environment and Society for seed funding the development of the project. We would also like to thank the Associate Editor Tim Green, Thomas Hermans, Landon Halloran and one anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions in the revision process.Peer reviewedPostprin

Controls on groundwater and surface water salinity in coastal Bangladesh

Salinity in surface water and groundwater is a pervasive issue along coastal Bangladesh, a low-lying megadelta where around 35 million people live. A large amount of this land has been reclaimed using a network of low-lying polders. The area is particularly susceptible to flooding from tropical cyclones. Cyclone induced storm surges coupled with the low-lying reclaimed land can breach polder embankments and cause extensive flooding, resulting in excess salinity in soil and surface water. Salinity in drinking water is known to cause adverse effects on human health. It is, therefore, important to identify the controls surface water and groundwater salinity in these coastal areas. A fully coupled surface-subsurface model of a coastal polder by using HydroGeo- Sphere is developed to investigate the impact of storm surge events on groundwater salinity. The hydrological parameters were calibrated from the fieldwork at a field site in the Dacope Upazila, in the southwest coastal region of Bangladesh. The results suggest that sudden salt fluxes in the pond are likely to build up salinity in the underlying sediment. A set of scenarios were considered: a cyclone induced storm surge during both the monsoon and dry seasons, and both with and without remediation. The results show that surge events caused a rise in salinity in drinking water and near-surface groundwater. However, rapid remediation after a surge event could help mitigate the severity of the impact on drinking water. This provides suggestions for water resources management planning. The 2D cross-section model was extended to the 3D model to improve the understanding of the salinity process. Climate change scenarios were then used to evaluate the effects of episodic cyclone surges on shallow groundwater salinity. This study suggests that more frequent cyclones would worsen not only salinity in near-surface groundwater but lateral saltwater intrusion at the shallow or deep aquifers.Open Acces

Characterization of a Shallow Coastal Aquifer in the Framework of a Subsurface Storage and Soil Aquifer Treatment Project using Electrical Resistivity Tomography (Port de la Selva, Spain)

Water percolation through infiltration ponds is creating significant synergies for the broad adoption of water reuse as an additional non-conventional water supply. Despite the apparent simplicity of the soil aquifer treatment (SAT) approaches, the complexity of site-specific hydro-geological conditions and the processes occurring at various scales require an exhaustive under-standing of the system's response. The non-saturated zone and underlying aquifers cannot be considered as a black box, nor accept its characterization from few boreholes not well distribut-ed over the area to be investigated. The electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is a non-invasive technology, highly responsive to geological heterogeneities that has demonstrated useful to provide the detailed subsurface information required for groundwater modeling. The relation-ships between the electrical resistivity of the alluvial sediments and the bedrock and the differ-ence in salinity of groundwater, highlight the potential of geophysical methods over other more costly subsurface exploration techniques. The results of our research show that ERT coupled with implicit modeling tools provides information that can significantly help to identify aquifer geometry and characterize the saltwater intrusion of shallow alluvial aquifers. The proposed approaches could improve the reliability of groundwater models and the commitment of stakeholders to the benefits of SAT procedures

Modeling groundwater with ocean and river interaction

We develop and implement the groundwater model, Saturated/Unsaturated Flow and Transport in 3D (SUFT3D), to integrate water quantity/quality data and simulations with models of other hydrologic cycle components, namely, rivers and the ocean. This work was done as part of the Sea Air Land Modeling Operational Network (SALMON) project supported by the IBM International Foundation through its Environmental Research Program. The first research steps, presented here, address the simulation of typical hydrologic conditions to demonstrate SUFT3D's effectiveness and accuracy. The theory behind the modeling of seawater intrusion and groundwater-river interaction is summarized along with the numerical methods and characteristics of SUFT3D. The code was applied to different, increasingly complex scenarios: confined to unconfined conditions, local to regional scale, homogeneous to increasing heterogeneity, two- to three-dimensional. Of particular interest were the impacts of different boundary conditions and influence of river interactions on seawater intrusion. Results are illustrated, discussed, and compared, when possible, to those in the literature. Simulating groundwater exchange between both the river and the ocean has provided interesting results that better depict the dynamics of flow and transport in coastal zone groundwater systems

Spatial characterization of the seawater upconing process in a coastal Mediterranean aquifer (Plana de Castellón, Spain): evolution and controls

In this contribution, we describe the formation and evolution of the upconing process in a Mediterranean coastal aquifer. The study area has experienced severe salinization over the last 40 years because of intensive exploitation of groundwater. We used historical and current records of piezometric levels and chloride concentrations to trace the development of the salinization of the aquifer. We defined the 3D shape of the saline wedge from the spatial distribution of chloride concentrations and vertical well logs of electrical conductivity using monitoring network data. Upconing first appeared in the early 90s and has continued until the present day. In this study, we examined the intensity of the upconing process. Dry periods and the associated increases in pumping caused the advance of seawater intrusion. The sharp reduction in groundwater withdrawals over the last 10 years has caused the saline wedge to move backwards, although the ongoing pumping and the climate conditions mean that this retreat is quite slow

Analysis of the saltwater wedge in a coastal karst aquifer with a double conduit network, numerical simulations and sensitivity analysis

We investigate the long-distance salinity in a dual permeability coastal karst aquifer with a double conduit network using a three-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow and multispecies transport SEAWAT model. Sensitivity analyses were used to evaluate the impact of the parameters and boundary conditions on the modeling saltwater wedge in a karstic aquifer situated in the Cuban land territory, including hydraulic conductivity, vertical anisotropy and salinity concentration; both in the conduits network and the fractured medium. These analyses indicated that hydraulic conductivity of the fractured medium and salt concentration were the ones that have a stronger effect on saltwater intrusion in a karstic aquifer. We also show results of the three-dimensional numerical simulations on groundwater salinity for different scenarios with the variabilities of the important parameters and compare results with electric conductivity profiles measured in a well