8 research outputs found

    Forecasting: theory and practice

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    Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases

    Forecasting: theory and practice

    Get PDF
    Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

    Automated anomaly recognition in real time data streams for oil and gas industry.

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    There is a growing demand for computer-assisted real-time anomaly detection - from the identification of suspicious activities in cyber security, to the monitoring of engineering data for various applications across the oil and gas, automotive and other engineering industries. To reduce the reliance on field experts' knowledge for identification of these anomalies, this thesis proposes a deep-learning anomaly-detection framework that can help to create an effective real-time condition-monitoring framework. The aim of this research is to develop a real-time and re-trainable generic anomaly-detection framework, which is capable of predicting and identifying anomalies with a high level of accuracy - even when a specific anomalous event has no precedent. Machine-based condition monitoring is preferable in many practical situations where fast data analysis is required, and where there are harsh climates or otherwise life-threatening environments. For example, automated conditional monitoring systems are ideal in deep sea exploration studies, offshore installations and space exploration. This thesis firstly reviews studies about anomaly detection using machine learning. It then adopts the best practices from those studies in order to propose a multi-tiered framework for anomaly detection with heterogeneous input sources, which can deal with unseen anomalies in a real-time dynamic problem environment. The thesis then applies the developed generic multi-tiered framework to two fields of engineering: data analysis and malicious cyber attack detection. Finally, the framework is further refined based on the outcomes of those case studies and is used to develop a secure cross-platform API, capable of re-training and data classification on a real-time data feed

    Sequential pattern mining with uncertain data

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    In recent years, a number of emerging applications, such as sensor monitoring systems, RFID networks and location based services, have led to the proliferation of uncertain data. However, traditional data mining algorithms are usually inapplicable in uncertain data because of its probabilistic nature. Uncertainty has to be carefully handled; otherwise, it might significantly downgrade the quality of underlying data mining applications. Therefore, we extend traditional data mining algorithms into their uncertain versions so that they still can produce accurate results. In particular, we use a motivating example of sequential pattern mining to illustrate how to incorporate uncertain information in the process of data mining. We use possible world semantics to interpret two typical types of uncertainty: the tuple-level existential uncertainty and the attribute-level temporal uncertainty. In an uncertain database, it is probabilistic that a pattern is frequent or not; thus, we define the concept of probabilistic frequent sequential patterns. And various algorithms are designed to mine probabilistic frequent patterns efficiently in uncertain databases. We also implement our algorithms on distributed computing platforms, such as MapReduce and Spark, so that they can be applied in large scale databases. Our work also includes uncertainty computation in supervised machine learning algorithms. We develop an artificial neural network to classify numeric uncertain data; and a Naive Bayesian classifier is designed for classifying categorical uncertain data streams. We also propose a discretization algorithm to pre-process numerical uncertain data, since many classifiers work with categoric data only. And experimental results in both synthetic and real-world uncertain datasets demonstrate that our methods are effective and efficient

    Towards a big data reference architecture

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    A Parallel Algorithm for Datacleansing in Incomplete Information Systems Using MapReduce

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    Multimodal Approach for Big Data Analytics and Applications

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    The thesis presents multimodal conceptual frameworks and their applications in improving the robustness and the performance of big data analytics through cross-modal interaction or integration. A joint interpretation of several knowledge renderings such as stream, batch, linguistics, visuals and metadata creates a unified view that can provide a more accurate and holistic approach to data analytics compared to a single standalone knowledge base. Novel approaches in the thesis involve integrating multimodal framework with state-of-the-art computational models for big data, cloud computing, natural language processing, image processing, video processing, and contextual metadata. The integration of these disparate fields has the potential to improve computational tools and techniques dramatically. Thus, the contributions place multimodality at the forefront of big data analytics; the research aims at mapping and under- standing multimodal correspondence between different modalities. The primary contribution of the thesis is the Multimodal Analytics Framework (MAF), a collaborative ensemble framework for stream and batch processing along with cues from multiple input modalities like language, visuals and metadata to combine benefits from both low-latency and high-throughput. The framework is a five-step process: Data ingestion. As a first step towards Big Data analytics, a high velocity, fault-tolerant streaming data acquisition pipeline is proposed through a distributed big data setup, followed by mining and searching patterns in it while data is still in transit. The data ingestion methods are demonstrated using Hadoop ecosystem tools like Kafka and Flume as sample implementations. Decision making on the ingested data to use the best-fit tools and methods. In Big Data Analytics, the primary challenges often remain in processing heterogeneous data pools with a one-method-fits all approach. The research introduces a decision-making system to select the best-fit solutions for the incoming data stream. This is the second step towards building a data processing pipeline presented in the thesis. The decision-making system introduces a Fuzzy Graph-based method to provide real-time and offline decision-making. Lifelong incremental machine learning. In the third step, the thesis describes a Lifelong Learning model at the processing layer of the analytical pipeline, following the data acquisition and decision making at step two for downstream processing. Lifelong learning iteratively increments the training model using a proposed Multi-agent Lambda Architecture (MALA), a collaborative ensemble architecture between the stream and batch data. As part of the proposed MAF, MALA is one of the primary contributions of the research.The work introduces a general-purpose and comprehensive approach in hybrid learning of batch and stream processing to achieve lifelong learning objectives. Improving machine learning results through ensemble learning. As an extension of the Lifelong Learning model, the thesis proposes a boosting based Ensemble method as the fourth step of the framework, improving lifelong learning results by reducing the learning error in each iteration of a streaming window. The strategy is to incrementally boost the learning accuracy on each iterating mini-batch, enabling the model to accumulate knowledge faster. The base learners adapt more quickly in smaller intervals of a sliding window, improving the machine learning accuracy rate by countering the concept drift. Cross-modal integration between text, image, video and metadata for more comprehensive data coverage than a text-only dataset. The final contribution of this thesis is a new multimodal method where three different modalities: text, visuals (image and video) and metadata, are intertwined along with real-time and batch data for more comprehensive input data coverage than text-only data. The model is validated through a detailed case study on the contemporary and relevant topic of the COVID-19 pandemic. While the remainder of the thesis deals with text-only input, the COVID-19 dataset analyzes both textual and visual information in integration. Post completion of this research work, as an extension to the current framework, multimodal machine learning is investigated as a future research direction
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